When are we going to admit that we're falling into a mild depression?

When we reach 10% unemployment? 15%? The Great Depression saw 24% unemployment - is that what it will take?

so we don't know if it will be mild or severe.

I will certainly admit that we're in a World of Hurt right now, though, no question about that.

When you count the unemployed plus the number of people who are working too few hours to support them, you're looking at 13% minimum.

I think we'll easily be up to 20% or more by March.

I hope you all have savings and are out of all but mortgage debt, because the next few months are going to be terrible.

That's the official government number. Can you imagine what the real number is?

These numbers can be found in the supplemental data tables in each month's employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Check out the one for Dec: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm. Line U-6 is "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons."

13.5% already.

Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers...latest figure is 13.5% (12/08)

from RGE...


Among the statistics the BLS releases each month is the alternative unemployment rate, or U-6, which is somewhat closer to reality. U-6—as of December a whopping 13.5% (up from 12.6% the month before and 8.7% at the beginning of the recession)—adds back to the labor pool the marginally attached workers described above and does not consider employed those who work part time for economic reasons when they would otherwise seek full-time work. The least adulterated statistic, and the one closest to pre-1994 calculations of “official” unemployment, U-6 is still well below the generally understood average unemployment rate during the 1930s of 18.2%—but even U-6 is not directly comparable with joblessness measures from the Depression era.




http://www.rgemonitor.com/us-monitor/255261/unhappy_days_are_near_again

And, that is just counting those who apply for it. Many have given up on filing for unemployment. The true unemployment number is certainly higher, but I don't know how much. IMO, once it was publicly admitted that we were in a recession, we had already reached a depression.

would not be the same as the past.

it is underreported?

Over halfway through this year, I think we will see 15% nationwide. I doubt it will exceed 20% in all.

"worrisome" and enroute to "serious."

What we have no way of figuring out is how many who are still working full time but have had to accept lower paying jobs and certainly for the decade of wage stagnation many have had to work around.

The poor, working, and middle classes have had a substantial wealth drain that the "powers that be" are doing all they can to hide. The penetration of wealth through the society has retreated nearly to the days of the robber-barons.