China's Georgia War Lesson: Today's Breakaway Bites Back Later

By Viola Gienger and Dune Lawrence

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Russia's military slap at Georgia may give China added justification to keep its own ethnic separatists in line.

The war plays to China's argument that it must keep ethnic regions firmly under control, lest they become autonomous enough to cause problems for the central government, as Georgia has done for Moscow since becoming a pro-Western democracy after protests in 2003 threw out a government friendlier to Russia.

To the Chinese, the Georgia conflict ``is all the result of the inability of Russian leaders to control their country, and allowing ethnic divisions to dominate'' after the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991, said Robert Ross, a professor at Boston College specializing in China and East Asia. ``So the lesson for China in this is that we must be all-the-more sure that we control our ethnic groups.''

With the heft to counter U.S. political and economic dominance since the Cold War ended, China has been wary about Washington's support for the former Soviet Union's so-called ``color revolutions'' -- Georgia's 2003 Rose Revolution, Ukraine's 2004-2005 Orange Revolution and Kyrgyzstan's 2005 Tulip Revolution, named for the hues or flowers favored by street protesters.

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China probably views Russia's flexing of its military muscles as a mixed blessing, Ross said. While countering U.S. influence might benefit China, the resurgent strength of a one- time foe in 1969 border clashes and earlier parrying over Mongolia also is unsettling, he said. And, just as Georgia would like reassert authority over the pro-Moscow breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, China wants Taiwan back under its control.

``Is this a precedent for intervention that could be used to keep Taiwan out of China or separate Tibet from China?'' said Phil Deans, a professor of international affairs at Temple University in Tokyo. ``This dispute could cut either way for the Chinese, and so the safest thing to do is to remain silent.''

Low Profile

Since Russia sent troops into South Ossetia on Aug. 8, China has addressed the conflict publicly with three statements on its Foreign Ministry Web site, the longest just three sentences, calling for a peaceful resolution. China also kept a low profile during a United Nations debate on Georgia.

The conflict provides what China may consider a useful distraction after the months leading up to the Olympic Games in Beijing saw international protests over China's harsh treatment of Tibetans and other ethnic minorities and intolerance of political dissent, Huang said.

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