OR-Sen: Smith Leads By 12 in New Poll

A few things seem a bit funky here, most notably Gordon Smith's improbably high 53-29 performance among voters aged 18-34.

The partisan breakdown of the sample, at 37R-41D-22I, is also perhaps a bit suspect. SUSA's partisan sample of Oregon has fluctuated in recent months, from 32R-44D in April to 32R-48D in May to 41R-42D in June. Where lies the truth? CNN's 2004 exit poll pegged turnout as 34R-32D-34I, but surely the landscape is now tinted with a bluer hue four years later. In fact, according to the latest voter registration numbers from the OR SoS, Dems have a 43%-33% voter registration advantage over the GOP as of June. That's a significant advantage that you don't see reflected in SUSA's model.

That said, Merkley's 63-28 performance among Democrats in the poll is of concern, as it could reflect Gordon Smith's recent bipartisan bear-hugs of Barack Obama and lately even John Forbes Kerry (whom Gordo once harshly criticized as advocating "all kinds of socialism"). However, I still think this race is closer than SUSA's latest survey suggests.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Jeff Merkley (D): 37
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 49
Dave Brownlow (C): 8
(MoE: ±4%)


---I thought OR was a liberal state.

New Oregon Senate poll puts Smith at 48% = February 19, 2008


US elections: Republican senators decide to skip party's convention
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/04/uselections2008.johnmccain

.... Oregon senator Gordon Smith, who is running slightly behind Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley in recent polls, has not made a final decision but is unlikely to attend, a spokeswoman said.

"We will use that week to focus on campaigning," said Lindsay Gilbride.

Republican senator Ted Stevens, recently indicted on corruption charges, will not be attending the convention, the National Journal reported.