Keep an eye on this: Prediction of Violence by Karzai Challenger Probed

Source: AP

KABUL — Afghan authorities are investigating the campaign manager for the top challenger to President Hamid Karzai after a news report quoted him as saying street demonstrations will "turn bad" if his candidate loses the upcoming election, officials said Monday.

Abdullah Abdullah's campaign manager, Abdul Sattar Murad, was quoted by the United Arab Emirates-based paper The National as saying that if Karzai wins the Aug. 20 vote "there will be a big demonstration, street demonstrations, and it will turn bad. The country will land in the middle of a crisis."

Murad was also quoted as saying his team would not accept a Karzai win because Karzai can win only through "large-scale corruption."

Murad told The Associated Press on Monday that the Interior Ministry contacted him about the comments but that he told the ministry he did not say them. However, The National told the AP it had a recording of the conversation and that all quotes were accurate.

The story, which was published last week, also quoted Afghan analyst Haroun Mir as saying "people will come with Kalishnikovs" if Abdullah does not win. Mir is the co-founder of Afghanistan's Center for Research and Policy Studies and was an aide to the late Ahmad Shah Massoud, a popular Northern Alliance leader with whom Abdullah was closely associated. Mir could not be reached for comment.

(snip)

If authorities arrest Murad just weeks before the vote, it could cause a serious upheaval among Abdullah's supporters in the northern Tajik community. Abdullah is half Tajik and closely associated with the ethnic group. Karzai is an ethnic Pashtun, the dominant group in the country's south and east. Pashtuns make up 40 percent of the country's 30 million people; Tajiks make up 25 percent.

There has been little tension between the groups since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion to oust the Taliban regime. But the groups fought a vicious civil war in the early 1990s.

(snip)

Mir told The National that if the election goes to a second round — which will happen if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote — the country will "polarize along ethnic lines."

"If Abdullah says, 'I don't accept the outcome of the elections,' what will happen? We will not have peaceful demonstrations in Kabul like in Tehran or elsewhere. People will come with their Kalishnikovs. Every single home in Kabul has a gun," Mir was quoted as saying.

more: http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gH6zTk0ZvJGljIu7bpEh3P2uECEwD99RD3P01

Source: The National

KABUL // The campaign chairman for the main rival to President Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan’s upcoming elections has warned that his team will actively reject a result that has the incumbent winning.

In stark terms with potentially severe implications for the country’s future, Abdul Sattar Murad said supporters of Abdullah Abdullah would take part in mass protests if their candidate was not victorious.

“We will not accept it. cannot win unless he resorts to large-scale corruption, so we will not accept that. The nation is not voting for him. He only gets votes through his governors and by corruption,” he said.

(snip)

Describing Mr Karzai as “a thief”, he stated more than once that any victory for the president will be regarded as a fix and Mr Abdullah’s supporters would not accept it.
“There will be a big demonstration, street demonstrations, and it will turn bad. The country will land in the middle of a crisis,” he said.

“What we see right now is that Dr Abdullah is going to win. If it’s the people’s vote and mandate, he is going to win. If it’s the governors’ and the election commission’s mandate and vote, Karzai is going to win.”

Insults and suspicion are nothing new to the political scene here. Last week, Mr Karzai pulled out of a television debate with his two main challengers, accusing the network hosting it of being biased.

(snip)

“With Karzai as president, with Dr Ludin as head of the election commission, zero per cent we are confident ,” he said.
The IEC was established in accordance with Afghanistan’s constitution. It oversaw the presidential election in 2004 and the parliamentary and provincial council elections a year later. International monitors will be present on Aug 20. Noor Mohammad Noor, spokesman for the IEC, called on anyone with proof of fraud to present the evidence to it or the Electoral Complaints Commission. He categorically denied that the IEC is secretly backing Mr Karzai, adding, “the Afghan people believe us”.

A second round is scheduled to take place if no candidate gets more than half the vote – something Mr Murad insisted would happen only if Mr Karzai “can resort to 50 per cent of he has planned”. Otherwise, he said, Mr Abdullah would win at the first time of asking.

http://www.thenational.ae/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090728/FOREIGN/707279834/1103/SPORT

Source: Media Newswire

Columbia Faculty Analyze Major Elections Underway Around the Globe

At a White House meeting in July, President Barack Obama said Afghanistan’s August presidential election will hopefully begin a “transition to a different phase” of U.S. involvement there, with Afghanis “taking more responsibility for their own security.”

