HURRICANE IKE.... MONSTER.... KILLER..... IF YOU LIVE IN SE TEXAS..... LEAVE

It's a MONSTER. It will make landfall as a high category 3/ low category 4 storm. Winds sustained above 120 MPH. It is also moving fast. The storm surge could top 30 feet easily. It will affect ALL of SE Texas. It will literally buzzsaw anything within 10 miles of the eye both ways.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5+gif/211330W_sm.gif

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_17152.html?from=hp_news

(snip)

Unless I've gone askew in my evaluation, Ike's track appears to be unprecedented in the historical record.

I queried the NOAA tropical cyclone database viewer and input the lat/lon of Ike when it was at its relatively northern location in the tropical Atlantic, where I've put a circle.



The map below shows all storms and hurricanes which came within 200 miles of that point. Not one was pushed southwest across Cuba! And not one made it into the western Gulf.









This kind of storm hitting SE Texas is a once in a lifetime event.

It may still shift.

Remember the hell of the evacs after Katrina.

I'd say head this way but hell, it could still go north and be my trouble.

Go to Austin, they have some lovely liberals there.

Take good care :hug:

We are watching this one. After the chaos of people evacuating from Rita, most are staying put so that the routes will be free of clutter for the people from the South. I'm hoping that as Ike gets closer, people will not panic and try to head out. It will be Escape from Rita Part II.

I am far north and not in the flood zones. Thanks for thinking about me. :hi:

just take good care and keep us informed of how things are going.

:hi:

:loveya:

The Gulf Stream isn't what it used to be.

I remember going to Homestead back in '92 and seeing the devastation of the hurricane - we were spending a week for spring break, and was very surprised on the damage. I even visited the Monkey Jungle and it was BARELY open (it was also hit). Took some pictures for photography class and got an A on that.

Good luck SE Texas - stay safe!

Hawkeye-X

How many Hurricanes make it into the Gulf of Mexico depends primarily on the position of the Bermuda High.

And Rita was projected to be a Cat 5 when it hit, though it had faded.

Please, please, please, don't post like this. Please leave it up to the officials to form evacuation plans and routes. People are not taking this lightly, please don't increase the panic. The coastline of Texas is very different than the coastline of Louisiana, in general, and there are places not far inland that are not in danger of the storm surge. Let the officials decide who should evacuate, and when, and how, and hence and whither.

During the Rita evacuation, the media created such a panic that people who would have been safe fled Houston and surrounding areas, clogging up the highways, using up gasoline and other resources, and trapping some people who really needed to evacuate in their homes. By the time Rita hit, dozens had died during the panic, and many were stranded with empty gas tanks on the highways, and if Rita would have hit as predicted, some people would have been caught without shelter of any form other than their cars.

People should plan and prepare, and listen to local experts as to whether they should evacuate or hunker down where they are. They shouldn't just all jump in their cars and flee--that could be more deadly than the hurricane for some people.

we evacuated Nueces County (Corpus Christi) only to have the storm go in 150+ miles away. But it was a couple weeks or so after Katrina and everyone panicked. At the time we left Rita was a 5 and the forecasts had it headed at Corpus.

I was in Beeville (at Chase Field) today. There were a probably at least 150 busses and 40 - 50 DPS cars and troopers ready to stage. I probably passed an additional 10 DPS cars on 181 all headed towards Beeville. None had their radar going... my detector never went off.

Lots of boats and RV's headed north. Traffic on I37 was getting heavy.

Edit: Cancelled.

It was completely irresponsible. They told everyone to leave. I stayed put because the track of the storm went east to Beaumont, and NOT through Houston.

VERY, VERY GOOD POST!

Anyone reading take jobycom's post and take his advice.

Thank you Jobycom.

Don't evacuate unless you are told to do so.

I live off of a major freeway outside of Houston and in the days leading up to Rita, that freeway (as well as most others) was a parking lot. In fact, a friend of my mom's tried to evacuate (even though she wasn't told to) and it took her 8 hours to go 15 miles.

Just make sure your car has gas in case you're told to leave, have your batteries, radio, etc. and be sure to fill up the bathtubs.

