WHO likely to declare flu pandemic Thursday--Phase 6

Source: Yahoo!/AP

GENEVA – The World Health Organization held an emergency swine flu meeting Thursday and was likely to declare the first flu pandemic in 41 years as infections climbed in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere.

Health officials from Scotland, Indonesia and Thailand said the agency would declare a swine flu pandemic — a global epidemic — on Thursday after a teleconference with leading flu experts. Officials at U.N. missions in Geneva also said they expected the imminent announcement of a pandemic.

WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham said only that the emergency meeting began at noon in Geneva and WHO member nations would be informed of the result. WHO Director-General Margaret Chan was holding a press conference at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT, noon EDT).

"It is likely in light of sustained community transmission in countries outside of North America — most notably in Australia — that level 6 will be declared," Scotland's Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon told Scottish lawmakers, adding it would be Thursday.

Indonesian health minister Siti Fadilah Supari said she had been notified by WHO that "today will be declared to be phase 6."

Phase 6 is WHO's highest alert level and means that a swine flu pandemic is under way. The last pandemic — the Hong Kong flu of 1968 — killed about 1 million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people each year.

Since the new flu strain — dubbed A(H1N1) — first emerged in Mexico and the United States in April, it has spread to 74 countries around the globe. On Wednesday, WHO reported 27,737 cases including 141 deaths. The agency has stressed that most cases are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities — especially in poorer countries.

The long-awaited pandemic announcement is scientific confirmation that a new flu virus has emerged and is quickly circling the globe. It will trigger drugmakers to speed up production of a swine flu vaccine and prompt governments to devote more money to containing the virus.

more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090611/ap_on_he_me/un_un_swine_flu

based on symptoms gave the world a real time example of tracking a pandemic. We have at least learned a great deal about how and how quickly viruses can spread globally.

We are still far from out of the woods, though. It could return this fall/winter with renewed strength.

immunity if it does come back in the fall/winter?

It could do that or mutate and be beyond the ability of the immunized.

It could kill absolutely nobody and still go to Level 6 based on how widely it spreads.

...but you're right, I think the Pollyanna attitude here is unjustified most of the time.

Have had other flu viruses which were MUCH worse, but this one was nothing to ignore. It's still in our area from what our pediatrician said.

We have asthma but took all the necessary steps to keep it in check.

went so nutso over the flu stuff the first time around that WHO's been holding off on the phase 6 announcement. Here's hoping it doesn't become more deadly.

are you a siamese twin or something?

its not an unusually deadly strain and if anything the transmition rate is lower than most common strains of flu.

H1N1 appears to be more contagious than seasonal influenza," the WHO said in an online statement released today. "The secondary attack rate of seasonal influenza ranges from 5% to 15%. Current estimates of the secondary attack rate of H1N1 range from 22% to 33%." (The secondary attack rate is defined as the frequency of new cases of a disease among the contacts of known cases.)

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/may1109severity.html

We haven't had a pandemic declared in 40 years. It is at this point, however, a relatively mild illness.

I am sure people will be glad to know!

we're all dead!

and I HOPE those who said this was nothing take the time to LEARN that pandeminc does not mean people are dropping off like flies, or anything like that.

I hope they take the time to understand what the term actually means...