As rally continues, DU's Stock Market Watch ceases reporting Stock Market.

When the markets were crashing in September and October I could rely on DU's Stock Market Watch for a blow by blow account of the crash. Now, since the S&P 500 has risen 50% since it's March lows, reports of the Stock Market indices have mysteriously dried up. A case in point, today there's nothing. Lots of useful information on economic indicators, but the actual Stock Market, forget it.

We don't have to clog up GD with stock market updates every day?

If the content of SMW has changed, perhaps a name change is in order.

It was stupid to focus on it then and it's stupid to focus on it now.

Superannuation. Wealth effect on consumption. Confidence. Did the crash 'improve the economic lives of most ordinary Americans'. You're full of it.

S&P rising 40% means the investment net worth of Americans rises 40%.

Granted the wealth is concentrated among the wealthy but to pretend like the middle class is decoupled from the stock market is just silly.

Why do you think consumer spending fell so hard?

Perceived financial security. People saw their homes & retirement accounts (which is 99% of net worth for most people) fall 40%.

It's reported every day. And then people post updates throughout the day. Usually someone posts the ending numbers too. If you want it posted more frequently, then go to the site and post it. You make no sense at all.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4004476

compared with four to five updates per day during the crash.

is upset that we still have food, electricity, homes, and the vast majority of the people of this country are still working, earning a living.

They wanted chaos for some weird reason, and it didn't happen.

The smart thing to do was buy when there was blood in the streets.

It ain't over, not by a long shot, but at least the bottom has been found. We may bounce off it a few times, but things are slowly turning.

Maybe it ought to be retitled 'Paradise Lost'.

You will find a SMW in LBN dated every day for the past several years.

As for your charge that a market index hasn't appeared recently... Well, I'm partially to blame for that. Along about Inauguration Day I swore (as did many posters in the SMW) to cease reporting the numbers in deference to the new administration. To not let the taint of the Bush Regime spoil a fresh start for President Obama.


There were several reasons for this... The primary reason being some of the sites we were obtaining the Market Data from were becoming militant about our posting data they PAY A SERVICE TO PROVIDE on their news site web pages.

Also, there was a consensus among us that on their own the Market Indexes are a poor reflection of the state of the overall US Economy.

I might also point out ozymandius went to great lengths to redesign the OP SMW template to depoliticize it while still presenting as much relevant near real time financial factual data as possible.

You are welcome to come post data... Any time.

Our current economy, unemployement numbers or wages do not support this rally. It is a sucker play, bring in all that sidelined money and then take it to its knees late in the year. "Ow we didn't see it coming!! Out of nowhere!"

I'll believe things are getting better when wages rise. Been waiting for that for 30 years.

Until then it's just money being moved around.

Bear markets have three distinct phases: 1) sharp downturn; 2) reflexive rebound (where we are); 3) drawn out fundamental downtrend. Do you think we are in a bear market rally or as Goldman Sachs Abby Cohen asserts, the beginning of a new bull market?

I'm going with the bear market rally hypothesis. The market has risen partly because we are in phase 2. However, it's mainly risen because of the Fed's monetization of the debt and quantitative easing. (Look for an announcement next week from the Fed's OMC about the end of quantitative easing). Basically all that money the Fed is giving to the banks has to go somewhere and it ain't into the real economy as loans to businesses and consumers. (Consumer spending makes up 70% of the economy). It's simply been poured into securities and commodity markets. Production and trade have actually fallen faster and farther than the those declines in the Great Depression. This means that the fundamentals of our economy are the weakest in about 100 years.

So this steep rise in stock market indices is expected--as is a resumption in the decline of the indices (Please familiarize yourself with charts of the indices from 1929-1934 and more recently 2003-2007). When will the decline resume? THAT IS THE IMPORTANT QUESTION. When to exit? How to protect your gains? Common wisdom says to exit at a point of euphoria (are the markets euphoric?) If you are a technician, a chartist, we are reaching some important benchmarks such as the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement levels as well as other interesting intersections of moving averages.

An easier method to use? Do a gut check. Are you comfortable with your 401K now and the recovery of your portfolio (if you have one left?) How would you feel if we retest the lows of March? If you're comfortable now, but were contemplating suicide in March, why not sell now and hold cash? PRESERVE YOUR CAPITAL is the name of the game.

Oh, and if you believe that real unemployment is falling, may I interest you in some CRE CDS's?

But, I'll trade you these $500,000,000 Kennedy Bonds for Park Place, dude. ;)

But I'll try to liven things up over there. And personally I would like to hear some knowledgeable predictions about who will come out of this recession as big winners. Late last year, one poster predicted Ford would, and, wow, did this prediction come true. Ford went from $1.50/sh then to $8/sh today.

You know, some people only watch NASCAR to see the crashes.