Larry Sabato's Commentary (New Map Same As Old Map)

Meet the New Map--Same as the Old Map (Almost)
A Commentary By Larry Sabato
Thursday, September 18, 2008
In early summer, the Crystal Ball took its first look at the likely November 4th Electoral College map. Our assessment was that, in the College at least, the contest appeared close. John McCain had 174 solid or likely electoral votes to Barack Obama's 200 solid or likely. The lead switched once we added in states that were "leaning" to one or the other: McCain had 227 votes to Obama's 212, with 270 needed for election. Fully 99 electoral votes in eight other states (CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI) remained in the toss-up category.

We based our map not just on current polling but also the recent historical record in presidential elections. To some degree, this explained the differences between our map and those of some other analysts. As we revise it in this essay, we will once again add a dose of history to current trends, and at least tentatively, we will attempt to narrow the number of toss-ups.


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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_larry_j_sabato/meet_the_new_map_same_as_the_old_map_almost