What are the regional implications if it gets even uglier in Iran and there's a mass exodus?

I just heard a girl in Iran saying "Many Iranians are planning to flee because of this situation" on an interview CNN International that someone's uploaded to YouTube.

Right at the very end, 5 minutes 25 seconds in: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_rWvAt5Awo

I've been thinking on this and can't figure it out so I thought I'd ask here to get some theories.

What are the regional implications if things get so bad that a million or so Iranians flee the country, where are they most likely to go and what kind of reception would they get?

It's not impossible to travel, but it isn't as "easy" (relative term) as it is in the west.

What odd footage--an Ahmadi rally-- they use to accompany the girl's words. All the "flag wavers" are Ahmadi fans.

In any event, her remarks are conditional--she says "IF" Ahmadi prevails, then people will want to flee.

Her remarks are several days old, too--the situation has brightened a bit since then. Time will tell if Mousavi/Rafsanjani prevail.

That's what I was asking, flee where? Not the kind of get on a plane out of the country flee, more of a skip over the border 'flee'.

I listened to it again and from what I could gather she didn't say if, she said "people are preparing".

There's still several articles going around saying that it's on a knife edge and could go either way.

This one written by Mark LeVine for Al Jazeera English from yesterday, for example, gave me pause for thought...

Iran on the Brink

In 15 years of writing about the Middle East, I have never encountered a situation that changed so fast that one could write an article that becomes outdated in the time it takes to write it.

It seems that the Iranian elite has been caught similarly off-guard, and is still trying to read its own society to understand how broad is the societal discontent reflected in the mass protests.

This calculus is crucial - in some ways more so than whether the results are legitimate or, as some claim, electoral fraud.

It will determine whether the Iranian power elite - that is, the political-religious-military-security leadership who control the levers of state violence - moves towards negotiation and reconciliation between the increasingly distant sides, or moves to crush the mounting opposition with large-scale violence.

A lot depends on what the elite thinks is actually happening on the ground, and why the alleged fraud unfolded as it did.

Full article: http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/06/200961781431119985.html

By the way, do you know what these doctors and nurses are saying at a protest they carried out? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN7-wmo_DLo

(edited to fix typo)

everyone was shouting allahuakbar from the roof. It was before the ten kilometer march and the Mousavi rally. It was before the mourning gathering today. And it was before it was known that Rafsanjani had interjected himself into the whole dynamic and trying to arm twist the Assembly of Experts into tossing Khameini out on his ass--which is changing everything. I'm still "plotzing" over the fact that there have been demonstrations against the fraudulent election in QOM of all places! That's very unexpected, almost like holding church in a strip club! Well, maybe not quite like that--but unexpected. There's a theological seminary there, and it's conservative, and there's a tendency for people to keep their powder dry and their alliances low-key....because, hey--ya never know!

That is a great AJ article, I find the fraud theories especially fascinating. I have a THIRD scenario--I think yes, the fraud was sort of planned, but I also think that, because the results couldn't be gamed, a new strategy was executed at the last minute. Here's why I think this.

There were way too many ballots printed ahead of the election. A bunch of them "went missing." I think the original plan was to "fill in" extra ballots to put Ahmadi over the top, because they didn't think he would lose by that much (up until the debates, he was ahead--after he went after Mousavi's wife on the tv and started talking crazy, well, not so much). But the exit polls showed them that Ahmadi was going down, HARD, so instead, they simply said, "Screw counting the ballots, let's make up the numbers." And then, when they did count them, it was even WORSE than they feared, with Ahmadi coming in THIRD, not even a distant second. Also, there's the letter from the poll workers, who said the results were not "healthy" which is a polite way of saying they were gamed. Anyway, that's my theory, it's as good as the rest of them!

The doctors and nurses are shouting 'God is great' and there is a woman saying that 28 are hurt and eight are killed. I cannot decipher what the doctor and the guy are saying at the end--I am so rusty it's pathetic (I am starting to remember a bit more than the swears, though--I guess those brain cells don't entirely die off, they just go to sleep).

I hope "The Shark" (Rafsanjani) gathers the clout, first, and does the right thing, second. Khameini needs to go. I still can't believe he'd be so childishly vindictive about Mousavi that he'd do this sort of thing. But apparently, he can, and did.

I have a horrible feeling about the way this is going...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3930041#3930130

I think the Mousavi faction understands very clearly how much of a mendacious shit he is, and that they are in the fight of their life. I do not think they will back down, because if they do, there will be hell to pay. I think they are prepared for a cycle of martyrdom and mourning, for as long as it takes.

I do hope Rafsanjani can shake some trees and get the Assembly to see things his way. If he can do that, then Special K will be given his marching orders, and it will be a whole new ball game. I suspect, though, that this might be a protracted process.

North Korea shoots anyone who tries to escape.