Rita was the first and only time he evacuated. He was stuck in traffic for hours and took something like 8 hours to make a 1 1/2-hour drive. I doubt he will ever evacuate again, even if authorities say he needs to.

Than I am in during the hurricane itself.

Supposedly this time, contraflow lanes and evac shoulders would be in use, and that would hopefully make things better. It would also help if people would just fucking head north, get out of the way, then turn east or west to get to their destination. Instead, we had Houston and SW LA trying to evacuate through Beaumont at the same time our own evacuation started. :eyes:

We stayed through Alicia, and that is what Ike is looking more and more like. :shrug:

Didn't even board up the windows, and my and my brothers went out in the yard to look up and play a bit when the eye was over us. Granted, I was 6 years old at the time, so I wasn't aware of much beyond the fact that afterwards we sure caught a lot of crawdads.

best post on this thread

:crazy:

a few days after a hurricane hits the gulf. But with this one, apparently it might still be tropical storm strength when it gets just south of Dallas and that's very unusual.

Shnikies.

half dead crap ready to come down... Just in case :)

East Plano Checking in ...be safe fellow Texans

We don't need a repeat of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane_of_1900

108 years ago, and I doubt that anyone is still alive today so once in a lifetime event would be right! This storm track seems to be identical to that one, and that one was a real killer.





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galveston_Hurricane_of_1900

The Galveston storm in 1900 was 10X worse than Katrina. This one seems only a degree smaller.

I hope people ABANDON THE AREA if they are able.

My God. Up to 12,000 dead in the 1900 storm.

Let's hope modern technology can make a difference.

now they have a pretty good one except down on the west end. It has a mandatory evacuation order.

will not hit till the early hours of Saturday morning.. That is a scary fact...

The island of Galveston in 1900 was barely above sea level. The highest point was nine feet, and most was much lower. There was no warning of the hurricane, aside from ships coming into port just ahead of the storm. People had no time to evacuate. The storm killed between 6000 to 12000 people--no one knows for sure, because survivors just moved away from the island, so no actual count could be made.

After the hurricane, they built a 15 foot seawall around the city, filled the land in behind the seawall so that the new island height was equal to the seawall at the seawall, and sloped the island upward another four feet above the seawall. The remaining structures had to be jacked up to the new height.

Other hurricanes, as early as 1915, have hit Galveston since, with no repeat of 1900--nothing even close. The 1915 hurricane was stronger and had a higher storm surge than the one in 1900, but the seawall protected the island.

The hurricane of 1900 wasn't worse than Katrina, the island just wasn't prepared for the storm, as New Orleans wasn't really prepared for Katrina. If New Orleans had had a state of the art levee system, storm gates, and modern drainage pumps, it wouldn't have suffered nearly the damage, except maybe on the far east side.

Carla swept over the old sea wall, destroying hotels and taking homes right off their foundations leaving just the toilets on the slabs all throughout Galveston Bay.

It was horrible.

she owned in Karla ... she lived in Texas City

As a native SE Texan, it's amusing to hear Ike described as a once in a lifetime storm. I must be a cat, and am living multiple lives. :)

they talked about Carla every time there was a storm in the gulf. I was young, but I remember my granny saying, "oh, I hope it's not a Carla." I was there in the 70's when hurricane Celia hit Corpus. It was originally suppose to hit Galveston but turned west. I remember going with my sister and grandfather in his old Ford truck to watch the water splash over the seawall. At the time, I thought it was cool, but didn't realize till much later how close we came to meeting up with Celia eye-to-eye.

Oh, those where good times...to be young and carefree again:D

50 miles from CC when it hit. Strong winds with Celia. It moved a three-car garage on the rental property we were in.

Your grandparents lived in Galveston. How great is that?!!! It will always be one of my favorite places for even though I've lived here in Los Angeles for nearly 40 years, all of my early memories will forever be right there on the beaches of Galveston.

And unlike New Orleans, the area does not have the big pumping stations.

15 and 20ft. It's not unthinkable after seeing those massive waves in Cuba.

But we are still getting the waves.


I am not shittin' you - we have Hwy 98 in Destin flooding over 3 lanes right now.

We're 1000 miles away from where this thing will hit.



Ike Related Flooding Closes Roads

As of 6 a.m. Thursday morning, storm surge from Hurricane Ike is causing isolated road flooding on parts of western Gulf Shore Drive in Destin and on Highway 98 near the Gulf Islands National Seashore on Okaloosa Island.

http://www.wkrg.com/hurricane/articl...s_roads/17862/


That's pretty wild.

We went back this summer and took my two kids. I showed them where my grandparents used to live. It's next to John Sealy hospital on Post Office St. Their old house is now a parking lot:cry:

It was a sentimental moment for me because so many memories came flooding back.

Pretty cool you grew up there:D

I'm worried about this storm. I live in Dallas now, so it looks to be coming this way as well. Galveston will get torn up especially on the west end since there is no sea wall. My hopes and prayers are with them.

My sister and brother-in-law are right now loading my mom and her oxygen into their car and heading north. My sister, a big Hillary fan who now supports Obama, is the one that converted me into being a "liberal" Democrat within my Republican family when I was a kid.

My mom, who suffered severe depression in the 1960's, brought on by my brother being shipped off to Vietnam, menopause, my father's uprooting us to live all over the world every other year, wound up being institutionalized in John Sealy. That was a very rough time for our family and back when mental illness was scorned and a dark secret. My mom came through it all and wound up trekking around the globe with my dad living in England, Guatemala, Canada and Peru until he retired. Tipper Gore is my mom's hero because she brought it all out into the open. I love Tipper.

Your "John Sealy" touched a chord with me and I'm sorry I rambled so much. I do thank you for your prayers and hopes. I am stranded out here on the West Coast and am communicating by cell phone with them.

bad but the worst part was that a dam broke upriver afterwards and we had a flood. We lived right across from the Arroyo Colorado so our neighborhood was hit the worst. We were all evacuated by the National Guard to Harlingen High School and lived there for a couple of weeks until the water receded. LBJ came to the shelter. We ate Spam sandwiches provided by the Red Cross the whole time.

Our neighbords wouldn't leave when the flood waters rose. They took lawn chairs and a cooler up to their roof and were planning to party. Unfortunately, as the water rose, the tarantulas, scorpions and snakes had to go to the roof, too.

They finally rescued the family by helicopter a few days into it. The woman was hysterical by that time and was never the same after that.

A really good book on the subject of the 1900 storm and the beginnings of the weather service. Those folks had no warning what was going to hit them.

winds. Hopefully Ike will remain a Category three or drop to a two; people will still lose trees, shingles and some siding, but homes should not come down at those wind speeds. I've been through a well organized category two and it was a very unpleasant experience I'd rather never repeat, but areas just ten miles from ours had a 10-15 mph less wind difference and hardly area damage. Better safe than sorry; if you think you can get out of it's path in time, please do!

Cuz thats whats about to happen....

:grouphug: Be safe, y'all.

RollWithIt (548 posts) Wed Sep-10-08 07:53 PM
Original message
By tomorrow morning, almost all of Gulf Coast Texas will be fleeing..... Hurricane Ike

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

This is serious business. People will die.

One problem - it is not moving fast - 8mph is slow - it gives Ike time to strengthen.

The longer it is out there, the higher the chance of a more northerly track.

:hi:

.. is going to be either really stressful or really quiet.

I read that we might get hurricane-strength gusts of wind here in Austin. Stay safe, everyone!

Shouldn't be a big problem that far west. Houston however. Very bad, massive flooding and wind damage.

Find nothing?

Someone planning on making craters here? :rofl:

for some reason. :eyeroll:

Or maybe the next day! Register with Breaking News to find out!!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Ike grows in size and strength

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:17 PM GMT on September 10, 2008
Hurricane Ike has grown into a very large and powerful Category 2 hurricane. At 2 pm EDT, the Hurricane Hunters found maximum winds had increased to 100 mph. This increase in winds was a reaction to the 10 mb drop in pressure noted in the past 12 hours. The most recent pressure measured--958 mb at 3:09 pm EDT--was actually a 1 mb increase from the 10 am reading, indicating that Ike's intensity has likely leveled off for now. Visible satellite loops show that Ike has ingested some dry air from the west, which is visible as a spiral dark streak that wraps into the core of the storm. The small 11-mile diameter eye occasionally pops into view, and is exhibiting the unusual behavior of orbiting around in a large circle within the hurricane. Hurricane Wilma of 2005--the strongest hurricane on record--exhibited this behavior during its intensification phase, as well. However, Wilma was not sucking in dry air at the time, and Ike is not likely to approach Wilma's ferocity.

