My son's junior high shut down by Swine Flu. Holy shit!

Here's the official pronouncement:

"Dear Holmes Parents,


Near the end of the school day today we were officially notified by Yolo
County health officials that a student at Holmes has been classified as
having a "probable" case of H1N1, previously known as Swine Flu. In
accordance with the directives of the state and county public health
protocols, that classification requires closing the school for 7
calendar days. Therefore, Holmes will be closed all 5 days next week,
May 4-8.


In addition, siblings of Holmes students, regardless of their school of
attendance, are also quarantined for the same period of time. At this
point, quarantine means confinement to the home. We will provide
additional information as soon as possible.


We know that there will be many questions and concerns to be addressed
and will move to provide updated information via listserves, the
district website www.djusd.net, local media and internal phone messages.
At this moment, we ask for your patience so that we have a few hours to
initiate our plans to keep children safe and set communication and
health protocols in motion.


The students at Holmes will be sent home at the end of the day without
this information so that we have a brief window to inform parents and
have an orderly and safe dismissal.


Thank you all for your understanding and cooperation with our effort to
ensure the best possible outcome to this situation."


My son's friends are all texting about how it's going to be straight out of "I Am Legend". Jokes aside, none of them are happy about the home confinement.

Weird.

that it has been determined that the strain is not as deadly as they first thought? If they actually were going to quarantine wouldn't the entire family, including parents need to stay home? Are the kids going to be required to make the work up later? Are the siblings going to be counted absent because their school is still open?

It doesn't seem very well thought out to me.

They are trying to slow the spread

And yes, this limited school by school closure later came to the whole city and now the whole country for mexico

And it seems to have slowed it down

the adults in the household? It is not SOP since it is very rarely used. And why now, when they have determined that it is not anymore deadly that the standard flu?

Quarantine should be used only when it would actually do some good and only as a last resort. Perhaps, I and the kids just value freedom more than you do. "Give me liberty or give me death," remember?

the spread

As to not working the jury is still out but from data south of the border spread seems, operative word, seems to have slowed down

It is not the same as the 1918 flu. Yes, there is a slight chance that it could mutate into something but so could every other dang flu. Even in the very slight chance that it did mutate an become deadly, they would likely have a vaccine ready. Not nearly a good enough reason to strip people of liberty.

And stripping some of their freedom while allowing others in the same condition to have theirs is also discriminatory.

and well above my pay-grade, he is a local virologist, mentioned this... he used to work for CDC by the way

All the samples they had for the 1918 are second wave, none from the first wave, which was mild

As he put it, it could mutate into something that will tickle you pink, and just make you worst case get a case of the sniffles

It could also mutate into something else, a little less friendly.. which is the worst case the President referred to this morning

We just don't know and the virus will do what the virus will do

Now the guessing game for the vaccine is to guess correctly

He also mentioned that this also puts all in a bind, as we can try to develop this vax, or do the usual guessing game for the annual one

I went, we don't have resources for both?

I had assumed, apparently wrong, that they'd just incorporate this lovely new gift of nature to the annual guessing game

As to the civil rights, well our civil rights have been kind of put in ice, by the national health declaration issued last week. I just happen to know that, because I know what declarations like that mean... it is not personal, but this is actually a national security matter... and no, I don't expect them to use that language. I also don't expect the feds to use the authority, but locals... absolutely, some more than others, and some will go crazy too. I count on a bad case of the stoopid breaking out here and there... now the school closures are SOP, in many a plan contemplated for this, no matter the language...

I know I am happy I have no kids, but the economic effects of this will be huge too, so nobody is doing this just because they want to annoy us or scare us either. By the way expect a few other countries to do this before this dies down before the fall...

That said, I forgot it seems to be more stable and that is good news

human race and most of those involve are own doing. We all are going to die. Providing a livable and free existence for posterity should be our goal. If we fail, however, it is probably because nature deemed us failures.

