The capture of a 15-man squad of British Marines and sailors in a disputed area of the waterway separating Iraq and Iran last Friday should have come as no great surprise to the Government of the United Kingdom.
That event was foretold in The Sunday Times of London on March 18 by columnist Uzi Mahnaimi, a former ranking Israeli intelligence officer working as a journalist in Britain. That article warned that elements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards were seeking retaliation for the suspected kidnappings or defections of three Guards commanders and the capture of a number of other Iranians inside Iraq by the Americans.
Mahnaimi described a series of provocations by a little-known unit run out of the National Security Council (NSC) and State Department, the Iran Syria Policy and Operations Group (ISOG), that is reportedly "coordinating the campaign to take Revolutionary Guard commanders."
"'In Iraq, the Quds Force can easily get hold of American — and British — officers,' said a Jordanian intelligence source", quoted on Sunday, five days before the incident.
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Uzi Mahnaimi's 3/18 Sunday Times column did indicate that Iranian Revolutionary Guards had been provoked, and that they might grab either American or British military officers as reprisals for what they believe to be the abduction of three IRG Generals, and a number of other ranking officials by the United States.
Here's Mahnaimi's column from March 18:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article1530527.ece From The Sunday Times
March 18, 2007
Iran to hit back at US ‘kidnaps’
Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv
IRAN is threatening to retaliate in Europe for what it claims is a daring undercover operation by western intelligence services to kidnap senior officers in its Revolutionary Guard.According to Iranian sources, several officers have been abducted in the past three months and the United States has drawn up a list of other targets to be seized with the aim of destabilising Tehran’s military command.
In an article in Subhi Sadek, the Revolutionary Guard’s weekly paper, Reza Faker, a writer believed to have close links to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, warned that Iran would strike back."We’ve got the ability to capture a nice bunch of blue-eyed blond-haired officers and feed them to our fighting cocks," he said. "Iran has enough people who can reach the heart of Europe and kidnap Americans and Israelis."
The first sign of a possible campaign against high-ranking Iranian officers emerged earlier this month with the discovery that Ali Reza Asgari, former commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force in Lebanon and deputy defence minister, had vanished, apparently during a trip to Istanbul. Asgari’s disappearance shocked the Iranian regime as he is believed to possess some of its most closely guarded secrets. The Quds Force is responsible for operations outside Iran.Last week it was revealed that Colonel Amir Muhammed Shirazi, another high-ranking Revolutionary Guard officer, had disappeared, probably in Iraq.
A third Iranian general is also understood to be missing — the head of the Revolutionary Guard in the Persian Gulf. Sources named him as Brigadier General Muhammed Soltani, but his identity could not be confirmed. "This is no longer a coincidence, but rather an orchestrated operation to shake the higher echelons of the Revolutionary Guard," said an Israeli source. Other members of the Quds Force are said to have been seized in Irbil, in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq, by US special forces."The capture of Quds members in Irbil was essential for our understanding of Iranian activity in Iraq," said an American official with knowledge of the operation.
Mahnaimi goes on to identify ISOG as the planning agency behind this string of disappearances of Iranian military commanders, and that this operation is intended to destabilize and provoke the Revolutionary Guards:
One theory circulating in Israel is that a US taskforce known as the Iran Syria Policy and Operations Group (ISOG) is coordinating the campaign to take Revolutionary Guard commanders. The Iranians have also accused the United States of being behind an attack on Revolutionary Guards in Iran last month in which at least 17 were killed. Military analysts believe that Iranian threats of retaliation are credible. Tehran is notorious for settling scores. When the Israelis killed Abbas Mussawi, Hezbollah’s general secretary, in 1992 the Quds Force blew up the Israeli embassy in Argentina in revenge.
Despite the Iranian threat to retaliate in Europe, Iraq is seen by some analysts as a more likely place in which to attempt abductions."In Iraq, the Quds Force can easily get hold of American — and British — officers," said a Jordanian intelligence source.
BackstoriesHowever, there is a backstory to this. Steve Clemons wrote earlier this month that Ali Reza Asgari is rumored to have defected to the US, and is busy revealing what he knows.
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/001989.php A fascinating story is beginning to percolate among the international media of a high-level military defection from Iran to the United States. According to both Iranian and Western news sources, retired Revolutionary Guard General and former Deputy Secretary of Defense Ali Reza Asgari disappeared in Turkey and is now "on his way" to the United States.
This may mean "on his way" to U.S. handlers in Europe rather than actually to the U.S. some have acknowledged.Iranian news sources imply that he has been abducted -- while American, European, and Australian news sources are reporting that the general organized a well-planned defection in which he moved his family out of Iran before he disappeared.
Interestingly, Gen. Asgari may have actually been working for another country before he went over to the Americans. According to an earlier Times report, Asgari was a spy who defected with the help of Israel because his cover was blown. "He probably was working for Mossad," the Times Online reported earlier this month. "Asgari’s disappearance shocked the Iranian regime as he is believed to possess some of its most closely guarded secrets."