Yet according to a recent article in The American Interest by Stephen Biddle, adjunct associate professor of international and public affairs, “there is no easy way out of Afghanistan, no clear light at either end of the tunnel, for President Obama.” Biddle says Obama must balance political pressure at home with the need to keep turmoil in Afghanistan “from aggravating Pakistan’s internal problems and magnifying the danger of an al-Qaeda nuclear-armed sanctuary there.”

President Hamid Karzai is a favorite to win the election even though, according to Biddle, his “government is widely seen as corrupt.” A strong contender has recently emerged in Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Afghanistan's former foreign minister, who is off to a late start but may gain enough momentum to force a run-off election if Karzai does not receive more than 50 percent of the vote. The third candidate is Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, who is being advised by James Carville, campaign strategist for former president Bill Clinton.

The Obama administration plans to spend $40 million for election administration and will temporarily increase U.S. troop strength in Afghanistan by 21,000. In January, the Pentagon deployed 17,000 troops to increase pressure on al-Qaeda and resurgent Taliban groups operating on the Pakistan border.

more: http://media-newswire.com/release_1095287.html

KABUL, Afghanistan, Aug. 3 (UPI) -- Western and international observers spread out in Afghanistan in preparation for national elections Aug. 20 in what is expected to be a tumultuous contest.

Afghans head to the polls in less than three weeks to cast their ballots in their second-ever democratic election to pick their next president and provincial council leaders.

Donkey teams are fanning out into the Afghan countryside to distribute thousands of paper ballots, while international troops rush to protect the country's 7,000 polling places from insurgent attacks.

Several of the 17 million registered Afghan voters may be unable to take part in the elections, however, because as many as 700 polling centers could be closed because of lingering violence, London's Guardian newspaper reports.

http://www.upi.com/Emerging_Threats/2009/08/03/Unrest-to-follow-Afghan-vote/UPI-25621249321085/

Source: VOA

Afghanistan's August 20th presidential election features a crowded field of candidates, but only two are considered challengers to incumbent President Hamid Karzai. The election presents the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama with some knotty problems as it attempts to calibrate its new strategy in Afghanistan.

When Hamid Karzai was installed as president by the international community in 2001, he was widely seen, particularly by the United States, as the bright hope of Afghanistan's future after the fall of the Taliban.

Now, as Mr. Karzai runs for re-election, the picture has changed markedly. The Taliban, once thought of as a defeated entity, has re-emerged as a full-blown insurgency. And Mr. Karzai is now widely seen as presiding over a corrupt government, says analyst Nora Bensahel of the RAND Corporation.

"The Karzai government is perceived by many people in Afghanistan as corrupt," Bensahel said. "Whether or not they blame Karzai for that personally, I think that there is a general sense among significant parts of the population that it may be time for a change. And people are certainly listening to the candidates that are running for office."

Good article at link: http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-08-03-voa34.cfm

Analysts say that Mr. Karzai also has been cutting political deals with local ethnic and tribal leaders to ensure his re-election. Candace Rondeaux says it is not at all clear that he can come through on his promises, and that could have a future impact on U.S. and allied military operations.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-08-03-voa34.cfm

KAYAN: While his election challengers pound the campaign trail, Afghan president Hamid Karzai
is pursuing his own strategy for the looming polls:
woo one powerful local leader and win a million votes.

In the small hamlet of Kayan, deep in the central highlands of Afghanistan, men in turbans and women and children in sparkling dresses — all members of the Ismaili sect of Shia Islam —camp out in the shade of mulberry trees.

They have gathered for a glimpse of their spiritual leader Sayed Mansoor Naderi and a frenzy breaks out when the silver-haired man swaggers through the crowd, cutting a regal figure dressed all in black. Leaders of the sect headed by the Aga Khan say there are one million Ismailis in Afghanistan.

It is not the first deal Karzai has struck with local strongmen, warlords and tribal leaders, who will guide the votes of legions of their supporters.

more: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/4854120.cms