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Are_grits_groceries Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:18 AM
Original message
Hurricanes Ana and Bill on track for South Florida
You know the tropics wouldn't stay quiet forever.

Ana, the first tropical storm of the 2009 hurricane season, formed early Saturday morning, while a strengthening depression just behind it was expected to be dubbed Tropical Storm Bill by day's end or Sunday.

South Florida sits in the middle of the National Hurricane Center's initial forecast tracks for Ana and soon-to-be-Bill, but with both systems more than 2,000 miles and five or more days away, they could go anywhere from Cuba to South Carolina.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/251/story/73792.html?storylink=MI_emailed

Check out this weather site:http://www.stormpulse.com/tropical-storm-bill-2009

Bill is right behind Ana and on the same path. I do mean right behind.
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Obamanaut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:28 AM
Response to Original message
1. Add to that TD #4 off Tampa with predicted track crossing the panhandle. nt
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Are_grits_groceries Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:32 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Click on the last point on Bill's path.
Look at the data below the map. It has a predicted wind speed of 117mph. If it keeps growing and it is still that far out to sea, it could be huge by the time it reaches land. A lot of factors yet to see though.
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #2
37. weather underground is predicting a Cat 4, up from a Cat 3 yesterday. See
my map as it changes
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cwydro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:34 AM
Response to Original message
3. We're watching here in the Keys.
We got drenched yesterday as what will soon be Claudette formed right on top of us.
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kevinbgoode Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:48 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. I love the Keys. . .:-)...
and I haven't been there in years....sigh. Y'all take good care of yourselves down there...but keep those palm trees and my beautiful Key West and Marathon safe.
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cwydro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:02 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. We're pretty used to it down here, especially this time of year...
and we'll be ready.:hi:
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ixion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:38 AM
Response to Original message
4. that storm pulse map is awesome
thanks for posting!
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:40 AM
Response to Original message
5. Hurricanes?
Ana is not likely to gain hurricane strength. I'd worry more about TS Bill (already named) although none of us knows where will be hit yet with either of them. Looks more like Leewards, Florida, Carolinas but just a slight shift and others will come into play.
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cwydro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:05 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Ana is expected to lose strength today over Haiti;
Bill, though still a tropical storm is over lots of warm water and plenty more to go.

Latest I've seen predicts it will become a major hurricane this week.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:07 AM
Response to Reply #8
9. Bill will be a Cat 2 hurricane
later today or tomorrow.
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cwydro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:09 AM
Response to Reply #9
10. Yep.
Without a doubt.
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Edweird Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:11 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. Yup. You called it about Bill. It's a healthy storm.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #11
20. Yep I told DUers days ago to worry about the
one behind what's now Ana.
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cwydro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:31 AM
Response to Reply #20
21. Yep, the weather channel has been saying that every since it
was a disturbance.

The big ones typically come in August and September; I think there is another about to come off Africa as well.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:33 AM
Response to Reply #21
23. Yep we should worry about the period from now to the
middle of September. This is the real hurricane season.
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Edweird Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 10:27 AM
Response to Reply #23
33. Yup..
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #11
40. The models show it missing the US. Still, it is early
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Edweird Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 05:53 PM
Response to Reply #40
42. It looks like it's following the "Bermuda High'. Storms get taller as they get bigger,
Edited on Sun Aug-16-09 05:55 PM by Edweird
and then they get caught up in it. The only downside is that the Bermuda High expands and contracts... So sometimes it's your worst enemy....

Not that I want to wish ill on anybody, but I sure could use the work a major hurricane would give me.
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:46 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. One of my friends sons makes a lot of money cleaning up after them.
It's been a very slow summer so far.
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JeanGrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #5
14. What a misleading title again!
A lot of people will look at that and believe two hurricanes are out there already. Geesh.
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Cetacea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:12 AM
Response to Reply #14
18. Well, considering the possible scary scenario...
People in Florida SHOULD be acting as if there are two coming one afer the other. The ocean temperatures are at an all time high...The second warmest year produced Katrina, Wilma, and the others.

It's already front page news in Florida with projection maps.
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JeanGrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:47 PM
Response to Reply #18
44. There is no "scary scenario". So far two of these storms will
not reach hurricane status, the third one is being predicted by many in weather to be a "fish" - meaning it will likely curve out to sea.

