Would a 2007 Recession Clinch 2008 for the Democrats?

http://biz.yahoo.com/usnews/070306/070305_would_a_2007_recession_clinch.html

It's been humorously suggested that Barack Obama's landslide 70-to-27 percent victory against Alan Keyes in the Illinois 2004 U.S. Senate race had one minor silver lining for Republicans. After that blowout, they knew exactly how big their core, crawl-across-broken-glass-to-vote-GOP base was in the Prairie State.

With President Bush's approval ratings hovering in the high 20s to low 30s, you might think that the Iraq war has helped identify the size of the die-hard-Republican base nationally?despite an economy that has expanded at a 3.5 percent annual pace during the past three years and added more than 6 million new jobs.

But what if, along with foreign-policy troubles, Bush was hit by an economic downturn? Last week's stock market plunge and a string of weak economic reports have sure upped that possibility in many people's minds. And if you think that is the last thing Team Bush needs to deal with right now, aspiring GOP presidential candidates are probably thinking the same thing.

As it is, the betting markets?though not the public-opinion polls?are hinting at an overwhelming Democratic win in 2008. Would a recession make 2008 a fait accompli for Dems? Earlier today, I asked two veteran Washington watchers that very question. Here is what they told me, via E-mail:

we would crush the GOP.