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Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil

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Extend a Hand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 09:06 PM
Original message
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4112#more

31 Billion barrels per year

With production running at 86 million barrels per day, that means we are consuming 31 billion barrels of oil every year. It is a sobering thought that by the time the Sun sets upon the whole of the North Sea, it will have produced enough oil to fuel planet Earth for just 2 years. To keep the oil party going we need to discover a "new North Sea" every two years and the last time we managed that rate of discovery was in the late 1980s, 20 years ago. We have been living off savings since then, and the bank balance is running down. It is not possible to get an oil overdraft or to create an energy instrument to magic oil and energy out of nothing. There is no choice other than to reduce our oil consumption and it is much better that we do this in a controlled way than to let high energy prices and inflation rip through our economies - which is exactly what is happening now.
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Teaser Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
1. definitely part of it, yes...
.
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lapfog_1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 09:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. Cantarell is worse - n/t
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The_Casual_Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 09:15 PM
Response to Original message
3. The North Sea is what saved us during the early eighties.
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Extend a Hand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #3
11. that and prudhoe bay
coming online in 1977 and then peaked in 1998
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Democrats_win Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 09:16 PM
Response to Original message
4. Conservation & North Sea crude brought OPEC to its knees by 1986.
OPEC was so concerned that Saudi Arabia opened the flood gates. Price: just $10 per bbl.

Today, we have NO conservation and no new oil fields. Don't you think we ought to start getting busy? We need leadership and a president who works FOR America, not against it.
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lovuian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 09:23 PM
Response to Original message
5. its definitely a factor
all of this just squandered
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ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 09:25 PM
Response to Original message
6. And what will next weeks reason for high oil prices be?
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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 10:56 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. Declining field of the week
Great idea! Each week we can feature another declining mega-field - North Sea this week, North Slope next week, then Cantarell, then Ghawar...

Then maybe by the end of the year, people will realize that production has maxed out worldwide and is starting to decline. On second thought, nah -- that's such a boring reason. Now, back to our usual programming...

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ColbertWatcher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 12:03 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. Excellent idea!
We can add to that weekly reminder how much money is being made off the speculation markets as well.

Information is not your enemy.
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TransitJohn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 01:50 AM
Response to Reply #15
21. It is a great idea.
Who has the time to put together a daily post for the Peak Oil Group like the "Stock Market Watch" in LBN?
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 01:36 AM
Response to Reply #8
18. We are also running low on copper. 6 Bil people will do that to you.
Edited on Mon Jun-09-08 02:12 AM by Leopolds Ghost
Fortunately copper is a recyclable resource.

And it's found in various places, whereas
oil is only found in certain types of rock.

Bougainville Island was producing 70% of the
world's copper in the 1990s, so Australia
invaded it to keep it under the sovereignty
of British client state, PNG.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 01:33 AM
Response to Reply #6
17. Huh?! this was all predicted 5-10 years ago.
The nonexistent Central Asian mega-field was supposed to save us.
That's why we ignored Afghanistan.
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FogerRox Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 10:12 PM
Response to Original message
7. KNR . . . . baby !! ! ! Before oil hits $150
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prolifedemq Donating Member (44 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 11:11 PM
Response to Original message
9. Hardly
The reason oil is so expensive is fear in the market. The main market is being played out like oil futures. There's oil, its just either the dollar is too weak or people are so scared that demand goes of because of perceived future shortage.

It's simple to stop it you put some laws in place to outlaw perceived future costs being inflated prematurely.
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Extend a Hand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 11:15 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. did you read the article?
how then do you explain the declining production? and why do you think we will be able to find oilfields of that size every 2 years since we haven't since 1980?
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prolifedemq Donating Member (44 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. fact indeed
That the major reason have to do with foreign oil; and why declining production does have a effect, its minimal.

We have oil fields we can use; mostly in Alaska; but they are there. The main problems with oil prices have to do with competition and war scares.
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Extend a Hand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 11:25 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. what fields are you referring to?
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 01:45 AM
Response to Reply #12
20. If you know production has begun to plateau, oil becomes a sure thing investment. Price = up
"We won't run out of cheap land, we've got a whole huge frontier, besides,
beachfront property is a potentially risky investment."

The reason there are no shortages is because production has merely
plateaued, curtailing induced demand (and driving the price up to
correct for unsustainable demand from most American motorists --
including liberals -- to use more gas every single year.)
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Terry in Austin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-08-08 11:56 PM
Response to Reply #9
14. Line forms at the rear
There's a lot of other people declaring what "the reason" is without offering a shred of support or argument.

Understandable, though -- it's often due to withdrawal anxiety.

We're addicted to oil, and now that the stash is starting to dwindle, we circulate a lot of denial stories. They get repeated so frequently that it's more efficient just to call them out by number. For your convenience, they're listed here:

1. It's the greedy oil companies
2. It's the evil BushCo
3. It's the greedy speculators
4. It's the weak dollar
5. It's the OPEC monopoly

So for instance, in your case, all you'd have to say is "three and four" and we'd know the ones you like. Is this a great board, or what? Welcome to DU, pro life dem -- I hope your stay is rewarding.

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gullwing300 Donating Member (204 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #9
16. That is the funniest thing I have read in decades.
:eyes:
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 01:40 AM
Response to Reply #9
19. Why not inflate prematurely? that is how market is SUPPOSED to correct demand for declining resource
What do you prefer, passing a law to subsidize cheap oil?

Unlike milk and bread, oil is an unsustainable bad habit.

Especially when passenger miles per person doubles every
20 years and Americans declare they can't live without
their car... but refuse to repeal laws prohibiting
pedestrian-scale development.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 02:03 AM
Response to Original message
22. Did the people who post on these threads read the article?
The folks who say oil price is a bubble and must be brought down
with subsidies or price controls...

(interesting folks don't feel the same way about "artificially"
inflated housing costs that kept the economy afloat after 2000
by sucking money from poorer, first time homeowners into the
pocket of wealthy homebuyers for whom 80% of new construction
is built.)

Interestingly, price controls on a limited resource would create
instant artificial scarcity, as Soviet mismanagement sadly show.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jun-09-08 02:09 AM
Response to Original message
23. World oil discoveries declining ever since 1960
Edited on Mon Jun-09-08 02:10 AM by Leopolds Ghost
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