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Economic pundits predict a "W" shaped recession

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Turbineguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 06:14 AM
Original message
Economic pundits predict a "W" shaped recession
Edited on Fri Aug-07-09 06:15 AM by Turbineguy
How ironic is that?:rofl:

Just now on CNBC
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 06:17 AM
Response to Original message
1. Well where are we right now?
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Turbineguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 06:18 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Somewhere in the middle.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 06:19 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. So we'll see an increase and then another dip...
Hopefully that dip doesn't come in 2012. :o
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Turbineguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 06:26 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. That's what these guys say
however... healthcare is something like 16 percent of the economy. Reform would have a dislocative effect. Fewer people going bankrupt and such.
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zbdent Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 08:01 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. The dip may be installed January 20, 2013
if the media continues its "slobbering fawning" over Obama, as it's routinely described by Repugs ... all the "slobbering fawning" over Obama will surely result in a Repug being elected in 2012 ...
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leveymg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 07:23 AM
Response to Original message
5. That's how the Great Depression was shaped. There was a rebound in '30, and then wham!
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TexasObserver Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 07:37 AM
Response to Original message
6. The more success Obama has in restoring the economy, the more they push this.
They're saying we are in the middle of the W now, and that another big dip is coming next year, a huge one. These are the naysayers who WANT to see Obama fail, who want to see the GOP win seats next year in congress, who want to see another big dip in the stock market.

The same financial goons who told Mr. and Mrs. American keep their money in the stock market while the DOW fell from 13000 to 8000 last year now claim the recovery we are seeing is just a false movement that won't last.

If there is one thing history has shown, it's that the stock market does better under Democratic presidents, in spite of the constant carping of the stock market "experts." Wall Street hates Democratic presidents because they're almost all Republicans, and they can't stand having decent regulations on their conduct. They want a president who will let them do whatever they want, because it's not really the overall health of the markets they want. No, they want a market where they can run loose and do whatever they want. To hell with the public and their IRAs. Those are the Marks of these Wall Street goons.

Merrill Lynch advised trusts and foundations and other institutional investors to stay in the equity markets all of 2008, in spite of the fact the markets were clearly losing 40-50% of their values. They rode it all the way down. Then when the markets hit bottom in March, after Obama took office and rallied, they advised those same institutional investors to stay out. There are trillions of dollars sitting on the side lines during this rally since March, and the Wall Street investment types, the same people who got bailed out last year, are keeping those investors on the side line.

This claim that we will have a W recovery is aimed at letting the air out of the successes we are seeing since March. The markets have had a 40% gain since March, and instead of touting it as great, these guys are claiming "OMG, we're going back into a trench very soon!"

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berni_mccoy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 07:45 AM
Response to Original message
7. Like Bush pissing his letter in the snow... he left his mark on the economy.
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FarCenter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
9. The dip would come in a few quarters
The uptick now is said to be rebuilding of inventories.

However, don't expect net hiring until the 4th quarter.

There are lots of mortgages with teaser rates that have not yet reset -- this continues into 2010.

Commercial mortgages are yet to hit the fan. This will probably start the second dip, as lending seizes up again.
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Davis_X_Machina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-07-09 09:11 AM
Response to Original message
10. Demands from deficit scolds....
...will grow -- and there are plenty of people here who are deficit-obsessive -- and the resulting retrenchment will tip the economy over the edge of the second V. Happened in '37 with Roosevelt -- he listened to the deficit scolds, and the '37 recession all by itself is one of the worst on record.

The government can't be run like a business, doesn't run like a business, and the fact that you have to balance your checkbook every month is interesting but irrelevant.
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