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Anybody who tells you this election is going to be close is totally full of it.

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dave123williams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 02:44 AM
Original message
Anybody who tells you this election is going to be close is totally full of it.

Look at it this way:

The MSM are desperate to tell you that it's close, within 5 points.

What they fail to mention is this:

The GOP turned out 21 million in the primaries.

The Democrats turned out 38 million.

That's it. That's the election, right there.

Anybody who tells you this is going to be close is interested in preserving the status quo, and nothing more.



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MonkeyFunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 02:53 AM
Response to Original message
1. Sorry
I don't think that tells us much of anything, beyond the fact that the Republicans had their race sewn up early, and the Democrats had a tight battle to the end.
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John Q. Citizen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 02:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. I think both you and the OP are incorrect. While the race isn't over, the Dem primary was
remarkably record setting in a number of ways that bode well for the Dems.

So, we haven't won yet, but it looks pretty good.
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MonkeyFunk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:02 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. OH, I think things look great for Dems
but I wouldn't use that one statistic as evidence of much of anything.
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:15 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Lots of Republicans Voted in the Democratic Primary
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dave123williams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #1
50. Really. You don't think the high Dem turnout was reflective of disgust with the status quo?
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snot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:08 AM
Response to Original message
4. y'all seem to be forgetting the electronix --
that's all they need, besides plausible spin, which they're putting in place now.
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mucifer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:42 AM
Response to Reply #4
7. yeah and don't forget they are gonna say people are more racist than how they answer the polls
That's gonna be the excuse.
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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:43 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. A. They don't want to. B. They can't afford it.
They don't have nearly the money they did, what with DeLay, Cunningham, and Abramoff out of play.
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liberalla Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 04:13 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. snot - I haven't forgotten, and that's exactly my concern
All things considered this should be a slam dunk for the Dems. However, the Repukes have so much to lose and are desperate to retain power, I don't put anything past them. I won't relax until it's over and Obama has won. Even then, we have to be vigilant and watch what's going on in the shadows, and clean up the mess.

a walk down memory lane...

It's the Tabulators, Stupid! The theft of the 2004 Election, a short retrospective

by Kip Humphrey
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Stevepol Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 04:56 AM
Response to Reply #4
12. Exactly! There were similar figures for the Dems with Kerry.
comparisons of party registrations, new registrations, etc. etc. etc. etc.

None of it meant anything, and anybody who called attention to the obvious became immediately a conspiracy theorist.
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WritersBlock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 05:14 AM
Response to Reply #4
13. BINGO!! Plausible spin. That is all this "close race" nonsense is. And we'd better be ready.


We are *not* going to cakewalk into the White House with Obama.

Too many people still get all of their news from the MSM, and they're being continually conditioned to expect a close race.

So when that miraculous number flip happens in the middle of that Tuesday night, and all those people wake up to a President-elect McCain, they're gonna accept it without question because "it was a close race all along, wasn't it?"

And we will be, once again, the whining conspiracy theorists and sore losers when we question it.

We can't be complacent.


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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:25 AM
Response to Reply #4
43. That and the already stated 48 hour win by Lumpy McSame.
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Golden Raisin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:38 AM
Response to Original message
6. Do not get complacent
or give up vigilance. November is a LONG way off and much can happen. Also remember Truman/Dewey. Anything can happen.
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provis99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:47 AM
Response to Original message
9. the race is going to be close. So say most political scientists.
Edited on Sun Jul-13-08 03:47 AM by provis99
Are they full of it, too?
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dave123williams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #9
56. 38 million to 21 million. You do the math.
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grillo7 Donating Member (243 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 04:14 AM
Response to Original message
11. Remember, Kerry and Gore both won the popular vote...
and by huge margins, I think. The election comes down to the electoral college, so it doesn't matter if there were technically more democrats voting in the primaries than republicans, it's all about where those votes are taking place at.
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Loudmxr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 05:40 AM
Response to Original message
14. You are also assuming that McCain will be the Repug nominee.
Let's face it we're not the only ones thinking that he's a lameass.

Three letters..J-E-B. The Bush who should have been King..uh..President.

Fresh. Tanned. Unvetted. Ready. And best of all CONSERVATIVE!!!

:evilgrin::evilgrin::evilgrin::evilgrin::evilgrin:
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DeltaLitProf Donating Member (459 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 06:34 AM
Response to Reply #14
17. Not remotely viable
Any candidate named Bush would be radioactive right now. And that's probably going to be true for decades.
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Fumesucker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 06:03 AM
Response to Original message
15. Two words..
October surprise.
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fasttense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 06:25 AM
Response to Original message
16. But remember they also have those black robed politicians in their pockets.
All they need do is tie up a state with a large number of electoral college delegates in court and then take it to their puppets on the supreme court. The dancing supremes always do the jig for their masters.

When, if, it goes to the Supremes then the only way We the People will get our voice heard is to march on Washington and stay there until Congress acts.
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 06:59 AM
Response to Original message
18. I agree totally
Edited on Sun Jul-13-08 07:06 AM by not_this_time
Except the figures I got were that at the end of the Republican primary, 17 million voted for repubs and 38 million voted for Dems. That was at the end of the repub primary and did not include addtional follow on Dem voters.

One thing you NEVER heard on the 'news' reports on the MSM was the total number of voters. They were very careful not to show the disparity between the volume of voters. That is part of their MO. To steal an election, it has to appear to be close. Like in 2000 and 2004. That's the only way they can say they won. If the ratio of Dem voters to repbus os 3:1, then Rove et al can't play their little game.

The repubs pay millions and millions of dollars a year to polling organizations. They expect the right result when they spend that money. And the money they use is run through the Republican Governors Association, a supposed 527 where there are no restrictions on the amount of contributions. You can see all the under-the-table payments they make and all the companies and individuals that donate to the Repub party through this backdoor organization here:

http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/527/republican_governors_association.asp

There is one problem, tho....it takes about 5 minutes to bring this link up. Gee, I wonder why? The contributors are a who's who of who is responsible for destroying America and the expenditures show how the republican mafia spend their money. Why would the Republican Governors Association be paying for Rove's transportation to swanky hotels? The Republican Governors Association is the key to it all. It is interesting reading when you can finally get on.
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rock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 07:10 AM
Response to Original message
19. It's going to be close
You can't sensibly compare turn-out between primaries and generals.
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 07:16 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. It's not even close
3/4 of this country hate the bush mafia. Good try tho.
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dave123williams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 11:43 AM
Response to Reply #19
51. Why not? Primary voters are highly likely to vote in the general.
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ileus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 07:37 AM
Response to Original message
21. Obama = 49 states, granted not the 50 Hillary would have won but it's a start.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 07:38 AM
Response to Original message
22. 100% correct
They are going to be routed.
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Fumesucker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 07:40 AM
Response to Original message
23. Two more words.
Closeted racists.
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 07:55 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. They are already included in the repub vote.
They may be 'closeted' but they are not secretive. if they are racists, closted or not, they have already cast their vote in the primary. 17 million vs. 38 million. And that was just up until the repubs ended their primary.

IT IS NOT CLOSE. Those who get paid by the bush mafia would want you to think that. IT IS NOT CLOSE. There is an overwhelming number of people in this country who are mad as hell and aren't going to take it anymore.

That 'It will be close" propaganda would work if the country was only marginally screwed up. It is screwed up every way it can be screwed up. So you guys saying it will be close....don't even try.

p.s. as i am writing this, Rasmussen poll has mccain-ain't-able and Obama neck and neck at 43%. Research Rasmussen and see who pays them.



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Fumesucker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:07 AM
Response to Reply #24
27. I'm of the age and race where people automatically assume I'm a racial bigot.
There are a lot more "Democrats" who are closeted racists than you might imagine.

"We cannot enter into alliances until we are acquainted with the designs of our neighbors." - Sun Tzu
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:12 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. That is a ridiculous statement.
Age and race does not automatically make you a racial bigot. Only YOU can make you a racial bigot.
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Fumesucker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #29
59. Try reading for comprehension...
I said people *assume* I'm a racial bigot, like them.

Never said I'm a racial bigot.
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salguine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 07:58 AM
Response to Original message
25. Don't get cocky. It's not won till it's won. And I still believe
it'll be stolen, frankly. It will be stolen and nobody will do a thing about it.

I wish I was wrong.
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:08 AM
Response to Reply #25
28. Of course they will try to steal it.
But if it is common knowledge that 3/4 of this country wants change, they will have a hard time convincing the citizens that mccain won fairly. Then, there WOULD be insurrection.


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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #28
32. .
:spray: Then, there WOULD be insurrection. :rofl: Sure thing. Just like in the 2000 sElection and in 2004, both stolen elections and NO ONE did anything about either and the citizenry accepted the results with little opposition. I wouldn't expect anything different this time around, either.
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:04 AM
Response to Reply #32
35. We were a lot more ignorant in 2000 and 2004.
The veil of ignorance has been lifted and the citizens of this country are VERY well aware of what is happening. We had to go through a process similar to the stages of grief and we are now aware of the truth. And yes, there will be an uprising if McCain wins. And if there is none, then we deserve what we get.

If bush attacks Iran, he must understand that he will be delivering the final blow to America and the destruction will be complete. We can call for a national strike to protest his intentions, but without adequate leadership this won't happen. Ergo, without leadership, we are rudderless and utterly powerless to stop him. And he knows it.
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exothermic Donating Member (570 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:59 AM
Response to Reply #28
34. insurrection? wtf???
in your wildest wet dreams...
:eyes:
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:22 AM
Response to Reply #34
42. An insurrection can take many forms.
There is a breaking point. We haven't yet reached it obviously. In your wildest wet dreams, don't think it won't come.
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tigersumtin Donating Member (285 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:30 AM
Response to Reply #25
30. I hope you are wrong too.
Thanks to the hard work of a small group of people, It should be a lot harder to steal this election than it was the last and the one before that. The pitfalls an inaccuracies of electronic voting have been exposed, and more voters are aware... Even so, be prepared I'm sure they will try... What will you do if they do? Hmmmmmmmm
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IDemo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:00 AM
Response to Original message
26. Two additional words
Voter disenfranchisement
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JohnnyLib2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:31 AM
Response to Original message
31. Once upon a time, long ago, I supported a candidate who had big money and many electoral votes.

