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Satyagrahi Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 01:50 PM
Original message
What Really Happened in Georgia/Ossetia
Edited on Wed Aug-20-08 01:55 PM by Satyagrahi
The continued Russian occupation of Georgia is totally unacceptable, but that shouldn't detract from the fact that it was Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili who began the war by ordering an attack on Ossetia.

The plan was to capture the Ossetian capital and to block the strategically important Roki tunnel, according to Stratfor:

"Fundamentally there are only two locations in this conflict that matter: the capital and the southern end of the Roki Tunnel, which connects South Ossetia to Russia. The capital is the only city of note in South Ossetia, and the Roki is the only means for Russia to shuttle forces to and from the territory. The tunnel is only two lanes wide and is an excellent choke point. If Georgia can capture and hold those two targets, South Ossetia’s 15-year rebellion will in essence be over."
Stratfor, Decision time in Moscow, August 7


Today Georgian national security adviser Alexander Lomaia admitted that this was indeed the plan:

"Alexander Lomaia is Mikheil Saakashvili's right-hand man and was partly responsible for giving the go-ahead for the Georgian military action in South Ossetia. But the operation had a completely different outcome from what he was expecting.

"Our aim was to block the Roki Tunnel (between Russian and South Ossetia). For some time it had been the route of illegal support for the separatists. We thought that after we had done that we would be able to negotiate with the Russians."


What followed was a large-scale Russian assault. "It was an enormous surprise," he says. He was also surprised when the West gave Georgia only verbal support.
http://www.radionetherlands.nl/currentaffairs/region/europe/080819-russia-georgia-gori


In the morning of August 7, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza was informed that the Georgians had made the decision to attack Ossetia:

"Matthew Bryza, an official at the State Department, says he was woken at 2am on August 7th to be told that the Georgians were lifting the ceasefire. “I tried to persuade them not to do it,” he says."
http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11920992


2 a.m. in Washington is 10 a.m. local time in Tbilisi.

At the same time, or perhaps a little earlier, U.S. military trainers in Georgia learned that the unit they were training was preparing for battle:

The Americans arrived for work Aug. 7 to unexpectedly find training was over for the unit they had been assigned to for three weeks, the 4th Brigade: The Georgian soldiers were sitting on their rucksacks and singing folk songs as an Orthodox priest walked among them chanting and waving incense.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j6kA_-cfbTg2ZfWRQ4AI5wmlMxMgD92KSSI80


This is important because the Georgian Defense Minister Davit Kezerashvili now claims that the decision to move the troops to the front was only made at 6 p.m.:

But by evening, Kezerashvili said, the Georgian side had had enough.

"At 6, I gave the order to prepare everything, to go out from the bases,".
Washington Post


And the Georgian president claims that the decision to lift the ceasefire was made at 11:50 p.m.:

At 11 p.m., Saakashvili said, he received the first reports that Russian units were passing through the tunnel.

"We started to check, and around 11:50, I got confirmation that Russian armor was coming in," Saakashvili said. "So what we do now? I said, 'Now we respond with fire.'
Washington Post


Georgia initially justified the attack by claiming that it was in response to heavy shelling from the Ossetian side.

However, the OSCE monitors on the ground were unable to confirm this:

OSCE monitors in Tskhinvali also did not record any outgoing heavy artillery fire from the South Ossetian side at that time, according to a Western diplomat with access to the organization's on-the-ground reporting.
Washington Post


After the defeat, Saakashvili began to claim that he had ordered the attack because "Russian units" were already "passing through the tunnel" on the night of August 7.

However, this seems to clash with Alexander Lomaia's remarks today that the Russian response "was an enormous surprise".

Interestingly, the official "Letter dated 8 August 2008 from the Permanent Representative of Georgia to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council" also makes no mention of any Russian troop movement prior to the Georgian attack:

"At 5.30 a.m., the first Russian troops entered
South Ossetia through the Roki tunnel".
http://www.undemocracy.com/S-PV-5952/page_2">(S/2008/536)


According to the Georgian defense minister, the shelling of South Ossetia’s capital city Tskhinvali had begun "at 12 at night".