After living in fear that my nation was dying for the last 8 years, I have absolutely no fear of this flu. I have kept informed but the fear of dying over a germ does not seem nearly as bad as the fear of my country dying because it succumbed to fear. And I will fight giving up my freedom because some people are succumbing to fear to the end.

worst case, according to the WHO, it will kill 150 m around the world, per their latest numbers. Hell they have been dowgrading them over the years

But 150 M dead is hardly wiping out the species

assuming that all goes well.

These are very reasonable precautions that are being taken.

And Saddam could have had WMD's. Pre-emptive quarantines are wrong.

From what I've read, all they have now is a "preliminary analysis." Given the history of other pandemics, it seems too early to make any conclusive judgments. I certainly hope you're right though.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8028371.stm

Preliminary analysis of the swine flu virus suggests it is a fairly mild strain, scientists say.
It is believed that a further mutation would be needed in order for the H1N1 virus to cause the mass deaths that have been estimated by some.
But at this point, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy how the virus will continue to evolve.
UK experts at the National Institute for Medical Research outlined on Friday the work they are due to start on samples of the virus sent from the US.
The research, being done at the World Influenza Centre in Mill Hill, will be vital for working out the structure of the virus, where it came from, how quickly it is capable of spreading and its potential to cause illness.

SNIP

These initial indications are largely guesswork from looking at the genetic sequence of the virus and comparing that to what is known from work on other influenza viruses.
It will take weeks and months of biological analysis to properly get a handle on the potential of the H1N1 virus.

SNIP

Nothing you posted contradicted anything I said.

Scientists also say space debris could hit us at any time. Is that true? Yes. Should we consider the possibility and attempt to find a solution? Yes. Should we panic that it will happen tomorrow and start blowing up anything in the atmosphere on the assumption that it might be our end? I think not.

I am not against investigating or even guessing potential scenarios. I am against taking civil rights away from people without firm evidence that is is needed.

over-reacting, since what we do know is that this is a new flu virus that people don't already have antibodies for, and that isn't covered in the flu shot.

But I've got elderly relatives that I'm worried about; so I have an extra reason to want this flu to just go away.

whether they say it or not. And they aren't quarantining parents because that would cause an uproar (loss of pay, food, medical supplies, etc.).

Do you suppose you are the only one with elderly relatives? I think most of us have those (if we aren't the ones they are worried about instead). Supposedly, though, the reason this flu was scary was because it was mainly killing those between 20 and 30 instead of the young and elderly. If it had just been the young and elderly, we wouldn't be hearing about it because it would be normal.

this is a new strain that people don't already have antibodies for. With other influenzas, the elderly have some protection from a lifetime's worth of immunity and/or they have some degree of protection from a seasonal flu shot.

which is why they keep developing new vaccines. If what you said was true, the elderly would usually be the least at risk. That is not true, although they appear to be this time.

aka the human flu

This one is an A strain, aka one that came out from an animal

Those are not common, in fact last century saw three instances of this that became pandemic

1918, 1957 and 1968

They feared in 1976 we were on the way for it, but I guess Ft Dix did a wonderful job at containment when it first emerged

Yep, they were draconian, they confined everybody affected... aka quarantined them

I don't expect these details to be understood anymore either

something more dangerous. They're trying to stop it before it does.

two are getting closed

for fourteen days

Health Dept guidelines, the incubation period is now believed to be 10 days

The home confinement is essentially a quarantine

I know the home quarantine was more or less enforced south of the border from Mexican press, but has been a huge failure in Dallas

just limitd & scattered cases..
though I heard from a friend at the City office up here that there was one in el dorado hills...

I'll see if I can find any info

hope next week goes smoothly for you all...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ON EDIT: here it is...

Swine Flu (H1N1) Information

As of May 1, 2009 (3:00 pm): El Dorado County health officials have identified one probable case of swine flu (H1N1) in the County. The preliminary testing, by the El Dorado County Public Health laboratory is suggestive of a positive case, and the sample is now being sent to the state laboratory for confirmation.