A large spiral band surrounding Ike's inner eye is attempting to close off and form a new outer eyewall with a diameter of 100 miles. The power struggle between the small inner eyewall and the large outer spiral band will likely go on until Thursday, resulting in little intensification of Ike this evening. By Thursday, the power struggle will likely be over, and Ike will probably resume intensification. If the small eyewall wins, Ike could intensify rapidly to a Category 4 hurricane; if the large spiral band takes over as the new eyewall and the inner eyewall crumbles, we can expect more gradual intensification to a Category 3 hurricane.

Ike continues to grow in size, and its tropical storm force winds extend out almost as far as Katrina's did. This large wind field is already starting to pile up a formidable storm surge. Tides are already running 2-4 feet above normal along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Visible satellite loops show that Ike has good upper-level outflow channels open to the north and the south. Outflow and cloud cover are restricted on the storm's west side, where dry air and wind shear of 10-15 knots are affecting the storm. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a major hurricane that will bring widespread destruction to a large stretch of the Texas coast. I expect Ike will generate a 10-15 foot storm surge along a 100-mile stretch of Texas coast from the eye landfall location, northwards. I urge Texas residents to take this storm very seriously and heed any evacuation orders given. Most of you living along the coast have never experienced a major hurricane, and Ike is capable of causing high loss of life in storm surge-prone areas. Tropical storm force winds will spread over the Texas coast beginning Friday afternoon, and evacuations must be completed by Friday morning. All airports in eastern Texas will be forced to close Friday night, and will probably remain closed most of Saturday. Ike has a good chance of becoming the most destructive hurricane in Texas history--though not the most powerful.

Graphics and more:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809.html

The longer it stays in the Gulf, the bigger the danger for Houston.

What are you guys? The fucking Bush Administration? What more do I have to show you that this storm is deadly serious? As someone who lives in SW Florida, if this storm was coming at me, I'd be booking a hotel in Gainesville right now and packing up my family. This shit isn't a joke.

It's the panic your advocating.

Texas officials have already ordered evacuations for several SE Texas counties.

Freaking out and telling people to get in their cars and leave without following the offcial plan is dangerous.

Very sad lessons were learned from Rita.

Be prepared, have plenty of water and food. Gas your car. Make sure your pets have plenty of food and water. Leave when you are told. Do not create panic.

We need to use our heads here.

I was only trying to make sure DU'ers there know what's coming. Maybe someone out there might read what I had to say and get out of the way. Not everyone even knows its coming.

and they are reading DU... they know it's coming.

I believe my "panic" should be known to the community. This is a huge storm without precedent in over a century. It is literally a PLEASE LEAVE kind of storm. At least for SE Texas.

They are already evacuating parts of SE Texas.

Do you have local Texas news? If you do you will see that evacuations are already in place.

I am in Austin ,as for me I went today and stocked on batteries,water, food and pet supplies.

Oops. It was my husband's suggestion. He was in Houston when Carla hit. I don't think we are in danger here in SA, but he insisted that I stock up on batteries and water.

People who don't aren't sitting at their computers reading DU, I can assure you.

We knew what was coming before you did. I've personally been watching this thing since last weekend, and it's been the talk of pretty much any place you go for the last few days. This isn't 1900. We have radios now.

While I and pretty much everyone else appreciate the thought behind what you're doing here, the "are you the fucking Bush administration" kinda tears it for me. It is irresponsible to stir panic. There are several million people on the Texas gulf coast. RUN NOW!!1! is not an evacuation plan. That's basically what was going on with Rita. Everyone RAN NOW, and the roads got backed up so badly people weren't getting anywhere, running out of gas in the middle of the road, blocking traffic even more. Absolute nightmare.

