A hurricane Danny on track to hit from NJ to Boston in 48 hours..

Take it from someone who has been through Opel, Charley, France and Jeanne - hurricanes are no joke take them seriously.

A cat 2 hurricane hitting Manhattan would have the same flooding effect as a cat 4 hitting Miami and the bridges, tunnels, subways and power will all go down if there is a direct hit. Lower Manhattan would flood to the second story.

Worse yet, hurricanes accelerate rapidly as they move northward. Whereas we Floridians usually get several DAYS warning, a hurricane striking NYC will move from about Cape Hatteras NC to Manhattan in 6 to 12 HOURS!

The Great Hurricane of 1938 that hit Long Island and Connecticutt killed 600-800 people and nearly drowned movie actress Katherine Hepburn. That storm covered about 400 miles from North Carolina to landfall in about 6 hours. There hasn't been a major storm strike the area directly since and according to the archaelogical records, the northeast is overdue - they have struck on average every 75 years in the last 1000 years.

Likewise Boston, Long Island and Connecticut are all at great risk to such storms particularly since they so rarely have them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0509W5_NL+gif/143059W5_NL_sm.gif

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html

What's In Store For New York's Future?

According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project:


16% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in 2009. Normal value is 15%.

10% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in 2009. Normal value is 9%.

5% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in 2009. Normal value is 4%.

>99.9% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a tropical storm or hurricane in the next 50 years.

99.4% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a hurricane in the next 50 years.
90% probability that NY City/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years.

A major obstacle to overcome is public complacency. Approximately 78.5% of current New York State coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane (Hughes). One must remember that in 1938, Long Island was mostly undeveloped. The next time a major hurricane hits, it will be impacting a highly-urbanized region. The last two hurricanes were mild in comparison to the Great Hurricane of 1938. August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob (category 2) brushed the eastern tip of Long Island and moved into southeastern New England. Because most of Long Island was on the western side of the storm, winds were category 1 strength and the storm surge was minimal.
...

http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/hurricane_future.html

They are about to get hammered.

before the storm hit Long Island. I found a prettty good book on the hurricane of 1938 called 'Sudden Seas".

in that storm, and how the sifted through sand, looking for mementos..

The Maritimes are getting slammed..

there's warnings all up and down the coast. First I've heard of Danny way over here.

I see your user name I think of Babylon, LI and confused because I know you live in TX. :) I lived for several years in Seaford as a kid.

I hope your Dad stays safe. :) :hi:

and then into Canada. I did also see 2 spaghetti models that did take it right into New England

There could be definite effects along the coastline, but I hope that for the most part it is a miss along the lines of Bill.

The latest New England storms I can recall were Gloria, Bob and the unnamed Halloween Noreaster that acted like the next best thing to a hurricane. Gloria looked like it might wipe New England off the face of the map, but thankfully didn't and fizzled. Bob caused a lot of wind damage - we were without electricity for a week.

I personally knew people who had friends and family members killed during the Hurricane of 38 which was so deadly because it was a complete and total surprise.

:D

It had been downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it hit us (it made landfall around Mississippi and Alabama and cruised up the Appalachians), but I very well remember the sickly green sky and only tornado warnings I'd ever heard going off--and then hearing about a couple tornado touchdowns nearby. Scared me shitless--way more than either Bob or Gloria which both kind of fizzled when they hit New England.

But the entire east coast was in an uproar right before Gloria. I distinctly remember the guy in the Hurricane center calling it the "Storm of the Century". We lived on high ground in a field,so we felt fairly safe and we brought in relatives, friends and assorted animals. I had stockpiled food, water, games, flashlights, bedding, you name it. I was fine until I got a call from an old friend who didn't say it, but acted very much like she had called to bid me farewell (forever).

Thank God Gloria did fizzle, but when the eye went over my area, there was indeed a sickly green sky, like nothing I have ever seen before or since. The air was almost like looking through a bottle of chartreuse.

Some of my nitwittier acquaintances acted like it was the biggest letdown in the world that we weren't blown to kingdom come in Gloria.

Out by the University of Connecticut in Storrs. Days before power was restored and trees cleared off roads.

ddeclue, orlando? Yeah you had fun a few years ago. We lost power for a few days but the winds never got above a tropical storm.