It may be that attributing these disappearances to kidnappings have served several purposes. They may have deflected attention away from a possible penetration of al Quds by the intelligence agencies of one or more foreign countries, possibly Israel and the U.S. That raises the possibility that sections of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, already a semi-autonomous agency, may have been acting outside the control of the central Government. This may, as well, be an attempt to further inflame Iran’s wrath against the U.S., already red-hot after the seizure of Iranian consular personnel inside Iran. It has not been established, contrary to what Uzi asserts, that the Iranians taken at Irbil were Quds Force. Simlarly, Tehran denies having directed the 1992 Buenos Aires bombing. An Argentine Judge recently reopened that case, and European officials are threatening to issue an Interpol arrest warrant former Prime Minister Rafsanjani, who remains a major figure in Iranian politics.
What we see is an emerging crisis, and Mr. Mahnaimi may have thrown some fuel onto it. Whether or not Asgari defected, assuming that he is in U.S. custody, it is highly unlikely that the Americans are going to return General Asgari or any other ranking Iranian officials who are being held.
This difficult situation should tell us that if indeed the seizure of western military personnel was intended to pave the way to a prisoner swap, the British Marines and sailors may be the guests of the Revolutionary Guards for some time to come. Likely, much longer than those released after only three days in 2003.
Who is Uzi Mahnaimi, and why is he telling us this?In trying to weigh the veracity of these reports, it helps to know something about the journalist.
Mr. Mahnaimi was born into an Israeli military family, and served as a military intelligence officer before his retirement in 1984 . He is the Co-author along with prominent Palestinian guerilla, Bassam Abu-Sharif, of
The Best of Enemies, a joint autobiography. (Little Brown, 1995). The pair describe their careers as opposing spy masters that transformed into a cooperative behind-the-scenes role in the 1993 Arafat-Rabin Camp David accord.
http://www.hachettebookgroupusa.com/...Mahnaimi is generally described as a Left-wing journalist. Many of his articles are sharply critical of Israeli policy, including a series of highly controversial reports in 1997-98 describing Israel's alleged chemical and biological weapons programs.
http://www.amazon.com/Best-Enemies-Memoirs-Abu-Sharif-Mahnaimi/dp/0316004014 After his retirement from the IDF, Mahnaimi moved to London, which remains his base of operations. Before he started writing for Rupert Murdoch’s Times, Mahnaimi worked as a Mid-east correspondent for the Telegraph newspaper in the UK. He managed to operate in the UK during the 13 year period that the Israeli foreign intelligence agency, Mossad, was officially banned in the UK, following an attempted assassination of a Palestinian leader in London.
The reader should also be aware that Mahnaimi has recently published reports detailing what he describes on January 7, as plans the Israeli Air Force has prepared to drop nuclear "bunker busters" on Iran's nuclear installations.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article1290331.eceAt least as far as the effort to wean Iran away from its nuclear program, and to spook Tehran, Mr. Mahnaimi appears to be fully onboard with what many critics view as a pyschological warfare program aimed at persuading Tehran to give up its nuclear ambitions. The significance of the timing of this latest crisis, and the coincidental UN Security Council deliberations, should remain front and center in trying to read the backstories attached to current Iran reporting.
Regardless, Mahnaimi's article on March 18 was remarkably prescient. Given events in the last few days, It may well be that there are rogue elements within al Quds which are not acting within control or in the the interest of the current regime in Tehran. That could add an element of uncertainty in what is already a very dangerous situation. It is not hard to see that events could, indeed, spin out of control if semi-autonomous elements of intelligence services and military organizations choose to pursue the most desperate of options.
ISOG: From Iran-Contra to Today. A quarter Century of Dirty-Tricks and Black Operations experience.ISOG’s purpose appears to be to pull together the major stakeholders in destabilizing in Iran. This group attempts to coordinate the efforts of Iran’s principal regional adversaries, the Sunni Arab regimes and Israel, along with various Iranian opposition groups, with elements of the U.S. foreign policy and intelligence agencies, and private contractors.
The entire show is run out of the 6th Floor of the State Department by Elliot Abrams, who should be a familiar name, and James F. Jeffrey, who before he was appointed the principal architect of Iraq reconsruction in 2003 had a background as a State Department troubleshooter in Turkey and the Balkins states. Into that mix comes the increasing role of Bearing Point, a huge defense and intel contracting company, that has taken over a variety of planning and administrative matters previously carried out by career federal officials, including the task of keeping ISOG’s records.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Syria_Policy_and_Operations_GroupThe Iran Syria Policy and Operations Group (ISOG) is an organization within the U.S. government, consisting of officials from the State Department, White House, Central Intelligence Agency, Treasury Department, and other agencies that has worked since early 2006 to isolate the Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, internationally in order to encourage regime change.<1>
The ISOG has given aid to the militaries of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, and also to the political opposition in Iran.<1>
Some Familiar Faces, and Some New, in a Privatized Covert Operations Grouphttp://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2007/01/02/us_unit_works_quietly_to_counter_irans_sway/ISOG was modeled after the Iraq Policy and Operations Group, set up in 2004 to shepherd information and coordinate US action in Iraq. ISOG has raised eyebrows within the State Department for hiring BearingPoint -- the same Washington-based private contracting firm used by the Iraq group -- to handle its administrative work, rather than State Department employees.