You want to kill people, make sure they're stuck on the road when a hurricane hits.

It's very thorough and interesting. Scary as hell, but, if you want to read about the anatomy of this monster, in detail, read it!

or will they just forget since it's not in the public eye like that last one

Around 6pm when the storms strength is clear to everyone, the media will be going crazy.

But I highly doubt anyone really wants to go all the way up to the Arkansas/Missouri border when Oklahoma will be just as safe -- not to mention most of Texas.

Although with Katrina, we did have people staying with us -- a couple from NO that we knew through the RadFae network.

FFS, we had a storm just like this one in 2005. Her name was Rita, though, yeah, if you only casually watch the news you probably never would have heard of her.

Ike's not even as powerful as Rita yet, so we'll see. We're getting prepared, but panic posts don't do anyone any good.

And I do mean LITTLE.

Ike might eventually be worse, but it's not even close right now. All we can do is what we are doing- watch, prepare and plan. :shrug:

Maybe Wilma wasn't in the Gulf when it hit cat 5.

Wilma is the strongest Atlantic storm ever, Rita in the Gulf. But I could have heard that incorrectly (some of the local weather guys were discussing it today).

Any way you look at it though, 2005 was bad, with 3 of the strongest storms all within a couple of months of each other.

We dodged yet another bullet here, but it was not pleasant.

...like it's got the oomph to be a bad one :(

That the potential to be much stronger. Just look at the size of Ike - as big as the military industrial complex he warned about.

Look how far the outer bands extend - way down to Jamaica.

?20089102126

who knows. But it is definitely something that needs to be watched.

It's color coded, like a chart you would see in about 4th grade.

The pressure keeps dropping.

Everyone is afraid of another Katrina, but so far this season there hasn't been a single storm that has approached Katrina's strength. Even though Katrina hit at a lower rating, that time at a five increased the amount of moisture it was carrying and added to its surge. Even if Ike does manage to power up to a 4 before landfall, it still won't do nearly the same damage as Katrina did.

Plus, unlike New Orleans, Houston doesn't sit below sea level.

As you can tell from my post I go there all the time. But How do I get to that section with the time lapse?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?#IKE


Hit on "Archive", then on "Graphics Archive".

I picked this one from the list:
5-Day Track Forecast Cone and Watch/Warning

That's a Cat 2 hurricane well into SE Texas. Take a road trip with your loved ones and a few precious papers and belongings. Now.

A Cat 2 could bring 100 mph winds. The flying debris alone will be deadly. Tornadoes and torrential rains could be in your future. How would Austin fare?

I do mean to sound alarmist, I want you to do what you can to protect you and yours. Better safe than sorry.

Or the ghost of Ike Turner, I should say.

;)

I hope you're correct. I truly do. That is not sarcastic in the slightest. I hope Ike pulls a Gustav rather than an Andrew or Katrina on you. (^^ Went through Katrina.)

However, Ike is in the process of rapid intensification -- its pressure is already at Category 4 levels and the winds just need to catch up. This storm is not expected by the NHC to be sheared going into landfall, either. Nor is there a wide range of possibilities where it could hit like there was with Rita. This one is not going to Louisiana because a high pressure system is going to block it. It is also not going to the sparsely populated slot north of Brownsville, because it is already at that latitude, and it would have to start moving due west NOW in order to do that.

If I were on the coast between Corpus and Houston, I would not want to be there when this hits. And after reading this blog that many have linked to (Dr. Masters'), I am not so sure I'd rely on what the officials say to do. Evidently the mayor of Galveston doesn't want to evacuate and is betting that it will swing south enough of that city that it won't be more than a glancing blow.

It is, unfortunately, shaping up to be a potential tragedy, because of this notion that all storms are not as bad as they are "hyped" to be, that they all weaken significantly, or go into a less vulnerable area, or both. It's extremely unfortunate that this storm is coming right on the heels of Gustav, because that only reinforces that idea.

But the OP speaks as though we've never seen a storm as dangerous as Ike, when we in SE Texas just went through Rita in 2005. The 1900 storm is not a good comparison, regardless of track, because the city did not have a seawall back then. If Ike hits Galveston directly, it will very likely be much like Alicia was in the early 1980s- bad, and certainly something to prepare for, but it shouldn't be the end of the world. That's all.

