A First Glimpse of the Third World War

While a lot of the rest of you are busy worrying over the dirty things that guys seem to be always be doing, I've been taking a look at the other dirty thing that guys are always doing: starting wars. And today we have one helluva scary one cranking up.

Here's what we know so far: Russian and Georgian military forces are shooting at one another in South Ossetia, which is nowhere near Atlanta. Georgia's President, Mikheil Saakashvili, has declared the two nations to be at war, according to the Washington Post.

South Ossetia attempted to assert its independence way back in 1992 and again two years ago. So far, nobody's buying it. There are at least three ethnic groups involved: Ossetians, Georgians, and Russians, and behind that is a complicated back-story of Stalin-era (Stalin was a Georgian) ethnic expulsions and recolonizations. Many Ossetians also live on the Russian side of the border in North Ossetia, and, just to give an example of what I mean by "complicated," many of those Ossetians actually live on land vacated by the Ingush when Stalin expelled them to... well, I don't know where the Ingush went.

The Russian explanation for their counterattack today--it seems the inciting incident came when the Georgian military fired on Russian peacekeepers in the area--is that they are protecting the ethnic Russians in the area. The Georgians, in turn, were trying to put a good wallop on separatist Ossetians and have been fighting them for the past week.

But it's important to remember the one almost invariable rule of war: all wars are fought over resources, in some way, shape, or form.

In this case, it's hard to spot the loot, but my best guess at the moment is this: Georgia desperately wants to become a part of the NATO alliance, which may in turn lead to economic advantages, military assistance, and perhaps even eventual inclusion in the European Union. But they can only get so far with the South Ossetian thorn in their side. Russia, on the other hand, sure as hell doesn't want an historical enemy with a list of grievances a mile long part of NATO and parked square on a vulnerable border. There are strong indications that the Russians have been backing the South Ossetians and another separatist group in Abkhazia.

If the Russians and the Georgians really go toe-to-toe, there is a good chance it could be a long and nasty conflict. Both countries have very similar weapons systems and command structures due to their shared past, and when similar weapons systems confront one another, as happened in the First World War and the American Civil War, stalemate is often the result, leaving victory to the nation which can stand the most attrition (that would be the Russians). Worse, the Russians have a veto on the UN Security Council and likely can spike any attempt to bring in peacekeepers if they don't want them. Still worse, Georgia's already cozy relationship with NATO and the EU might encourage NATO to try its hand at defusing things... and if that doesn't work, well, you can see where it's going.

Let's hope that clear heads prevail and this clash turns out to be a minor scrape. Because if it doesn't, it might just be the beginning of one helluva big-ass war, one in which the United States may become entangled and one which we can't effectively fight (or stop the fighting) because we have one hand tied behind our back in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Philippines, and South America... and maybe Iran.

Anyway, I thought some of you might like a few links and some explanations, with no guarantee that I know what I'm talking about. Some of you may wish to check in on James Dunnigan's Strategy Page. Dunnigan is a conservative fool and never gets the "why" part right, but he's damned good at guessing the "hows."

:rofl:

which was practice for WW3 and global world domination.
It was part of "making America strong again" after Vietnam, OPEC, and the hostage crisis.
PNAC's plans were interupted by Clinton's election,
as soon as Bush Jr was in office, they continued from where they left off.

edit to add: I'm sure there are people in Russia who want to make Russia strong again...

In saying that it is like Grenada. Chances are that it will be like the recent dust up in Kosovo, but there is a lot of animosity between Russia and Georgia. Georgia has strategic value to NATO and the US. There are some reports that US Spec Ops are on the ground acting as advisers to Georgian forces although it is mainly from the conspiracy sites.

Didn't you hear Edwards fucked some chick!??!

I feel something odd in the breeze with this Russian invasion of Georgia. Ivan has never been a slouch at intrigue and with the world economy, Iran, global corporatists bringing down economies seemingly with purpose.... Things have been sucking for some time now but this new development is alerting me in a way I can't quite put my finger on. What's really going on here, it's not about protecting Russian loyalists.

And is using this chance to bring a reasource-rich former territory back into it's fold. Using the "protecting Russian loyalists' excuse to do so. And the fun part about his is their is nothing the US can do about it thanks to Russia's veto power in the UN. And it's vast reasources which europe (and maybe China) needs. In short I think the american mono-polar power age is over and it should (?) make the US think twice about hitting Iran.