Some lower level State Department officials saw the decision to outsource responsibility for scheduling meetings, record keeping, and distributing reports as an effort to circumvent the normal diplomatic machinery and provide extra secrecy for the group.
But State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said BearingPoint was hired for its experience and good work on Iraq. He said that about a dozen BearingPoint contractors work out of the Iraq Policy and Operations Group office on the sixth floor of the State Department, and that a few of them have begun working on the Iran and Syria group.
ISOG is led by a steering committee with two leading hawks on Middle East policy as chairmen: James F. Jeffrey, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, who once headed Iraq policy, and Elliott Abrams, deputy national security adviser for "Global Democracy Strategy." Michael Doran, a Middle East specialist at the White House, steps in when Abrams is away. Elizabeth Cheney, the vice president's daughter, who was the former deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, served as cochairwoman before she took a maternity leave earlier this year.
ISOG is made of five main "pillars," or working groups. The military group explores ways to bolster Arab defenses and create more military cooperation between the Persian Gulf states. The initiative was set into motion in May , when John Hillen, assistant secretary of state for political and military affairs, traveled to the region on his first of a series of trips to the Gulf.
In October, Hillen and Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter W. Rodman, along with National Security Council staff and others, traveled to Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain to discuss ways to beef up the military capabilities of those countries.
US officials also conducted the first naval training exercises in the Persian Gulf designed to intercept weapons shipments to and from Iran, with participation from Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
A second working group deals with "democracy outreach," focusing on the State Department's effort to provide secret financial assistance to dissidents and reformist organizations inside Iran and Syria. It also seeks ways to use scientific exchanges and human rights conferences to learn more about what is happening inside Iran, officials said.
US financing of pro democracy activities in Iran is expected to double in 2008, according to the senior State Department official. In 2006, $85 million was allocated for such programs.
A third working group focuses on finances and the Treasury Department's efforts to beef up bilateral restrictions on money transfers to and from Iranian banks. A fourth group focuses on Iran's "special relationships" with Iraq, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and terrorist organizations. That group has closely followed Iran's alleged role in a 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Argentina.
A fifth working group coordinates media outreach to the people of Iran, Syria, and the region.
Signs of More Serious Crisis than the Incident Four Years AgoThe incident is eerily similar to the "kidnappings" that set off the Israeli invasion of Lebanese and the Gaza last summer. It hardly seems a mere coincidence that after receiving warnings that the Iranian Guards were looking to extract reprisals, a British naval vessel would steam right into contested waters and halt an Iranian merchant ship within hailing distance of a Revolutionary Guards base. It is all the more notable that the British frigate, HMS Cornwall, had a BBC news crew aboard, who interviewed several of those taken, including a female sailor, a 26 year-old mother. British viewers have been seeing a lot of her recently. All this is highly reminiscent of the similar "kidnapping" and "rescue" story of a female U.S. soldier in the early days of the Iraq occupation.
Unlike an incident several years ago involving the capture of a small unit of British troops, this event seems to have been timed according to a larger agenda, and a quick, conciliatory prisoner exchange seems less and less likely.
Most immediately It comes in the midst of Iranian New Year Holiday, when many in the central government are away from their desks.
The capture Friday follows a string of increasingly serious incidents involving the taking of Iranian Guards and diplomats inside Iraq. It further complicates the current high-stakes game of diplomatic brinksmanship at the United Nations that accompanies American and British efforts to persuade other Security Council Members to impose tougher sanctions regime on Iran, putatively to stop its alleged nuclear program, but one which Iran fears could serve as a springboard and rationale for a direct attack akin to that which followed UN sanctions imposed on Saddam Hussein. It also has occurred as two carrier battle groups have entered the Persian Gulf conduct mock bombing exercises off the Iranian coast.
At the same time that an increasing tensions, the ruling parties of all five countries most directly involved are going through a spiraling, interlinked political crisis. Presidents Ahmadinejad and Bush have recently suffered broad electoral defeats in parliamentary elections and serious scandals that threaten their political viability. Meanwhile, Prime Ministers Blair and Olmert head deeply unpopular governments reeling from humiliating military failures. The situation in neighboring Iraq continues to spiral into an irreconcilable civil war, despite the change in U.S. commanders and the reinforcement of U.S. forces in the capitol. This is a situation where surrounding powers see their own interests severely at risk, and have stepped up their own open and covert interventions. Under these circumstances, any one of several free-radicals, such as al Quds or neocons inside ISOG or the Israeli intelligence agencies, could singly or jointly spark the rest into a full-blown regional war, one which many war-gamers have projected would escalate uncontrollably into World War.
The pieces are lining up for the sort of catastrophic outcome that exploded in August 1914. This crisis will test the training and creativity of rational elites, who are moving at an all-too-slow pace to remove failing regimes and de-escalate tensions.
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2007. Mark G. Levey
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