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Hurricane science:Why does a "mere" Cat 2 hurricane like Ike threaten Katrina-like destruction?

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entanglement Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:07 AM
Original message
Hurricane science:Why does a "mere" Cat 2 hurricane like Ike threaten Katrina-like destruction?
Edited on Sat Sep-13-08 12:19 AM by entanglement
Sustained maximum wind speeds are used to assign hurricane "Categories" - but scientists have recently proposed a more accurate measure of the potential of a hurricane to cause damage - a measure called Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE)

Dr Jeff Masters of WU explains:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1081&tstamp=200809

By this measure, on a 1-6 kinetic energy scale, Ike (at landfall) is a 5.2 - by comparison, Katrina was 5.1 at its peak. In fact, that makes Ike the second most energetic storm in the past 40 years!

Edited: Added the words "hurricane science"
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:12 AM
Response to Original message
1. Because the eye is the strength of a cat 4, also because of the size of the storm
The damage that will come from this one is from the storm surge. Galveston has been flooding since pretty early on Friday. And it hadn't even started raining.
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rwheeler31 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:12 AM
Response to Original message
2. oil
Did you notice how much air time Texas Gop got
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RB TexLa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:15 AM
Response to Original message
3. That and the fact that no government official or agency wants to have anyone say they underestimated
anything next week, so they all say that everyone within 500 miles of the storm at any point will die.
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merh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:21 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. with all due respect, they would be negligent if they didn't warn
everyone within the 500 mile radius - the storm is about 600 miles wide - the tides/wave/surge associated with it have been affecting the Mississippi Gulf Coast and Louisiana for the last 2 days even though the storm was over 400 miles away and heading to the west.

Any body of water that at some point flows into the Gulf or Bay is a potential river, the waters that the storm will bring in with it have nowhere to go but into those ditches, streams, canals and flood areas that were never prone to flooding before. That is what Katrina did.
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Breeze54 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. They didn't say that though... they said people on Galveston Island would die....
if they didn't evacuate.... I can see why!
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halobeam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:39 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. As I understand it, they had volunt. evac. Weds. and Mandatory evac. TODAY.
For Galveston.

In my opinion, they called it too late for Galveston. The mayor today, even said, "we didn't think it was going to be this bad."

Now, if you're talking about NHC and the NWS... They were typing in CAPS warning of certain death! Two days ago!!

Poor communication again b/w the officials and the experts... and the officials and the communities and the officials and ______________fill in anyone's name, even their mothers' name would do, I'm sure of it.
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Breeze54 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #12
19. If people are to stupid to leave when this storm has been in the news for weeks....
Edited on Sat Sep-13-08 01:55 AM by Breeze54
and they somehow need the words, "Mandatory Evacuation" added

to get their asses moving when they live at 7 FOOT Sea level??

Then I don't know what else the mayor could've done!

How stupid are they?! The warnings were up on September 4TH!!!

Today is the 12TH!!! Gheesh!! :wtf:

Hurricane IKE:Hurricane IKE Projected Path

http://news.spreadit.org/hurricane-ikehurricane-ike-projected-path/

By Dylan on Sep 4, 2008 in US News

000
WTNT34 KNHC 042031
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST THU SEP 04 2008

…IKE EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OVERNIGHT….

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH…215 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

:silly:
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Breeze54 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:25 AM
Response to Original message
5. STORM SURGE.... 25 FT surge PLUS 30+ Foot waves on TOP of that!!
IKE is HUGE!!

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&date=2008-09-13_00:10">Worst Case for Texas, Louisiana Much Of Galveston and East Texas is Under Water

... tonight as Hurricane Ike nears landfall.

The devastating storm is the worst-case scenario for Galveston and. . . (more)
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entanglement Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:27 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Yes. And I just read that 40% of Galveston's residents DIDN'T evacuate
:(
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Breeze54 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:37 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Fool hardy, at the least.... what a shame...
:(
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eshfemme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:27 AM
Response to Reply #8
15. I'm really upset about that
I wish people wouldn't be so foolhardy... a lot of Katrina's tragedy was because people COULDN'T leave and some of these people are just choosing to stay. I wish people would take the safer route rather than risk it.

I'm really hoping it won't be a catastrophe... I really don't want anything bad to happen...
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entanglement Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:51 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. 23000 in Galveston alone...in all 90000 people stayed back in two coastal counties
per the Chronicle
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eshfemme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:55 AM
Response to Reply #17
20. I'm just so worried because Galveston was destroyed about a century ago by hurricanes.
I really hope the people who defied the mandatory evacuation orders will be safe. But I can't help but feel even more depressed about Katrina... hasn't anyone learned from those mistakes?
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Catherine Vincent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:27 AM
Response to Original message
7. "Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE)"
Is that why this one is aptly named Hurricane "Ike" or is it just a coincidence?
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entanglement Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:28 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. Just a coincidence
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RL3AO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #7
10. Coincidence
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halobeam Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 12:41 AM
Response to Reply #7
13. Damn IRONIC if ya ask me.
Saffir-Simpson scale is no longer the most accurate way to measure storms.
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:04 AM
Response to Original message
14. If they called it a Cat 5, I bet more people would have left.
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entanglement Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:35 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. True that, very true
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JVS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:53 AM
Response to Original message
18. It's a nearly 600 mile wide storm. Wind aside, this is Noah's ark type shit!
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entanglement Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #18
22. It is the storm of the century in terms of energy
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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-13-08 01:58 AM
Response to Original message
21. Storm is actually nearly a 3.
Katrina wasn't really a 5 when it hit the mainland. It was also a 3.

Flooding does most of the damage and storm surge will be high for this storm.

Doug D.
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