The probable El Dorado County swine flu (H1N1) infection has been identified in a 9-year-old girl who attends Camino School. She became ill with flu symptoms, was treated by a doctor and sent home. The El Dorado County Health Services Department surveillance and public health nursing staff have been in contact with the family and we are working with them to ensure they are taking measures to care for themselves and to prevent the spread of the flu to others. We are also coordinating with school personnel on the case investigation. Health officials in El Dorado County will continue to monitor flu activity, and are conducting surveillance and control activities.

It is important to keep in mind that most of the swine flu cases identified in the United States so far have been relatively mild cases
(more blahblah about hand washing, etc..)

And I live on an island!

Yeah, this may be mild this go, but its out there.

saw the article today

Trolled the American have found none, outside of somewhat for geeks web portals (aka the ones we have been looking at)

Swine flu on the front page of my paper though:

http://www.timescolonist.com/

The Globe and Mail had a couple of articles on it today too.

and that is a beautiful area...

They did, matter of fact, one paragraph

He noted that no flu epidemic in North America has lasted beyond May and it is likely this current outbreak will wane and then return during the next flu season.

http://www.timescolonist.com/health/swine-flu/Scientists+face+vaccine+dilemma/1555301/story.html

But as far as this type of virus goes, and with mutations and all that good stuff, ya just never know.

he used to work for CDC

He put it this way, the first wave they have no samples for 1918

Interesting

He also said the mutation could make it even more harmless... the sniffles perhaps

But it could also could make it far less friendly

It will do what it will do

Now we got to get the guessing game on

Though it is more stable, (they think) than the 1918 lovely gift from mother nature

The science itself is fascinating, to me... geek

listened to epidemiologist on XM radio saying virus was in infantile stage...and lots of technical verbiage but to put it succintly said that virus after initial outbreak...uses all it's energy to survive rather than attacking the host and symptoms will be benign. Pray tell why is this guy not on all the 24 hr cable news channels? Oh that's right... he's not scary enough! ratings ratings!!!!

that is why local news bunnies read the release, oh twenty minutes or so ago

Oh wait, that wasn't supposed to happen

What they have not is explain the wave process, first wave is benigh, what this guy said, and the second wave is not.

Wait, I knew that but I also read an article regarding that in A MEXICAN paper oh thirty minutes ago, but have not seen this in the states

That would be facts, and facts scare people

By the way CDC did hint at this as well as the President of the US today, he said that so far it was spreading like the regular flu but they were taking all the precautions necessary for the fall

You try to connect the dots... but this virologist gave you a huge piece of the puzzle, bless his heart

Talked with a friend tonight about it. She informed me that she wasn't too concerned, no need to panic.

She's just planning to stay home until it blows over. :eyes:

not kidding you.

Sorry, but the school has no authority to confine anyone to their homes.

Park City schools are closed here until sometime next week. They don't want the kiddies hanging around together. The next day, the skate park was packed. I'm sure movie theaters and restaurants are crowded as well. Oh well, it was a nice idea.

Your right that the schools don't have the authority to enforce a quarantine; however, they could release the names and addresses of the students to the health department which does have that authority -- and could get the local PD or national guard to enforce it.

There are people in the US today essentially imprisoned because they have untreatable extremely drug resistant TB. If the state health departments / CDC want you quarantined, they have the authority to do it.

I remember being quarantined as a child because I'd been exposed to Scarlet Fever. Before antibiotics were available, that wasn't unusual.

The schools know that if they close and send the kids home and the kids still hang out together and the flu spreads that way, well, at least no one can blame them if they said "The children should be confined to the home." They have successfully covered their asses. Haven't done a damn thing to prevent spread of the flu, but that wasn't the real goal; covering their asses was.

friday's news reported the "swine" flu is pretty much like the regular flu

and that it doesn't have the capability to kill people like the 1918 pandemic.

maybe less than 36,000 people would die. millions would`t become sick so shutting down the ....wait a minute....never mind that would an inconvenience and cost to much.

