Who truly believes the GOP is going to swamp the Democrats in next election?

The GOP are spreading the rumor that they might win back the House in the next election? They believe there will be such a decline in Democratic voters and such a surge in Republican voters that they could have a majority after the next election? Do you believe that?

Are they ready to put these big-spending, taxcuts for the wealthy, paranoid militaristic, self righteous better than everyone else going to heaven riding on a gold caboose, lying SOB's back in charge? If they are ready to do that, after the unmitigated disaster we are still trying to clean up from their last binge, then all hope may indeed be lost?

Personally, I cannot believe the American people are that stupid. I will be surprised if they win more than a dozen seats. Unless there is an amnesia epidemic, I simple cannot believe the Republicans will win anything for the next several years. I believe they are whistling past the graveyard, with their names on the tombstones. Surely they don't hate their country that much?

They will pick up seats, simply because we have A LOT of them. We have a lot of traditionally red ones. So history and common sense says they'll gain some. I bet 10 is about right, if I had to set the line.

The midterm election is 433 days away.

One day long ago, it was thought impossible that Truman would beat Dewey. Before that, it was thought impossible that the human body could travel at a speed of 100 mph and survive.

It was thought impossible that man could travel faster than the speed of sound.

It was thought impossible that simple hygiene could stop surgery patients from getting infections that killed them after successful surgeries.

Many things that were once thought impossible are now every day occurances.

GHWB had an astronomical approval rating after Desert Storm, and lost the general election that followed.

You keep on thinking that it's impossible for us to lose the House majority in 2010 and I'll keep on working to ensure that it doesn't happen. I guess I'll have to work that much harder, knowing that some on my side of the aisle take keeping that majority for granted.

On what fact do you base your number? Any number of things can happen in the meantime.

but I stand by my 10 seat gain as the line I would set as a bookie (right now.) Yes things change and so do lines in gambling. So my assessment (and line) might be different on any one of those future 433 days. But GOP +10 is what you would get placing an over/under with me right now. On what facts do I base my number? The same ones I have already stated: 1). Democrats controlling traditionally red districts 2). Historic loss of House seats for the president's party during mid-terms.

I don't believe they can win back the majority but they could pick up significant numbers. My belief is that the fastest way to put the thugs back in charge is for the Democrats to pass a Republican style health care bill. The opposition is always a little more motivated in the midterms. And a health care reform bill with no public option will suppress the base. Another reason it is crucial to pass effective health care reform.

The OP is about the House, specifically.

Many of the casualties will be Blue Dogs, so there'll be some addition by subtraction.

OTOH, public option, Dems keep their majority. It really has come down to something that simple.

If the Democrats can pass a good health reform bill, especially one with a public option, it will demoralize the Republicans and will lift the Democrats up. I could see the Republicans actually losing seats if the Democrats can pass a public option because the right-wingers will blame their leaders for being so incompetent and weak against their Democratic opposition. Many of them would indeed sit out the election. The destiny of the Democrats is in our own hands.

In 1994 the Republican Party had been out of power for 40 years in the House of Representatives. That gave them a basis for an argument that helped them in that election. People know now how Republicans govern when they are in power and there isn't much difference in terms of spending.

Another difference is that in 1994 several southern members of Congress retired and the Democrats did not have credible candidates to replace them. In 2010 the Democrats will not have all these retirements.

Finally, the country is more diverse now and Democrats are better organized politically because of the Internet and other factors.

I wouldn't be surprised if they lose 15-20 seats. In 1978 the Democrats last 12 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate. I think this is what will happen.

Web forums throughout the country have many threads posted (by the same people no doubt) which discuss Obama disapproval numbers.

Strangely, no one seems to have info on Republican disapproval numbers.

Can anyone find me current data on those figures???

All the crap we're hearing in the media is just the plot of "Weekend at Bernie's".

You keep on believing that the rethugs are "dead". I'll keep a vigilant watch on what they do between now and then.

something drastic happens, like actually passing a great health care bill.

It's a new day and the old rules do not apply.

1. Obama's team was the first to leverage the Internet. Now the GOP will also.
2. The GOP own the media. (This might be somewhat mitigated by the Internet.)
3. The GOP uses fear and logical fallacy to sway favor.
4. The GOP will try to capitalize on any perceived "failure" by Democrats.
5. The GOP thinks long-term. Whether they are looking at the 2012 elections or beyond, it seems uncertain to me. (I think we stand to gain a few seats in 2010.)

As we saw in the Chambliss run-off, without Obama on the ticket we can't count on everybody showing up.

They have to get like 75% of the white vote in a lot of places to make up for their deficit among black and Hispanic voters. It ain't gonna happen.

It's in my gut, something bad is going to happen by one of their ginned up O'Leilly, Beck, Rush, Coultergeist, Bachman, Repuglican crazies and it's going to hurt or kill a lot of innocent people.

There is nothing the Repugs can do to derail this locomotive that they put jet fuel in.....Any possibility of hope the Rethugs think they have will be pissed away in the wind.

The crowds at all political events are becoming more dangerous everyday. It's just a matter of time before we see another Timothy McVeigh. Death Threats to the President and Democratic Congress members has increased exponentially......

This is not paranoia talking, this is an observer commenting on the current environment.

I hope that the rhetoric will get toned down and these losers will slink back into their holes but when August recess ends I expect it to ramp up even more than what we have seen.

They are in for a rough slog and will have little to show for it after squandering an impressive war chest.

they may very well romp on our librul arses, i figure

their base is more motivated right now.

1. The economy
2. Health care reform
3. M$M

On the economy, many folks, impacted by the current deep recession, are going to start running out of benefits beginning this fall, and that unfortunate population will continue to grow, all the way through 2010.

The reTHUGs will take advantage of this no matter what Obama does, however if there are enough green shots to give businesses confidence to start hiring, instead of freezing or worse laying off, then the hit won't be as hard.

--------

If they pass a watered down health care reform package that will suppress our base as well as independent voter turnout.

If they pass a strong health reform package that will help negate some of the negative effects of a continued poor employment situation.

--------

That the M$M is on the side of corporations, and therefore reTHUGs, will also have, as always, a major impact on shaping perceptions.

However, with some smart political jujitsu, and the www, perhaps that seeming advantage can be flipped around on them

I believe the reTHUGs have calculated that the only real chance they got is to exploit the negative impact of the poor employment situation and the extreme vulnerability that has generated with many Americans, yet even in that environment they know they are on shaky ground since they have no real credible arguments for taking us in a positive direction since they are to blame for where we are today, so they have decided to go EXTREME, as witnessed by the their stoking of the town hall and tea bagging exhibitions, and that is very scary.

That they have decided to go down that road makes it an extremely volatile situation that can enable dramatic course changes.

With that in mind, I do not count them out but they are way out there in the wilderness right now and hopefully they will finally learn a lesson (after a few more losses) that they need sane ideas to get back in the game instead of betting on tragedy and gimmicks to get back into power.