Rasmussen Continues To Lead The Fake Poll Index

http://www.newscorpse.com/ncWP/

Rasmussen Continues To Lead The Fake Poll Index
Filed under: General — Mark @ 12:05 pm


In a survey conducted by News Corpse of pollsters who invent statistical models for the purpose of advancing their bias, Rasmussen scored a new high of 100% disreputability.

Last April, I wrote about how Rasmussen had created a new index to classify polling results. He labeled his survey break points as being either “mainstream Americans” or the “political class.” These groupings were based on the answers to a set of three questions that had less to do with the new classifications than on whether the subject was clinically paranoid.

Rasmussen is at it again. Now he has a survey that that he calls a “Presidential Approval Index.” He arrives at the results by subtracting the number of respondents who strongly disapprove from those who strongly approve. Then he states the remainder as representative of the President’s national popularity.

The problem with this method is that it ignores all of those who approve or disapprove, albeit not strongly. In his own survey, the Presidential Approval Index is a negative 1 (-1), which he then releases to the media as demonstrating that the Obama honeymoon is over. However, his results including all respondents show that Obama is regarded favorably by a healthy majority of 54%, compared to 45% who disapprove (+7). This does not get reported to the press, but is published on the Rasmussen web site for those who seek additional data.

Obama’s approval ratings have not varied by more than 5 points in the past three months according to Rasmussen (who typically produces lower numbers than other polling firms). But he has found a novel and dishonest way of portraying the President’s numbers as falling off. As a result of this trend toward opinion-driven polling, Rasmussen has emerged as the number one most likely pollster to be interviewed on Fox News.

I have found over the last couple of elections, Rassmussen has come the closest in accuracy. all this poll is showing is that the honeymoon is starting to end for Obama - which is it...and it is time for it to. All presidents get about 6-9 months of love time and then people start really looking at what they are doing. These new poll numbers are to be expected. It is also to be expected for this approval index number to go even higher in the negative until the economy recovers.

Even Obama knows this...that is why he is wanting to push through health care, energy, and economic policy all at once...in the very beginning. He knows his first 6-9 months in office is the time when his poll numbers will be the highest and it will be easier for him to get stuff passed.

He is still very popular - 58% approval rating is nothing to sneeze about. Of course, as the economy lingers, his numbers are going to continue to slip. Once the economy starts to pick up, so will Obama's approval rating.

I don't believe this is some purposeful dishonesty on Rassmussen's part. Just because you don't like what the numbers say, doesn't mean they are wrong or the person reporting them is dishonest. He really is the most objective, which is probably why he is the most accurate. I remember the Repubs talking early on how the election was lost because Rass numbers said so...and he ended up being right and the closest with the actual outcome. He uses a different polling system than the other polling outlets. I guess this is why his numbers are always slightly different.

frame their questions to get the answers they most want.

Here's google, with 14,800 hits for 'rasmussen polling inaccurate':

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&q=rasmussen+polling+inaccurate&aq=f&oq=&aqi=&fp=leBsIIJAIN0

frame their questions to get the answer they want. I am just saying, in my opinion of watching polls closely, I have found Rass to be the most accurate. And doing a google search for Rassmussen+polling+inaccuracy means nothing. I can do that with any of the polling services and get the same google results:

CBS: 12,900 hits for http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=rgs&q=cbs%2Bpolling%2Binaccuracies&aq=f&oq=&aqi=

NBC: 11,700 for http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=RMD&q=nbc%2Bpolling%2Binaccuracies&aq=f&oq=&aqi=

ABC: 17,900 for http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=zis&q=abc%2Bpolling%2Binaccuracies&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=

CNN: 20,700 for http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=Zjs&q=cnn%2Bpolling%2Binaccuracies&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=

Zogby: 13,300 for http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=yPD&q=zogby%2Bpolling%2Binaccuracies&aq=f&oq=&aqi=

You get the picture....

Besides, he isn't the only one publishing dipping polls for Obama. From Politico:

Surveys released last week by Pew, NBC News/Wall Street Journal and The New York Times/CBS News, show a similar pattern. The Pew survey, for example, registered an eight-point drop in public approval for Obama’s handling of the economy — falling from 60 percent to 52 percent between mid-April and June. The percentage of Americans who disapprove jumped by 7 points during the same period.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/24025.html#ixzz0JCZhZ9Kr&C

Like I said before, this is to be expected. All presidents go through this. Obama is still very popular.

Rassmussen...

Politico is not saying that Obama's numbers are down...they are reporting that most of the polling outlets are reporting Obama's numbers down.

Pew - reporting his numbers down
NBC/WSJ - reporting his numbers down
NYT/CBS - reporting his numbers are down

Read the article: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/24025.html

Rasmussen is not to be trusted.

They have a r/w bent and are run by wingers:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen

In 1995, he founded a polling company called GrassRoots Research.<1> In 1999, his company Rasmussen Research was bought by TownPagesNet.com for about $4.5 million in ordinary shares.<5> As of 2008, Scott Rasmussen is the CEO of Rasmussen Reports (a separate company) and describes himself as having been an independent public opinion pollster for more than a decade.<6> He received $95,500 from the Republican National Committee and $45,500 from the George W. Bush presidential campaign as a campaign consultant for the 2004 presidential election.<7>

I have found his polling data the most accurate year over year...regardless of who he worked for. If you go back and look starting with the 2004 presidential campaign, he ended up having the most accurate numbers. He was also the one who said early on the Dems would take back control of Congress, even when the Repubs were saying it ain't so...he was right about that. And like I said in my original post, he was one of the first to call the election for Obama by a large margin...and he was right. The other polling services had Obama/McCain closer state by state. The day before the election, most polling services had Ohio and Florida as a toss up whereas, Rass had both states for Obama.

I really don't care who works for who and who takes money from whom. I look at the quality of work they produce and so far, Rass has done good work.

But if you don't trust him, you don't trust him.

'results' they come up with. :think:

Private individuals and organizations typically pay people who are specialized in polling to run polls, and they are free to stipulate how the poll is run, including making push polls, and Rasmussen was never above making push polls. Either way, he always received a check whenever Republicans commissioned the polls.

Subtract the number of strong disapprove from the strong approve and divide the rest by pi and add that to the total...I call it my Pi index of approval. And besides it fits well on a pie chart.