The "conventional wisdom" was that this candidate had it tied up.
Some supporters, fairly or not, were even accused of being cocky and overconfident. Having been around a long time, I wasn't.

My candidate did not win. Live and learn.

Meanwhile, the Democrats seem to be in a very good position as of now.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 08:52 AM
Response to Original message
33. primary vote numbers have NOTHING to do with general election voting
the democrats had a remarkably intense media focus on the entire neck-and-neck race for a LONG period of time. close races always bring out more voters.

republicans had a yawner, and after some brief shifting early on, mccain emerged as a very clear front-runner, and had it all sewn up fairly early. that always depresses the vote count.


that said, obama does indeed have an excellent chance at a clear victory, if not an actual landslide, IF we keep up the good news and the enthusiasm and the hard work.
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zanne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:07 AM
Response to Original message
36. I totally agree with Dave123.
There's no way a washed out, milquetoast, "I manage of offend everybody" McCain is going to come in close against a young, fresh, dynamic, intelligent man who represents a change from eight years of misery. So many Republicans don't like McCain and plan on just staying home on election day. I'm a phonebanker for two different campaigns and one other health voting group and I hear these things all the time.
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lynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
37. Not willing to count my chickens before they hatch -
- as I don't think the primaries are any indication of what will occur in the general.

How many Hillary supporters will vote McCain or not vote at all?
How many GOP'ers didn't bother to vote in the primary because McCain was already the presumed nominee?
How many GOP'ers crossed over in the primary and voted Hillary or Obama just to screw with our process?

The primary and the general are two different animals. Don't make the mistake of thinking that one is a reflection of the other.
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #37
39. If the majority of the people in this country don't see the implications
of voting for McCain, and if the majority is that stupid, then by GOD we deserve what we get.
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bowens43 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
38. Don't fool yourself.
McCain is a much stronger candidate then bush ever was. It is going to be close.
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dave123williams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 11:45 AM
Response to Reply #38
52. Really. The GOP is going to convince 19 million Democrats to vote McCain. Really.
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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #38
57. Do they pay you for working on Sunday?
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:19 AM
Response to Original message
40. That's 59 million votes in the primary. There will be 120 million voters.
Edited on Sun Jul-13-08 09:21 AM by TexasObserver
So it's not as easy as looking at the primary votes.

And then there's the cheating that takes place by GOP.

It ain't over til it's over, although I do think Obama will win 300 plus electoral votes.
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fishwax Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:20 AM
Response to Original message
41. We have a chance at a large and historic victory, BUT
it's hardly a guarantee. The disparity in primary votes was impressive (and existed even before the GOP nomination was sewn up for McCain), but it's hardly conclusive. A landslide is certainly possible, but will require a lot of work.
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DailyGrind51 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:29 AM
Response to Original message
44. Voter turn-out is EVERYTHING!
Even back in Iowa, Obama, by himself, attracted more voters than all of the Republican candidates combined. If Democrats remain enthusiastic, they will slaughter Republicans in November, overwhelming any attempt for Rovian fraud.
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lpbk2713 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:31 AM
Response to Original message
45. Here's an article from the Orlando Sentinel in support of your statement.



From yesterday's Sentinel: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/orl-voters1208jul12,0,466937.story

Dems have been outnumbering rethugs in Florida voter registrations seven to one in the past six months.

The rethuglican party is on its way to history's dust heap thanks to BushCo. And I'm glad to see it. :applause:


(Got the link to the article from this DU post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=145x10400 )



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cayuga Donating Member (405 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 09:39 AM
Response to Reply #45
46. We need a research team here to post their State's figures.
A little ooordination will reinforce what we already know, but numbers to back it up will show the bastards we ain't buying their multi-million dollar propaganda ploy.

Anyone want to post the breakdown for their state?
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DailyGrind51 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #45
55. Republicans have no enthusiasm for their candidates,
and will not show up in November. It is one thing for a pollster to call someone up to ask whom they will vote for, and another to get that same person to the polling place on election day.
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norepubsin08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 10:06 AM
Response to Original message
47. We need to be as aggressive
and intimidating as possible...we need to warn this country that if the current powers that be fuck up another election that we will take to the streets and that there will be no business as usual until it's corrected. The one lesson Vietnam taught me was that in order for things to change it takes upper middle class lives and property being at risk to do it!!!
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exothermic Donating Member (570 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 10:23 AM
Response to Reply #47
49. There's no draft now, though.
Much of the "upper middle class" thinks it's doing just fine.
:shrug:
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
48. A bigger win is better. Let's pretend we are behind even if we are not. nt
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Fireweed247 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
53. Manufactured Consent
They are trying to create the idea that McCain has a chance so when they steal it no one will be surprised. It is all to empower the 20% that might vote for him in telling the rest of us to shut up when they steal it.
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dave123williams Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #53
54. Except, this time we aren't going to shut up, are we.
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tigersumtin Donating Member (285 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jul-13-08 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #54
58. You got that right....
Nope!!!!
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