If it can be kept from spreading long enough to let it die out for the summer we could protect our most at risk citizens - like family members with asthma, the elderly, immune suppressed, yound children.

I know the media is sensationalizing this story (imagine that!), but there are real concerns involved. I'm not a conspiracy-theorist or hypocondriac, but I have toddler and a 5-year-old with asthma whose had pnemonia twice so I'd prefer my kids not be exposed to this new and unpredictable virus. So far, we only have 1 case in Ohio and it's in the next county. I, too, hope we do what we must to get this thing to die out.

This is more interesting to watch than that movie.

Break out the German Shepherd companions!

Good luck to parents trying to keep their kids INside the house for 14 days. My 18 yr old HS senior goes stir crazy after 3 hours.

They downloaded it on bittorrent a month ago.

Great flick!

The well-respected Demonweed -- http://new-worlds.org/blog/?p=2221#comment-576522

"Though it is not good to be caught up in the issue, I am glad to see a broad middle ground of people taking this seriously without becoming hysterical. From day one of this as a news item, I thought it was nothing but hysteria. The scope of the illness is unremarkable by the standards of flu outbreaks. Likewise, the raw number on deaths is consistent with entirely ordinary flu. Based on those two facts, the primary motive for alarmist media coverage appears to be racism.

Obviously the “close the border” nuts are appealing to racism. Given that it remains possible the real origin is in the U.S. and the first prominent cluster identified by U.S. authorities centered around a group of New York City teens returning from spring break in Mexico, this is hard to mistake. Did the “close the border” nutjobs really want to strand those kids in Cancun indefinitely? However, there is more to the story.

H1N1 is an unexpected and mysterious flu strain. While the quantity of documented deaths is unremarkable, what is worrisome is that the survival rate for young people is unusually low (though the survival rate for traditional at-risk groups like the elderly is unusually high.) Then there is the simple fact that this bug is a novel mutant. The notion of a global killer pandemic remains in Chicken Little territory, but it is hysteria erupting from a teeny tiny kernel of truth. Until we know more, the idea that this could be an order of magnitude more severe than routine outbreaks remains a plausible, if unlikely, scenario.

Alert and cautious authorities actually can help. Annual flu shots are a “best guess” inoculation. They protect against a mix of flu strains experts identify as the most likely culprits of imminent outbreaks. It would be impractical to include every known strain in every inoculation. Still, I suspect this fall H1N1 will be included in that mix. Meanwhile, industrious scientists analyzing public health data are our best resource.

We may actually do more harm than good with blanket quarantines and travel advisories, but then again the real harm is in fearmongering. Alas, I doubt the nation of Mexico will muster the gumption to sue Fox News, never mind the airlines reaching into Vice President Biden’s famously shallow pockets. I suppose there is a fairness issue too here — orderly school closure has the same impact on everyone at the institution, as opposed to only children of the most gullible/paranoid parents being pulled from class. In any case, I hope the microbe never manifests in the byronius household, and that ultimately this turns out to be more relevant to the history of media analysis than the history of influenza."

H1N1 Virus Information Update
The latest information, as of Sunday, May 3, 2009, 12:00 pm PDT

Early this morning, Dr. Joe Iser, Yolo County Health Officer, notified us that the probable case of H1N1 at Holmes Junior High is definitely negative. He has, therefore, given permission for Holmes to be open and activities districtwide to resume with the inclusion of Holmes students. This good news means that our students may resume their academics and the many activities planned for Holmes Junior High and for Holmes students in districtwide activities can be held as planned.

My wife, the nurse, was there, too, so we'll just see what develops. At least we are not saddled with the quarantined.