Ike is forecast to hit south of Galveston as a 4 by the hurricane center, as of their 4:00 CDT update. Considering what the pressure is, I wouldn't be surprised if they upped the landfall intensity over the next couple of updates.

Many people will sit out a 2 or even a 3... if they are outside a surge zone and live in a well-built house, I can understand that decision. I really can't understand people choosing to sit out a Category 4, though. :shrug:

Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Catgeroy 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1079&tstamp=200809

People who live in hurricane prone areas are generally prepared. I live in South Florida, have been thru more than my fair share, including Andrew, Katrina, Wilma and an unamed storm a few years back.

I beg you, please, stop festering paranoia. A Cat 3 storm is NOT a once in a lifetime event!

Give human beings some credit for being smart enough to prepare for the storm.

It's not as if Hurricanes are something new!

-Cindy in Fort Lauderdale

So stop with the I live in South Florida and all these storms are just hyped BS. This is serious business. Reread my OP, twice, maybe it will stick for you. If not, drive over to Homestead and look at all those decapitated trees.

I did not type that it was hyped, I typed that you should give credit to human beings for being prepared.

Get it straight.

BTW- I also know the affects of Charlie and all the hurricanes of 2005 in SW Florida. It affected my family personally.

-Cindy in Fort Lauderdale

Actually, Charlie gutted my mothers retirement condo on Sanibel Bay. Took us a year to rebuild it. It had Cat 2 winds when it passed here, damage was worse farther north.
So ya, a high cat 3 storm landing head on just south of Houston is going to be devastating.

Also, you stated that "people who live in hurricane areas are generally prepared." As someone who lives in them, I can tell you that they are NOT prepared. Many of them are worried about how to afford the next mortgage payment, not some storm that will ruin them. That's present day.

but still it is possible for even large limbs to be cracked and blown into the roof of our home. That is why we are leaving. There were two deaths here five years ago from head trauma due to late-falling debris after Cat 2 hurricane Claudette.

Most people here are reasonably prepared. But some of the smaller towns are being very irresponsible in trying to run people out of their homes and onto the roads. There are no hotels left within 500+ miles. And where my in-laws live, there is no community storm shelter opening for them, even though there is a new school, and no one is making preparations to help the elderly out of their homes. Our local governent is failing us miserably here. Oh, and they probably won't let anyone head south as they are trying to herd everyone north and are turning the southbound lanes into contra-lanes north. Bastards.

We don't get as many hurricanes here as Florida. We had two in Texas already, one further south, and one further north, but neither were as nasty looking as Ike is now.

we know the storm isn't going because they have turned southbound lanes into contra-lanes to send everyone north. When Rita was going to hit further north and miss them completely, hotels in Corpus Christi dumped thousands of people back onto the roads to fend for themselves when there wasn't a hotel available within 700 miles.

My in-laws live in the country near Goliad. She said there is NO SHELTER for anyone in town to go to, even though there is a new school, etc. The city is trying to get everyone to leave, but they aren't doing anything to help the elderly who have no one to help them get out of town. Naturally, they are ignoring the fact that the hotels are all booked up. If the southbound lanes are closed, then they are cutting off routes away from the hurricane.

We are going to my dad's house not too far from College station. We'll be fine there. But alot of people are going to suffer Governor Goodhair's "ownership society" where "you're on your own."

they are warning that there aren't any resources and vehicles to get people out who can't afford to leave on their own or who don't have the means otherwise. Many people in SE Texas just evacuated a week ago for Gustav (which thankfully turned out to be a non-event for us), and FEMA is refusing to reimburse for hotel expenses. A lot of people just can't afford to leave, regardless of whether Ike really is a "once in a lifetime event" or just another Cat 3. :(

that she is probably in the clear now. She might even not get hurricane force winds if ike ticks easterly again overnight.

But I need to be concerned about my dad and sister now.

Hopefully if it really looks like Corpus and points south will be clear overnight, then they can start sending the buses and other vehicles and extra law enforcement personnel to Galveston and eastward. But who knows when they'll feel comfortable making that call?

