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where's the dead cat bounce? Dow down 200.

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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 11:58 AM
Original message
where's the dead cat bounce? Dow down 200.
I'm guess the Dow will rally toward the end of the day, but man, what a case of pnnicky jitters the market has.
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
1. I don't see it as "panicky jitters", but more as a trend
because we've built a house of card on a foundation of sand and the tide is coming in.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Plus, equities are overvalued
and have been for over a decade. The adjustment has been delayed by the GOP policies of throwing money at the rich and slashing taxes on the corporate. That money has few places to go besides propping up the inflated numbers.

The GOP thinks two erroneous things: that the stock market crash is what caused the Depression and that WWII is what cured it. They think if they keep the stock market up and the country at war, they will automatically have a great economy.

I'm expecting the market to over correct. I think the true floor is in the 7000 ballpark, but it will likely go lower before it comes back to that.
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 12:24 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. yep, I was looking at a 30 year overview of the DOW today
and my estimate was in the 5-6k range. Anything above that seems to be imaginary wealth created by the various bubbles and system gaming, IMO.
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Warpy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 01:03 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. I'm puting it at 7000 only because I think real inflation
(not the government fantasy) has pushed it nearly that high.

That's a guesstimate, of course, since we've been lied to about inflation for over a decade now.
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Leopolds Ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Yep. I remember reading about this in 1996 about the fictitiousness of the "good economy"
Edited on Tue Oct-07-08 01:38 PM by Leopolds Ghost
That was built on an inflationary treadmill with the haves benefiting far more than the have-nots (and the have-nots benefiting by being one rung in the latter above a huge influx of cheap labor who needed housing and jobs.)

Clinton and Greenspan collided to tweak unemployment numbers in 1994-1998 and actually redefined inflation

(increase in computing power, which affects a huge number of products nowadays, was redefined as intrinsic
value, thus, a 486 computer selling for as much as a 386 did five years previous was factored in as a
ten-fold increase in consumer buying power on the dollar for that class of household items,
thus dragging down measurable inflation to zero, which was the goal.)

For comparison, imagine if horsepower were factored into inflation, and thus, although a modern car
is half the price of a Model T, adjusted for inflation, the modern car is supposed to be worth ten times
as much as a Model T and thus the buying power of the dollar must have gone sharply up since 1910 since
you could buy as Model T for $2000 and a modern car for only ten times that, even though it has 100x
as much horsepower -- per Greenspan logic.
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. markets are finally trickling down???? ;\
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
2. they've run out of cats to bounce
and it's become a dead cat crunch... I heard mccain is suspending his campaign, he may or may not debate tonight
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MissMarple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. What? Where did you hear that?
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radfringe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 01:58 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. I was being funny...
trying make a joke that mccain was suspending his campaign, and won't debate in order to address the lack of dead bouncing cats... :D
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MissMarple Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 02:28 PM
Response to Reply #11
13. Oh...darn. I was afraid of that. But then it would be just too easy.
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Speck Tater Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
5. The cat already bounced. Yesterday just before the close. NT
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tuckessee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 12:20 PM
Response to Original message
6. This is the dead cat bounce.
Market should be down 500-600 today. Right now it's only down about 150.
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 02:03 PM
Response to Original message
12. down 300 now. nt
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 02:48 PM
Response to Original message
14. down -437 now
9,518.47
-437.03 (-4.39%)
Real-time: 3:46PM EDT Open: 9,955.42 Mkt Cap: - P/E: - Dividend: -
High: 10,124.03 52Wk High: 14,279.96 F P/E: - Yield: -
Low: 9,510.27 52Wk Low: 9,510.27 Beta: - Shares: -
Vol: 257.34M Avg Vol: 278.35M
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 03:08 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. closes -508.39
9,447.11
-508.39 (-5.11%)
Oct 7 - Close

Another great day on the market. :sarcasm:
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Liberal_in_LA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
15. Not rallying as day ends...going down further.
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cali Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Oct-07-08 03:10 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. yep, i was surely wrong on that one.
the market is down over 800 so far this week. Where will it close on Friday?
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