Iran: Where Did All The Votes Come From? - BBC

Iran: where did all the votes come from?
By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website

<snip>

A statistical analysis has now been published to try to support the claim that the opposition in Iran is right to question the declared result. On the face of it, there seems no reason to doubt the official numbers.

In 2005, in a run-off ballot, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president with 62% of the vote compared with 36% for his opponent, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. In 2009, in the first round, President Ahmadinejad was re-elected with 63% of the vote compared with 34% for Mir Hossein Mousavi.

So what is the problem?

According to a study edited by Professor Ali Ansari, of the Institute of Iranian Studies at the University of St Andrews and of the London think tank Chatham House, the problem lies in the increased turnout.

In 2005, Mr Ahmadinejad got 17 million votes and in 2009 he got 24 million.

The question is, where did all those extra votes come from?

The answer, according to this study, is not at all clear.

It examines three factors:

<snip>

The rest: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8113885.stm

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My favorite part:

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The study says: "In a third of all provinces, the official results would require that Ahmadinejad took not only all former conservative voters, and all former centrist voters, and all new voters, but also up to 44% of former reformist voters, despite a decade of conflict between these two groups."

You can see the point raised by looking at results from the provinces.

Take Hamedan. In 2005, Mr Ahmadinejad won 195,000 votes. In 2009, it was 765,000 - a difference of 570,000.

If you add to his 2005 vote the others who voted for conservative candidates in that year (97,000) and the non-voters (218,000), you reach only 510,000.

To get to the total declared of 765,000 this year, many reformist voters from 2005 must also have voted for Mr Ahmadinejad.

The report says that, for the official figures to be correct, 24% of former reformist voters must have voted for Mr Ahamdinajed this time.

In Lorestan province, the study estimates that 44% of former reformist voters would have had to have voted for President Ahmadinejad.

Is this possible? Yes. Is it likely? The report doubts it.

<snip>

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The actual report (.pdf file): http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/22_06_09_chathamiran.pdf

Enjoy... I think.

:shrug:

Out of someone's ass.

:crazy:

.

As less and less people vote. It will erode the peoples trust and confidence in their government.