Credit insurance hampers GM restructuring
By Henny Sender in New York
Published: May 11 2009 23:33 | Last updated: May 11 2009 23:33
Hedge funds and other investors stand to make billions of dollars on credit insurance contracts if GM declares bankruptcy, a prospect that is complicating efforts to persuade creditors to agree to a restructuring plan for the automaker, analysts say.
Holders of $27bn in GM bonds have until June 1 to decide whether to swap their debt for a 10 per cent equity stake in the company as part of an offer that would give the US government 50 per cent of the shares, a United Auto Workers union healthcare fund 39 per cent and existing shareholders 1 per cent.
However, analysts say the chances the proposal will be accepted have been diminished by the large number of credit default swap (CDS) contracts written on GM’s debt.
Holders of such swaps would be paid in the event of a default – but would lose money if they agreed to restructure GM’s debt. For investors who own bonds and CDS, this could create an incentive to favour a bankruptcy filing.
According to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, investors hold $34bn in CDS on GM. Once off-setting positions are considered, the DTCC estimates CDS holders would make a net profit of $2.4bn if GM were to default.
The opposition of 10 per cent of bondholders is enough to derail the proposal, which has already triggered protests from investors who argue it unfairly rewards the UAW at the expense of bondholders.
“You have every incentive not to agree,” said one bondholder, a large credit hedge fund. “You would be locking in a loss if you did. It isn’t only the ‘shark’ capital; it will be the mom and pop mutual funds who will oppose this deal. ”
Prices for GM’s debt and CDS indicate investors believe a bankruptcy filing is highly likely. GM’s bonds are trading at between 6 and 12 cents on the dollar. To insure $100m in GM debt for five years, an investor would have to pay $89m plus another $5m a year over the life of the CDS contract.
The CDS positions mark a crucial difference between GM and Chrysler, which filed for bankruptcy protection as part of what it hopes will be a swift restructuring. Chrysler had $6.9bn in bank loans, on which there were few credit insurance contracts.
“Chrysler looks like a simple two-car funeral compared to the traffic jam of assets and liabilities and contracts at GM,” said the credit research boutique CreditSights. “Chrysler provides limited parallel.”
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009
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