Key Battle at Gufta/Kurta Bridge

One commentator, analyzing the Georgian defeat ("Could the Georgians Have Done Better?"), unknowingly discovers the daring plan on which the Georgian attack was based:

"The route by which Russian troops, weapons and humanitarian supplies came south while thousands of refugees went north is a single narrow road from the Roki Tunnel built in 1985. Readers are invited to “drive” this road on Google (Maps). If one does so, one comes to a large bridge where the road turns south in a defile at 42°21'29.61"N 43°54'2.58"E. This location is about 25 kilometres from the South Ossetian border.

Had Georgian forces got to that location, blown the bridge and set up an ambush position, what would we be looking at today?"
Russia Blog


What the analyst apparently doesn't know is that this is precisely what the Georgian special forces tried to do (but failed to achieve):

Georgia also calculated that by dawn the following the day, the world's attention would be focused on Beijing for the opening of the Olympic Games. Its US-trained Georgian army therefore formed an audacious plan to sabotage the bridge more than 100 miles behind enemy lines. The operation, however, was a only a partial success. The bridge was damaged and almost one dozen Russian vehicles were blown up, but the Russians then regrouped and repulsed the Georgians.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2570754/Georgia-conflict-How-a-flat-tyre-took-the-Caucasus-to-war.html


With the bridge still intact, a column of one hundred fifty tanks, armored personnel carriers and other vehicles of Russia's 58th army was able cross the border into South Ossetia at 3:47 p.m. on August 8 and when they reached Tskhinvali a few hours later the battle was effectively over.
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Life Long Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
1. It's war propaganda
Russian troops are in Georgia TO keep the peace from this getting out of control after the same Georgian troops that were trained by the US three weeks before Georgia shot and bombed Russians.
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Satyagrahi Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:22 PM
Response to Reply #1
6. I see no problem with Russian troops remaining in Ossetia, at least
for the time being. The problem is that they seem to keep occupying other areas of Georgia (like Gori) as well, and that is unacceptable.
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Cleita Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:03 PM
Response to Original message
2. Also, there are rumors that Karl Rove and John McCain could be at the bottom
of this. I hope some investigative reporters like our own lala raw raw gets to the bottom of this onion that needs to be peeled to the core.
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Satyagrahi Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #2
10. It is a win-win situation for the neocons.
I have no proof, but I have personally no doubt that they knew in advance of Georgia's plans to attack Ossetia and perhaps even encouraged them (with the usual split between Cheney hawks fanning the flames and Rice/Hadley doves trying to contain them).

A new Cold War with Russia is great for McCain. It's also great news for the military-industrial complex.
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Liberal Dose Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #10
17. Which would be the reason for surprise at only verbal support from the US. It was most likely
expected that American soldiers would be flown in. But then, flown in from where? Iraq? Bush has been trying to restart the cold war since he stole office. It was obvious when his first action was to ignore anything and everything to do with bin Laden.

Now instead of troops, Georgia is getting......Lieberman!! :rofl:
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elehhhhna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. Sounds like a rerrun of Israel's bomb throwing earlier this year, huh?
Edited on Wed Aug-20-08 03:57 PM by elehhhhna
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Satyagrahi Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. Or perhaps the neocons hoped that they could force NATO to intervene,
just as they hoped that they could trigger a war with Iran by lobbying for an Israeli attack on Syria during the last Lebanon war.

Before the war, Cheney was pushing to sell Georgia more arms (just as Lieberman did today). Now it seems likely that Georgia will get Stinger antiaircraft missiles and perhaps even NATO membership. As I said, it's a win-win situation...
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #2
16. Ditto n/t
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
3. I wonder how the Georgian people are feeling about Saakashvili right now. nt
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Joanne98 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:24 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. He had a 16% approval rating last week.
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Arrowhead2k1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:04 PM
Response to Original message
4. What about the reports of South Ossetian rebels shelling Georgian towns and killing 7 people a week
earlier?

___

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 2 Aug.'08 / 09:54
...

Mamuka Kurashvili, a Georgian Defense Ministry official in charge of overseeing peacekeeping operations, said that the Georgian side had opened fire in response to shelling of Georgian villages.

