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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 01:47 PM
Original message
"storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast"
Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:22 AM EDT on September 12, 2008

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1082&tstamp=200809

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike. According to the latest wind field estimate (Figure 1), the diameter of Ike's tropical storm and hurricane force winds are 550 and 240 miles, respectively. For comparison, Katrina numbers at landfall were 440 and 210 miles, respectively. As I discussed in yesterday's blog entry, a good measure of the storm surge potential is Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE). Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. The Texas storm surge record is held by Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas.

. . .

NOAA's experimental storm surge forecast is calling for a 10% chance that the storm tide from Ike will reach 27-30 feet on the south and east sides of Houston. The exact track of Ike is key in determining if Galveston's 17-foot sea wall gets overtopped, flooding the city. A slight wobble 30 miles to the north of Galveston would put the city into offshore winds from Ike, possibly saving it from inundation. The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
1. SLOSH models
10% exceedence models.

Appears that the model assumes landfall right over Galveston/Texas City.

Note the tremendous runup at the TX/LA border around Port Arthur.


ftp -

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/surge/Latest

Lake Sabine:

Envelope High Water: i46_bp3_EOHW.gif

Animation: i46_bp3.gif

Galveston Bay:

Envelope High Water: i46_gl2_EOHW.gif

Animation: i46_gl2.gif
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 01:54 PM
Response to Original message
2. They might have to re-classify hurricanes after this one.
Edited on Fri Sep-12-08 01:56 PM by Baclava
People are too focused on wind speeds.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 01:54 PM
Response to Original message
3. Ike is a freak. ...A Cat 2 wind storm with Cat 4/5 storm surge
They should have got that message out sooner.
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tom_paine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #3
12. This year...they've all been freaks pretty much.
Fay with it's triple landfall

Gustav's extremely rapid intesnification

Hanna's large size and strange development

Now Ike, which is a freak in several ways (see Wunderground)

and HUGE as hell.
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deaniac21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 02:06 PM
Response to Original message
4. I'm betting it won't amount to anywhere near the hype..
mark it down!
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 02:18 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. 'hype'? OK n/t
Edited on Fri Sep-12-08 02:18 PM by loindelrio
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Wednesdays Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. So that's what's crashing the beaches all the way from
Corpus Christi to Mobile to Pensacola...it's just the hype crashing those beaches. Silly me for thinking it had something to do with the weather.
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deaniac21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 02:33 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. No real damage. It will be Cat 1 at most when it makes landfall.
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kayell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 02:50 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. You willing to bet peoples lives on that? nt
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Strelnikov_ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 03:06 PM
Response to Reply #7
9. "No Real Damage" OK, I marked it down. n/t
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Bluebear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #7
10. "No real damage" - - ok, we all bookmarked that as you suggested.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 03:12 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. It doesn't matter what the winds do when you're 20ft underwater.
Thanks for playing.
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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 03:48 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. ...
:thumbsup:
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readmoreoften Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #7
15. Yo weatherman. The wind category means nothing. The surge is from 600 miles of moving water.
Whether the wind is moving 74 miles an hour with gusts up to 105 or 110 miles an hour with gusts up to 125 will mean little when the water that has been pushed forward towards Texas for a week now by a Category 4 hurricane-- by a storm that is pulling up TWICE THE AREA of ocean as usual.

Water is already splashing over Galveston's levee wall with coastal flooding and the storm is 10-12 hours away.
When the Tsunami hit Thailand a few years back, there were no winds at all.
Katrina was a Hurricane 3. It was the flooding that killed.

Only 11% of storm deaths are caused by wind. Most are caused by WATER.
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Wednesdays Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #7
16. Hey, I'm willing to get you a ticket for a trip to Galveston
Hell, I'll even pay for your lodging and meals! How about a couple hundred bucks spending money, too?

The only thing you have to do is, you have to stand on the Galveston seawall at Columbus Avenue for 5 minutes, at exactly midnight tonight Central Time, and broadcast yourself live via your cell phone to us on the Internet. You don't need to do anything else--just stand at that location at that exact time for 5 minutes.

I mean, that should be a piece of cake for you, seeing that this supposed storm is all hype, right?
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uppityperson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-15-08 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #7
18. Well? you lose.
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JCMach1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-12-08 03:50 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. Surge is ALREADY 9ft
One should emphasize that Ike is a very large hurricane and
regardless of where the center of the hurricane makes landfall...the
effects will be felt at large distances from the center. In
addition...the largest storm surge will occur within the onshore
flow near or just after landfall. A gage indicates that the water
level has already risen more than 9 feet on part of Galveston
Island... http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200809.disc.html#a_topad
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KitchenWitch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-14-08 11:54 PM
Response to Reply #4
17. NNNNNNNN - Thanks for playing.
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