Hysteria is never pretty.
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Individualist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #44
46. ...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200903_model.html#a_topad
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Cetacea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 10:30 AM
Response to Reply #44
55. Those were not the projections when the OP started thread. n/t
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JeanGrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 03:10 AM
Response to Reply #55
63. The weather sites I read populated by meterologists
never thought they'd be much of anything from the beginning.
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Edweird Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:12 AM
Response to Original message
12. Ana not so much. That's likely a Gulf storm. Bill is the one to watch.
Ana can't seem to get it together.
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kalli007 Donating Member (164 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:35 AM
Response to Reply #12
13. Ana is
coming straight at me! Hope it doesnt make it to hurricane status!
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Cetacea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:54 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. Welcome to DU!
What scares me about this is that the ocean temperatures are higher than the year Florida fgot hit with multiple hurricanes.
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Strong Atheist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 09:34 AM
Response to Reply #13
28. Welcome to DU!



:toast:
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bigwillq Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 05:33 PM
Response to Reply #13
41. Hello.
Welcome to DU! :hi: Stay safe.
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Kajsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #13
53. Welcome to DU!

Stay safe. :hi:
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:04 AM
Response to Original message
16. A new storm just popped up in the gulf - coming fast
Heads up!
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:05 AM
Response to Original message
17. Can one of them PLEASE hit Texas??
Without the destruction - just the rain. We are in a miserable drought here.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #17
26. Any storm in the gulf is potentially dangerous - the water is scorching
But if Ana gets through - you are welcome to have her come your way and not mine!
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Avalux Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Wow - I had no idea the water was that hot in the gulf.
Anything that makes it through has the potential to blow up. Amazing.
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JeanGrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 06:49 PM
Response to Reply #26
45. Do you have a link to anything that shows this water
temperature is the hottest ever? I'd be curious to read it.
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Obamanaut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 07:00 AM
Response to Reply #45
48. warmer than normal recently

http://www.wlox.com/Global/story.asp?s=10575757

<snip>Last week, the weather station near the Bay-Waveland Yacht Club recorded a water temperature of 93 degrees.

<snip>Monday morning, the water temperature was already 89 degrees in the Bay of St. Louis. That's not unexpected. Over the last couple of weeks, the daily readings from that weather station have recorded higher than normal temperatures.


<snip>Graham said the water temperatures are also higher than normal deeper in the Gulf of Mexico

<snip>"Water temperatures are a couple of degrees above normal throughout the Gulf of Mexico.
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JeanGrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 08:48 AM
Response to Reply #48
50. According to what I've seen the water temps around SE
Florida are normal or near normal for this time of year.
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Obamanaut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 02:01 PM
Response to Reply #50
61. OK, the folks at the link lied. You're right. They're wrong. Better? nt
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JeanGrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 03:09 AM
Response to Reply #61
62. I frequent several weather sites that are populated by
weathermen, and meteorologists. All they have done is complain about what a "weenie" year this has been for hurricanes and the reasons why. I just haven't heard anything from them about super hot water and the season being much worse. In fact they expect it to be much less.
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Obamanaut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 05:51 AM
Response to Reply #62
64. No need for explanation. I agreed that the source
I cited, in response to your request in post #45, was wrong. You could have asked your more knowledgeable sources. Or maybe "my source can beat up your source."

Interesting though that weathermen and meteorologists would complain about a "weenie" year for hurricanes, considering how much damage and human suffering they often bring. Seems somehow callous and unfeeling.
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JeanGrey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 09:24 AM
Response to Reply #64
67. From what I can tell, on every site I've ever been on,
it's what they live for.
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Kajsa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #26
54. That is very hot water!

Here on the left coast our water is very cool this summer,
especially north of Laguna Beach, CA.

That seems to be the border between water in the 50's-low 60's
and water in the high 60's- low 70's.
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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #17
59. +1 nt
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Are_grits_groceries Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:17 AM
Response to Original message
19. Yes, Ana is a TS. My bad.
However, in the last few years, some of the storms seem to just "blow up" and rapidly increase in size. I would never bet on any of them.
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:32 AM
Response to Reply #19
22. Both are TS's at this time
Let's not become M$Greedia's spinners. When they blow up we can state the facts. Indeed we can point out that Bill is projected to become a Cat 2 hurricane before the end of today. :hi:

We may all be lucky as Bill may stay in the Atlantic
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Are_grits_groceries Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:38 AM
Response to Reply #22
24. I'm always thinking ahead
when it comes to storms. I also borrow trouble.
If what Hagee says is true and Gawd hits sinners, Sanford has doomed SC.:hi:
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 08:43 AM
Response to Reply #24
25. Hagee is a lying sack of shit as well
Edited on Sun Aug-16-09 09:00 AM by malaise
and that's good for the people of SC.
Yep we need to prepare for the worst and watch these storms

sp
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 09:49 AM
Response to Reply #19
29. TS Bill now 60mph n/t
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Edweird Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 10:25 AM
Response to Reply #29
31. Looks like Bermuda High to the rescue.
If Bill blows up like it looks like it is, then it will be tall enough to be controlled by the Bermuda High. Hence, the new projected path....
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aikoaiko Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 10:15 AM
Response to Original message
30. This is my favorite hurricane/storm tracking site.
Edited on Sun Aug-16-09 10:17 AM by aikoaiko

All the maps I could ever want to see. Loads up fast, too (slow loading is my biggest gripe with most other weather map sites).

http://www.beaumontweather.com/
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #30
32. I have another one
Gotta have all my live local radar loops


http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=1210
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #30
35. Nice indeed
Thanks
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HCE SuiGeneris Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 10:48 AM
Response to Original message
34. This is Bill
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 11:16 AM
Response to Original message
36. Check back on the image below. It will change a couple times a day.
Yesterday they only saw it as a Cat 3. Maybe it will curve to the north and miss the US.

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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 11:19 AM
Response to Original message
38. Actually not really...
If you look at NWS, they predict Ana is gonna go up the island chain through Cuba and fizzle out.

If you look at NWS, they predict Bill is gonna hook to the North.. It looks more likely to hit the Outer Banks of North Carolina than Florida.

TD4 will become the C storm and hit Florida and/or Alabama tomorrow but it will be relatively minor.

It is not impossible that all three will hit Florida but it seems rather unlikely.

The only one that is a real threat at this time is Bill.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
39. Just upgraded to T.S. Claudette
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pipi_k Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-16-09 07:02 PM
Response to Original message
47. Whoa...not that I expect it to, but if Bill keeps on the same path
without veering at all, it could slam right into NYC.

The northeast hasn't seen a hurricane in a long time. Maybe "Bob" in '92 I think?
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Cetacea Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #47
58. Correct. n/t
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cwydro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 07:07 AM
Response to Original message
49. We're expecting Ana to bring us some rain here in the Keys,
just as Claudette did as she formed and blew by the other day. No hurricane, not even a tropical storm anymore.

Bill is just a Cat 1 and looking to go out to sea.

Fine with me.
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Baclava Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 09:43 AM
Response to Reply #49
51. Yep - Bill looks to be a fish storm - unless you live in Bermuda, I wouldn't worry about it.
Ana on the otherhand might re-fire if it makes it into the gulf.

If Claudette had formed a few hundred miles further out, with more time to develop - she could have been trouble.
As it was, I waved to her as she flew over my head last night - barely a summer breeze.
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 09:46 AM
Response to Original message
52. Ana is not well organized & Bill's probably veering toward Bermuda
Out east coast will probably skate this time :)
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malaise Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 06:35 AM
Response to Reply #52
65. Ana looks like she's redeveloping
She can still cause trouble
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SoCalDem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 01:57 PM
Response to Reply #65
68. Here's hoping it just some rain
Too bad Ana can't help texas out a little :(
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Shagbark Hickory Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 10:31 AM
Response to Original message
56. Newsflash. Nobody gives a damn about florida getting hurricanes. Hooray for florida n/t
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SidDithers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 10:39 AM
Response to Original message
57. Jeff Masters blog at Weather Underground...
is always a good resource for hurricane models.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1283

He doesn't think there will even be an Ana by tomorrow. And, he doesn't think Bill will hit Florida.

Sid
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alfredo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-17-09 12:20 PM
Response to Reply #57
60. Maybe Nova Scotia.
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timtom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 06:39 AM
Response to Original message
66. Bill is heading for the Northeast US.
Edited on Tue Aug-18-09 06:41 AM by timtom
Ana has dissipated.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/storm/homepage/index.html
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onestepforward Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
69. I don't wish the storms to hit anyone, including Texas.
Many people here are still trying to recover from last year, especially poor people.
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