Georgian President on BBC live

Clearly Europe is not backing him. He has signed the French ceasefire agreement. He knows he bit off more than he can chew.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/video_and_audio/default.stm

Surely he was not that dumb. Israel supplied him with weaponry, US provided training. I think someone over here gave him the impression, or an agreement that their would be help.

3. Remember Kosovo.

Russia was mightily displeased when the West supported the separation of Kosovo from Serbia and warned of consequences. This might be one of them. Of course, Russia has not argued in this crisis that it is simply doing what the West did in Kosovo - that would undermine its own argument that states should not be broken up without agreement. But everyone knows that underneath, Kosovo is not far from its mind.

8. Are borders in Europe to be sacrosanct for ever?

It has been one of the rules of post-war Europe - borders cannot be changed except by agreement, as say in Czechoslovakia. Perhaps this rule has been applied too inflexibly. Yet governments like that of Georgia are reluctant to give up any territory, even when the local population is so clearly hostile and might be in that state simply as a result of some past arbitrary decision. It was the Soviet Union that created a semi-autonomous region of South Ossetia in Georgia in 1922. Nikita Khrushchev gave Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. Will this lead to trouble one day?

9. August is good month in which to reflect on alliances.

In August 1914, the First World War broke out following the assassination in June of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo. It did so because alliances had been formed in Europe which came into play inexorably. Russia supported Serbia, Germany supported Austria, France supported Russia and Britain came in when Belgium was invaded.

Alliances must not be entered into lightly or unadvisedly. If Georgia had been in Nato, what would have happened?

1. Kennedy and the Bay of Pigs.
2. Leaving the South Vietnamese at the mercy of the Communists.
3. The Kurds after the first Gulf War.

He should have seen this coming.

n/t

As the old saying...when you lie down with dogs, expect to get fleas. Did this asshat think that the U.S. and NATO would rush in to save his sorry ass after provoking Russia? Methinks this will be a fatal mistake on his part...another "success" of the "New World Order".

And how does this fool feel seeing his pal boooshie hanging with Pootie...with friends like that who needs friends?

:hi:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7553390.stm
<snip>

7. The West still does not know how to deal with Russia.

Some of the old Cold War arguments are resurfacing, with no consensus about what to do. There are the neo-conservatives, led by US Vice-President Dick Cheney (and supported by Republican presidential candidate John McCain) who see Georgia (and Ukraine) as flag bearers for freedom which must be supported. In due course, they argue, Russia will be forced to change, just as the old Soviet Union was.

Against that is the argument, expressed to the BBC for example on Sunday by the former British Foreign Secretary Lord Owen, that it is "absurd" to treat Russia like the Soviet Union and that Georgia made a miscalculation in South Ossetia for which it is now paying.

Although the fighting over South Ossetia is not over, and fighting for another Georgian enclave, Abkhazia, looks like developing, it is perhaps not too early to learn some tentative lessons from the crisis.

1. Do not punch a bear on the nose unless it is tied down.

Did President Saakashvili miscalculate?

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili must have thought that Russia would not react strongly when he sent his forces in on the eve of the Olympic games to regain control of a territory he had insisted must remain part of Georgia, albeit with some form of autonomy.

Yet Russia was always likely to respond. It already had forces there, leading the peacekeeping force agreed back in the easier days of 1992 between President Boris Yeltsin of Russia and President Edward Shevardnadze of Georgia, himself the former Soviet foreign minister who helped bring the Cold War to an end.

Russia has been supporting the separatists in South Ossetia and handed out Russian passports to the population, thereby enabling it to claim that it was defending its own citizens.

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He sure sounds whipped. Serious miscalculation here.

Are his days numbered? He lost Ossetia, and will likely lose Abkhazia. He could lose Georgia.

The Independent just asked him about his previous charisma and confidence and whether both had disappeared.
He is history - beaten by believing Bush, Cheney and Condi.

In essence, Ossestia wasn't lost...Georgia never had sovereignty over the area and had been an "autonomous" state since 1991...more ethnically, politically and economically tied to Russia. The same goes for Abkhazia...they, too, broke away and the Tbillisi government has never had any authority there either. Just cause lines are drawn on a map doesn't mean that's what's on the ground there. 300 plus years of Russian involvement in the region...especially during the Soviet days...left large pockets of Russians in the region...people who never supported the Tblissi government.

This over-reach could be a fatal move for the Georgian President...unlike the U.S., most countries aren't too fancy on losing wars and prestige. Hope he's paid his bill to Blackwater...and keeps it up-to-date...cause he won't be able to walk the streets if the current scenario continues to play out.