Source:
ToledoBlade.com(snip)
It remains the case that the United States has a commitment there.
It is also likely that if the Taliban, which controls as much as 75 percent of the country, come back into power, Afghanistan will become once again the host of al-Qaeda and other terrorist elements. Lashkar-e-Taiba in Pakistan, for example, may come looking for a new home if the Pakistanis are smart.
At the same time, there are a number of important developments in Afghanistan that could change Obama administration calculations in terms of planning, if they are taken into account. For example, Afghan President Hamid Karzai is now sufficiently sure of himself to tell the United States and NATO that after seven years of war in his country, it is time for them either to complete it or leave.
The role of United States and other foreign forces in Afghanistan is also different from what it was in 2001, when Americans fought alongside Northern Alliance Afghans to chase the Taliban and al-Qaeda out and try to catch Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Omar. Both remain at large.
Now the new American troops slated to be introduced to Afghanistan will be placed in Kabul, the capital, to try to prevent it from falling to the Taliban. Mr. Karzai's idea is that if the foreign forces were gone, he would be in a better position to cut a deal with the Taliban, perhaps saving his skin in the process.Put another way, it is likely that he and other far-sighted Afghans see the United States and NATO presence in Afghanistan to have an expiration date and believe that they will depart the country eventually, as did the British, the Soviet Union, and Alexander the Great.
A realistic look at the situation in Afghanistan leaves Mr. Obama a tough row to hoe. After his campaign promise he cannot simply have the United States walk away from Afghanistan after the inauguration. Yet it is unlikely that he can imagine a much heavier U.S. troop commitment than exists now.
A phased departure negotiated with Mr. Karzai is probably the best bet, with the Afghan president in a strong enough position now not to let the Taliban rule the roost after the United States leaves. America can retain the option of wreaking serious destruction from the air if things go too wrong after its ground troops depart.
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081212/OPINION02/812120336