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Pre-victory CBS poll: Obama Leads McCain - Good News. But there is some bad news.

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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 08:53 PM
Original message
Pre-victory CBS poll: Obama Leads McCain - Good News. But there is some bad news.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/04/opinion/polls/main4154051.shtml

The bad news first, 12% of Democratic voters say they will not vote for Obama. That's up from 8% in 2004.

The good news: Obama still beats McCain outside of the MOE and has a ton of time to get these Democrats back into the fold.

A 6 point national lead doesn't mean much, though, if he loses the electoral college. It's not clear how these Clinton voters will impact him in places that the Democrats need to win in November.
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Bleacher Creature Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 08:55 PM
Response to Original message
1. I think you are comparing apples and oranges.
Edited on Wed Jun-04-08 08:56 PM by abernste
8% of Democrats "defected" to Bush (what real Democrat would vote for him?) in NOVEMBER of 2004. For that number to only be 12% ONE day after the primary ended isn't too shabby.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. That's why I said the good news is...
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dubeskin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 08:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. That 12% is right now
Wait until Election Day, and I can guarantee that that number will have dropped considerably.

Likewise, the way it's looking, Clinton won't be on Obama's ticket.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 08:57 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. I agree, this is really good news for Obama.
The fact it's only 12%, after the most heated primary season in Democratic history, shows some good signs. The makings are there for an Obama landslide.
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Jackpine Radical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 08:58 PM
Response to Original message
5. The news is better than you think. I expect a lot of those Clinton voters
Edited on Wed Jun-04-08 09:00 PM by Jackpine Radical
to get over their mad and return to the fold. Sometimes anger momentarily overrides good sense. I mean, really, most Hillary voters are intelligent, empathetic, decent humans who are pro-choice, anti-war, pro-universal health care, and don't want to see the Supreme Court pusjed to the right for the next 2 generations. Obama wasn't my first choice. He wasn't my second choice either. But I'm gonna work for him and vote for him.
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mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 10:31 PM
Response to Reply #5
13. Hillary wasn't my first choice (just one ahead of Obama)
Thanks jackpine I needed that. I always vote Dem (except when I wrote in McCarthy in 68)
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Jackpine Radical Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Those were the days, my friend.
We thought they'd never end.

At least I did. I was still in the Army, a few months out of Vietnam at the time of that election.
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
6. Up from 8% in 2004?
Obama wasn't running 04
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Mojambo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
7. 12% doesn't seem so bad.
How many Republicans is McCain presently losing?
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KSCFAN Donating Member (104 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 09:23 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. Me for one.
OK I'm only registered Republican to vote for Ron Paul. But I'll be voting Obama in the fall.
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CaliforniaPeggy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 11:12 PM
Response to Reply #11
16. Welcome to DU, my dear KSCFAN!
:hi:
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NYC Liberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-05-08 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #7
19. McCain was winning only ~70-73% of the vote in the primaries
AFTER he became the nominee! Should tell ya something.
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stillcool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 09:14 PM
Response to Original message
8. It is up to us...
we need to register more voters, and promote our candidate. Those whose minds will not be changed need to be left alone. Move on to someone who gives a shit about the future.
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rurallib Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 09:19 PM
Response to Original message
9. How many repubs won't vote for McSame?
Like all of freeperland for instance.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 09:20 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. I'm guessing it'll go higher, too, as the election nears.
By July 1st, Obama will have a 10+ point lead on McCain.
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ShadowLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 09:26 PM
Response to Original message
12. Polls also show many dems who won't vote for Obama hold false beliefs about McCain
Less then a month ago one poll found that a large number (I forget the number, but it was a big majority) of Clinton supporters who claim they'd vote for McCain over Obama have false beliefs about McCain's stances on issues. For example a lot of them think that McCain is prochoice, even though he's been consistently prolife. They gave other examples to, but I don't remember them.
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Thrill Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 10:32 PM
Response to Original message
14. As usual......Stupid ass Democrats. This is how Bush got two terms
Republicans sit back and laugh every Presidential Election. As Democrats jump to cross over against their own best interest.
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CakeGrrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-04-08 11:19 PM
Response to Original message
17. This is where Hillary really needs to step up and do some repair work
since she did much, including up to yesterday, to keep driving the wedge between "her supporters" and Obama.

The pundits are trying to talk up her 'bargaining power', but the Dems should be putting the onus on her to repair the damage she's done by crying "foul" about being pushed out of the race and beating the "disenfranchisement" drum. Her most fervent followers are only going to listen to her if they're going to listen to anyone.
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notesdev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-05-08 12:23 AM
Response to Original message
18. What percent of Republicans won't vote for McCain?
I'm guessing the number is a lot higher than 12 percent, numbers in the 20-25% range wouldn't terribly surprise me.

Either way, numbers this far out from the election aren't reliable. The Democratic candidate typically makes significant gains as elections head towards November.

And Obama is a MUCH better candidate than Kerry. Kerry was a big time out of touch elitist, and Obama definitely does not have that problem. He hit the right message at the right time for the right reasons.
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