AlterNet: 'Green Shoots' of Recovery? Don't Fall for the Media's Economic Triumphalism

'Green Shoots' of Recovery? Don't Fall for the Media's Economic Triumphalism

By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted June 22, 2009.

A narrative is emerging that we're seeing the first signs that a recovery is around the corner, but the reality is less encouraging.



Amid the most painful period of economic turbulence in generations, a narrative has emerged that a handful of less-than-catastrophic economic reports represent the first "green shoots" of a healthy return to growth.

When a slew of absolutely depressing economic data were released in late May, economist Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote: "these reports might have led to gloomy news stories, but... the media have obviously abandoned economic reporting and instead have adopted the role of cheerleader, touting whatever good news it can find and inventing good news when none can be found."

In other words, the green shoots narrative should be met with healthy skepticism. New York University economist Nouriel Roubini -- who earned the moniker "Doctor Doom" for correctly anticipating the crash -- says that rather than "green shoots," we're seeing some "yellow weeds" emerging from the cracks of our shattered system, and argues that there's every likelihood that a "recovery" will mean several years of sluggish, below-average growth for the industrialized economies.

Most economists do agree that extraordinarily aggressive interventions by our government and those of other key countries -- whatever criticism one may have of their specifics -- have averted, for the moment, the worst-case scenario: a deflationary "death spiral" in which people don't spend, firms lay off workers and state revenues dry up just when they're needed the most, causing yet more austerity and more downsizing. ...........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.alternet.org/workplace/140758/%27green_shoots%27_of_recovery_don%27t_fall_for_the_media%27s_economic_triumphalism/