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I'm no expert, but isn't the ban on short-selling a BAD idea?

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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 03:52 PM
Original message
I'm no expert, but isn't the ban on short-selling a BAD idea?

The ban lasts until October 2nd.

Won't this cause all the short-selling that is pent-up for two weeks to HAPPEN ALL AT ONCE?

Isn't this artificially inflating the stock values of bad banks for two weeks.....setting them up for a MAJOR fall on October 2nd when the ban is lifted?



I've got a feeling, it won't be a pretty day for our 401K's on October 2nd.


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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 03:56 PM
Response to Original message
1. It depends very much on how the market is trading when Oct. 2nd rolls around.
If it is in another downward trend, which is very possible, I think that will make things very nasty as shorts will just pile on. In the short run, given the strains on the system, I think it was a good idea to prevent a complete meltdown.
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 03:56 PM
Response to Original message
2. I think everything we are seeing is temporary...
The upturn in the stock market is temporary too.

This short sale deal pisses me off on many levels... it prevents market correction. We all knew this was going to happen... this is no real surprise to anyone. That said, I don't trust anything they are doing now.
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CoffeeCat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:00 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. I agree....
...and I'm very frustrated.

I have a college degree, and a minor in economics. That won't get me a bowl of soup, but I
don't understand the following:

--Exactly what is happening.
--Why it is happening.
--What this means on a macro level--for the economy as a whole.
--What this means on a micro level-for my family.

I think they count on this catastrophe being so complex and so difficult-to-understand.

We'll all be wiped out, before we understand what hit us.
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JuniperLea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 05:01 PM
Response to Reply #3
14. Yep...
I have a securities license, so I'm no stranger to this either.

However they are doing this, it's going to hurt. My first thought is they have just printed more money, and we all know how disastrous that is. But borrowing more in this climate of debt is really bad too.

They knew this was going to happen. I agree about their counting on the appearance of complexity. I don't think it really is. I think logical money thinkers like ourselves tend to look for the complex explanation, and that leads us to overlook the simple.
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Wednesdays Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:00 PM
Response to Original message
4. Mark my words...they're going to renew it so it expires after Nov. 5
After that, all bets are off. :scared:
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Schema Thing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
5. nah. It won't get "pent up". short selling is not important
to the market. It's a game, a non essential that doesn't really have any benefit to society. you can always sell a stock if you don't think it is going to make money.
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Schema Thing Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:01 PM
Response to Original message
6. oops dupe.
Edited on Fri Sep-19-08 04:02 PM by AchtungToddler
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Tandalayo_Scheisskopf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
7. Nah.
Anything that takes the bread from the mouths of the children of Wall Street is just fine by me. Fuck 'em.
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rlthorn Donating Member (7 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:04 PM
Response to Original message
8. ban on short selling
The ban is not necessary. All that is necessary is permitting
short selling only on an "uptick", i.e. when the
stock has gone up. This neutralizes to some extent the ability
of short sellers to drive a stock into the ground. 
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elehhhhna Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. true. better than nothing, though.
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HCE SuiGeneris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #8
13. Welcome to DU, rlthorn.
:thumbsup:
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mmonk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
10. It's to try and stop a plunge by putting in stability and avoid manipulation
by traders.
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ThomWV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:44 PM
Response to Original message
11. Short selling doesn't get 'pent up'. Its a time sensitive thing to do
You don't sit there thinking some day I'll have enough money to buy myself into a short position. You look for stocks that are likely to fall and when you've done your research you try to go short when they're at their high and catch them going down then clear your positon before they rise again - as they always do.
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ben_meyers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 04:48 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. I have a feeling that they will adjust some margin and
reporting requirements before they allow the shorts back in. Right now it's only the financial stock, but I hope they look at all of it.
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WCGreen Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 05:04 PM
Response to Original message
15. That's a distinct possibility....
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galileoreloaded Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 05:33 PM
Response to Original message
16. This is knee jerk to something bigger. And it won't work, because it don't matter.
There is sentiment in the trading world that says there is something unnamed out there that has Pauly, and Bennie absolutely scared shitless, and that is why they chose now. UK going first was a good opportunity for them to try it, as nobody screamed bloody murder.

No one knows what the dark horse is or if it even exists, but what you see today is massive short covering. As posted here, shorts provide liquidity on the way down, as there is a guaranteed buyer at a price. All a ban does is raise questions about whether you will even get a bid, or there is a buyer AT ALL, in the event of future sell offs. That, my friends, is how you buy stuff for pennies on the dollar. Fundamentals will kill a company regardless of the ability to short, but you throw a blue chip or "good company", say GE or Bank of America into a collapsing stock market with no bids, and the real cash will go to work buying at 10 cents on the dollar in microseconds, wiping out ma and pa's IRA and everything else.

The worst part of this decision is best described like this. If you ride a motorcycle, you might be in more danger than other motorists in their cars, but not if the people around you are predictable. Business is the bike. It has elements of risk, but if you can keep it on predictable roads, stability is greatly improved. Well, the US, the reserve currency of the world, just had a motorcycle accident on the Stability Highway, and others will notice. We (the US) don't do this. We don't change the rules like this. We are sucessful because we don't change the rules. This is the stuff we laugh at (or used to) in third world despotism's and banana republics. Decisions like this happen in places that discuss microlending to buy goats. (a worthy charity, by the way)

Result??? I made you a web page.
http://cl1p.net/1929

Things look great for two or three days, and abandon ship.
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
17. this whole thing smells like a bad fish
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