Battle for Iran shifts from the streets to the heart of power

Battle for Iran shifts from the streets to the heart of power

Ayatollah Khamenei's support for President Ahmadinejad has led both moderates and hard-liners to start plotting against him


The power struggle inside Iran appears to be moving from the streets into the heart of the regime itself this weekend amid reports that Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani is plotting to undermine the power of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rafsanjani's manoeuvres against Khamenei come as tensions between the speaker of the parliament, Ali Larijani, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also appeared to be coming to a head.

Mass demonstrations on the streets against the election results have been effectively crushed by a massive police and basiij militia presence that has seen several dozen deaths and the arrests of hundreds of supporters of defeated candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. But the splits within Iran's political elite are deepening.

In the past few days, Larijani - who was fired by Ahmadinejad as chief negotiator on nuclear issues with the west - has announced his intention of setting up a parliamentary committee to examine the recent post-election violence in an "even-handed way". In response, Ahmadinejad supporters within the parliament have discussed the possibility of impeaching Larijani.

In a move with even greater potential significance, according to several reports Rafsanjani has been lobbying fellow members of the powerful 86-strong Assembly of Experts, which he chairs, to replace Khamenei as the supreme leader with a small committee of senior ayatollahs, of which Khamenei would be a member. If Rafsanjani were successful, the constitutional change would mean a profound shift in the balance of power within Iran's theocratic regime.

"Although Hashemi Rafsanjani is not a popular politician in Iran any more, he is the only hope that Iranians have ... for the annulment of the election," said an Iranian political analyst who asked not be named. "He is the only one who people think is able to stand against the supreme leader."

more...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/jun/28/iran-mahmoud-ahmadinejad

:kick:

but it doesn't strike me that replacing one ayatollah with a committee of ayatollahs would lead to the end of theocracy.

High level plotting and intrigue always rears it's head when there is expressed unrest which occupies the people in power. Keeping power is an ongoing and constant struggle.

This would be fascinating in a movie, but it's truly a sad thing for the people of Iran. I fear no outcome will benefit them, short of a total outing of theocracy. This is when the CIA and other nefarious organizations from other countries step in. If Bush were still president this would be a wet dream come true. After all this adds to unrest in the region which brings a perfect opportunity to make money on the sale of arms to all sides of the conflict.

There are so many similarities to the early stages of the uprising against the Shah and Savak in 1978. Khomeni and his supporters used the streets at first and then went underground...distributing cassette tapes (the Twitter of the day), holding general strikes and other forms of civil disobdience that rattled both the Shah and his military. We could be seeing a replay here as Rafsanjani and other "reformers" use their popularity to get inside the heads of Khamenei, Ahmajenajhad and other "right wingers". The wild card here will be the will of the supporters of reform and the ability of a Rafsanjani and Mosevi to communicate and unite these people.

Revolutions are never clear cut and clean...they go through several phases that tends to be a generational challenge. We saw it in China in the 70's.

I see a "war of attrition" developing as age will take its toll on the "religious right" and the reformers gain political skill.

:hi:

:kick: