http://www.247wallst.com/2008/12/companies-that.htmlCompanies That Won’t Make It Through 2009 (HMC)(SIRI)(AIG)(FRE)(FNM)(RAD)(NYT)(NT)(PIR)(CHTR)(HOV)
AngrybearA lot of fairly well-known public companies either disappeared or went bankrupt this year. Circuit City is on the list. Based on the most recent news GM may get added soon.
24/7 Wall St. looked at some of the largest and most well-known companies, reviewed their SEC filings if they are public, analyst reports, and media observations about their businesses and picked ten that probably won’t be around at the end of next year. That does not mean that their brands will disappear, but these companies will have been dissolved as the world knows them now or working though the court system in the hopes of getting Chapter 11 protection and a chance at survival.
1) Chrysler already says it will be out of business by early next year. But, what does that mean. It is unlikely that its largest shareholder, hedge fund Cerberus, is going to throw good money after bad in an economy where US car sales are dropping 30% compared with 2007 figures. But, the Chrysler brand could be around. So could the brand of its Jeep division. Foreign car companies like VW and Honda (HMC) would love to get well-known operations without the baggage of debt, UAW contracts, and dealer networks. Chrysler still has some popular models including it 300 series cars and it created the minivan. Jeep is regarded as the grandfather of four-wheel drive. Watch Chrysler Motors LLC go away and some of its products move into other hands.
2) Sirius XM (SIRI) has traded under $.10 down from a 52-week high of $3.89. Reuters has reported that "Sirius XM faces some $1.1 billion in debt in 2009. Of that, about $300 million comes due in February." In the current credit environment, that probably won’t happen. There is a theory that falling car sales will undermine the sale of Sirius subscriptions. The company says that it does no better than break-even in the first year it gets a new customer though GM. But, a shrinking subscriber based is not good news for the satellite radio company’s future. Sirius will be out of business, perhaps before mid-year. Who picks up the pieces? The logical choices are a healthy car company like Toyota or a satellite firm like DirecTV.
3) AIG (AIG) may be the biggest mess of all the financial firms that the federal government has bailed out. Uncle Sam has given AIG $153 billion in loans. The theory is that the money gets paid back by the huge insurance company selling assets. Investors don’t seem very sanguine about that. AIG shares trade at $1.60, down from a 52-week high of $60.04. Congress seems less and less enamored of having a lot of money sitting in troubled companies. Watch for the new administration to get frustrated quickly and appoint its own people to auction off AIG divisions. Better to get something back than keep writing AIG checks.
(after we GAVE them 150Billion? WTF!)
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