I've heard reports recently that suggested it wouldn't pass but I just found this story on the Albany Times Union site
A step toward gay vows?
Some Assembly GOP backing could offer cover to Senate Republicans
By RICK KARLIN, Capitol bureau
First published in print: Wednesday, May 13, 2009
ALBANY — The Democratic-led Assembly passed a bill Tuesday allowing same-sex marriage, marking the second time in two years the measure has passed in the lower house.
While the bill was expected to be approved, supporters will point to the larger margin of victory, 89-52, compared with the 85-61 vote in 2007, as a sign the measure could pass in the Senate this year. The GOP backing in the Assembly may provide some political cover to shift enough Republican votes in the Senate to send a same-sex marriage bill to Gov. David Paterson's desk.
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http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=799670>