An Intrade market election prediction based real-money contracts.

The electoral map below is a forecast for the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election in which the presumptive nominees are Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama. The electoral college value for each state is shown, and the states are shaded according to the probability of a win.

The data for this map come from the Intrade prediction market where there are real-money contracts for each individual state based on how it will award its 2008 electoral votes. Traders who predict the outcome correctly are rewarded with the money of those who don't. For more information visit Intrade.com. This map is updated once per week, or whenever there are major changes in the market.





Democrat: 306
Republican: 227
Dead Heat: 5
Total: 538 (270 to win)


Updates & Notes
No major changes since Missouri fell back into McCain's column last week. Both candidates saw their share price weaken in several states this week, but the electoral vote tallies remain the same.

The vote totals shown above represent a "winner take all" scenario based on the candidates winning the states in which they have contracts trading above 55. An expected value approach, where each state's electoral vote is multiplied by the candidates probability of winning yields this:

Dem = 303
Rep = 235

http://electoralmap.net/index.php