Six civilians and one Georgian policeman were injured as a result of shelling of the Georgian villages of Zemo Nikozi, Kvemo Nikozi, Nuli and Ergneti, the Georgian Interior Ministry said.

Kurashvili said that it was one of the most “outrageous” attacks carried out by the South Ossetian side.

He also said that the Georgian side suspected the Russian peacekeepers were also engaged in the shelling of the Georgian villages.

___

http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18871

We can't pretend like this all started on Aug. 7th with the attack on the rebel stronghold of Tskhinvali. Things are not as black and white as some may want you to believe.
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Muttocracy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:25 PM
Response to Reply #4
8. it seems like there have been little skirmishes going on all summer. nt
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Satyagrahi Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:48 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. I don't doubt that there were clashes. The problem, as I see it, is that Saakashvili
was apparently determined to solve the problems with the breakaway provinces Ossetia and Abkhazia by force and not by negotiations, as ex-minister Georgy Khaindrava has pointed out.

Attacking Russian peacekeepers (even if they are not good at keeping the peace) is never a good idea.
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magellan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:12 PM
Response to Original message
5. What does it matter who started it?
As always it's civilians who are paying for it with their livelihoods and lives.

The real enemy is unnecessary war perpetuated by a very large circle of players who all think they're in the right.
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MarjorieG Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:29 PM
Response to Reply #5
9. It does matter if McC started this to win an election. Like the Iraq War was to do?
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magellan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #9
15. No it doesn't
Justice is what matters. BushCo has escaped that despite all the evidence, McSame will be no different.

The most powerful/influential side will win, the losers will take their ambitions to a new fight, and worst of all it will happen again and again and again.
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Life Long Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 03:19 PM
Response to Reply #15
18. It's the greedy "Drill here drill now" crowd.
Pretty good deal oil companies have going here. Get tax payers to pay trillions of dollars so they can sell us more oil.
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Satyagrahi Donating Member (254 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 03:30 PM
Response to Reply #5
19. I believe that the truth does matter.
And I find it outright scary when our MSM sinks to a level of propaganda comparable to Pravda or Russia Today. Like telling us that Eurasia attacked Oceania when in reality it was Oceania that attacked Eurasia...
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magellan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #19
22. Of course the truth matters
I'm just being a realist. The truth has been turned into a hot commodity of subjective interpretation by world leaders through propaganda. Opinion, not fact.

That's why I say it doesn't matter who started it. Pick your side, it doesn't matter, they're ALL bad and there'll be no justice. The human race is far from possessing the collective maturity required to see that wars are seldom fought for the sake of people. They're fought in spite of people for some thing. The people and the truth almost always lose.
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Life Long Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:35 PM
Response to Original message
11. Anyone see the 12 year old Georgian girl on Faux tell the truth?
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Jack Rabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:38 PM
Response to Original message
12. The Russians don't give a damn about Ossetians and the Neocons don't care two bits for Georgians
The people of small nations or national liberation movements are being cynically used by great powers who care only about oil. The West has found a way to bypass Russia and the Russians want to do something about it.

Perhaps South Ossetia should be liberated from Georgia. Perhaps it should be reunited with a liberated North Ossetia as an independent republic. How would the Russians feel about that? Hey, we'll throw in independence for neighboring Chechnya for good measure.

It seems that Communists and post-Communists were only for the free determination of all peoples as long as the people weren't subjects of the Tsar -- or the emperor of China, as the case may be.
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mopinko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-20-08 02:45 PM
Response to Original message
13. i think the october surprise has been deployed early.
really, i almost can't read about this, because i know that most of what we are being told is bullshit. i think this is just the beginnings of the october surprise, that it will get more and more violent as the election gets closer, and that the whole thing is as phony as a $3 bill.
i keep thinking about the cypress revolution in syria, and the orange revolution in ukraine. nothing but a bunch of spook stagecraft to cover the overthrow of a leader they didn't like.
i think if they could start a skirmish on our border with mexico, they would.
it's all about the fear. fear. fear. fear.
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