That part about big hurricanes not moving far into the Gulf. If it keeps moving West it could bring a LOT of surprises :scared: Maybe getting close to land will break the storm up.. they better hope!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211330.shtml?3day#contents

The 10 pm update shows this one heading east, just like Rita did in 2005. Corpus and points south are probably out of the woods, though I'd still keep an eye on it just in case.

Very dangerous.

EDIT: You'll notice that my links update when the NHC updates their tracks.

now, and unfortunately, closer to Galveston Island. I hope Ike doesn't get any stronger.

very kind of you, thanks from TOD!

There is a lot to be concerned about with this storm. I hope folks take it seriously, even if the intensity predicted does not show up.

Be well,
PG

Of course we call him "Dead Wrong" Dale Nelson for a reason. I do think things may have changed a little bit in the last few hours.

they are good people and good liberals! they are actively involved in the Sierra Club (president) of local chapter. After Rita they oversaw the tree planting initiative, so they really know how much damage a hurricane can do! But they are gonna stay and tough it out. I hope they are Okay!

Stay safe and take care down there, ya'll. My prayers are with you.

:hi:

:hug: :loveya: :hug:

in the mandatory evacuation. When his wife gets off work they're going to head north. I guess we'll have guests sometime soon.

Another tracker site:
http://www.stormpulse.com/

be spun off of this thing.

Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL.

Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion.

I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...&tstamp=200809

People seem to be underestimating Ike's threat based on the wind speeds.

Just as Katrina a storm surge out of proportion to the Cat rating could be a catastrophe for coastal Houston and the country as a whole.

We're 1000 miles away from where this thing will hit and still feeling the effects of waves and storm surge.


That's pretty wild.


Here's the Houston blog where people are just now starting to panic...it's crazy.
Somebody broke into a Home Depot lot and stole all their plywood last night...

http://www.khou.com/forums/viewtopic...asc&start=4245

a certain member who posted a very serious warning about Katrina and the danger to New Orleans -- they were accused of fear mongering and told to shut the hell up.

Well, we all know how THAT one turned out... :(

days later...well :scared: It was very bad.

My nephew/wife are expecting a baby in 3 weeks. They live in Houston. :scared:

Prayers for everyone in the area.

I never panic....but if I lived along the Texas coast - I would already be in a hotel 500 miles away.

A snippet from the national weather service, issued moments ago, very ominous ---

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION
ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN
DEATH.

MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE
COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL
PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL
LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH
WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION
OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM
BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO REPAIR.

DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF IKE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST...THESE WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST
OF THE INTERSTATE 45 CORRIDOR.

I'd like to send it around. Thanks.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IKE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
125 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...HURRICANE IKE HEADED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

(full message)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS84-KHGX.shtml

I was a sophomore at the University of Houston (Go Coogs!) and it really delayed the start of school in a number of ways. Houston was damaged pretty bad by flooding.

I'm supposed to travel to Dallas this weekend.

maybe a little localized flooding...but any good storm around here does that :)

We actually have a pretty decent airport compared to most cities :)

It fills almost the entire Gulf. :scared:

Be safe you folks on the coast. :grouphug:

evacuating Houston. DH, the conservative, insisted I call them to invite them (just a plug for him -- not all conservatives are mean, heartless, compassionless ogres).

It's an 8-hour drive on normal traffic days. I can't imagine how long it'll take now. I'm praying for a safe drive. Vibes, everyone.

now. predicting galveston island will be under 20 ft of water? evacuating all of the houston metro area!!

i so hope they are wrong.

So massive, we're still seeing some bands going by us in SW Florida.

Get OUT NOW!!!!

Get out of there.

This is 12 to 16 hours before the storm hits.

They are showing some flooding in the lowlying areas on Galveston already.

Wind category no longer matters - the storm surge will most likely be the main concern.


Galveston seawall topped by waves now, and they'll only get bigger, + add at least another 15 ft of surge when Ike arrives tonight.

:scared:

Appears that the model assumes landfall right over Galveston/Texas City.

Note the tremendous runup at the TX/LA border around Port Arthur.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=115&topic_id=171213&mesg_id=171213