I was without power for 11 days total across 3 hurricanes in 2004. Bought a generator after the first 4 days.

doing okay. She lives in a trailer.

I'm going to get some sandbags. I'm a bit worried about my basement door and the outside drain.

about is if she will go. Her ex was from Jamaica and they tend to underestimate the impact that is felt this far north.

and we have our friends from North Carolina to thank for that. With their 'ass' hanging out like that they break most of the 'canes for us.

:rofl:

I think Brevard County FL is as big as Delaware..

:D

http://www.beaumontweather.com/

It shows a lot more spaghetti models than most.

Boston baked beans.


The entire poop population of Mass eats beans for three days before the arrival of a hurricane up the east coast.

Then we all synchronize our watches and.....


well...let's just say that since 1938, no hurricane has been able to match the power of millions of Massachusetts-ites wolfing down beans


:7



Seriously, though... we are somewhat overdue for a big one.

I am on a barrier Island on the coast of NJ ..Our Island is sandwiched between the Barnegate Bay and the Atlantic ..just north of Atlantic City..got everything battened down last weekend for the storm that never came..so i won't put the stuff back..which i was going to do this afternoon!

I live half the year on the Gulf Of Mexico ..so i am used to Hurricanes..but good to be prepared..

Thanks for the heads up..i haven't watched tv ..so now i will and if bad , i will go inland..

heading away from land.

Everything you say about Hurricanes is valid, tho.
And things can always change between now and Sat.

,

Before Katrina, the NOAA had a list of the 10 most hurricane-threatened cities. New Orleans was #3. Miami, not surprisingly, was #1.

New York City was #2.

- I hope he stays a Tropical Storm and we'll welcome him as we really need the rain!

The forecast for Danny
As Danny continues to plow through the upper low, the low will weaken, but will dump dry air into the storm through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when Danny should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that Danny will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. Ocean heat content (Figure 1) is high enough to support a hurricane, until Danny gets to about New Jersey's latitude. Most of the intensity models, including the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS model, forecast that Danny will become a hurricane by Friday. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn Danny to the north, then northeast on Saturday. The models have come into better agreement keeping Danny offshore as it passes North Carolina, though the storm is certainly capable of giving the Outer Banks a direct hit. As Danny passes North Carolina, it should start heading north-northeast, with a landfall likely Saturday afternoon or evening somewhere between Massachusetts and Nova Scotia. At that time, Danny is likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane, with winds in the 55 - 80 mph range. The latest runs of the GFDL and GFS model have Danny tracking directly over Martha's Vineyard, where President Obama is on vacation. It will be interesting to see if the president stays on the island for Danny.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1294


Models at Weather Undeground

add

I am going to be on the beach on the south side of Cape Cod for a family reunion Thurs - Sun. My poor mom must be in a panic. I personally, love a good storm.

been through 4 of them myself.

was Gloria...1985? I think. Usually by the time they get up to Maine they've pooped out. Big winds, rain, nothing all that bad. But I always watch and keep an eye on them, you never know it could be the one that actually hits us hard.

Thanks for posting, this is the first I've heard of it.

Jeff Masters says this won't strengthen into anything too serious.

I agree with you though - time to wake up - another system is rolling off the African coast. Maybe my luck -Caribbean Sea - is about to run out.
We'll just have to prepare and watch. :hi:
sp

Just look at that map, right where Danny is projected to be on the 29th, right on the anniversary of Katrina making landfall....

The ocean temp by NY right now is in the low 70s.

If it does hit Long Island, yes there will be flooding and property damage but I don't see true devastation from Danny.

they may not have been major storms along the coast, but the flooding, especially from the second one dumping rain onto saturated ground, drowned Waterbury, CT, around 20 miles inland, almost NOLA-style.

as a Category 3. Although part of my town was on the water, we didn't live near the shore. Many of my neighbors lost large trees. We were pretty lucky.

My whole family sat out the storm in our basement and I thought it to be really exciting! :)

Atlantic Highlands , Sea Bright..Highlands, Sandy Hook...lots and lots of damage! I remember seeing Big Boats inland almost 1/4 of a mile!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

And Danny wasn't supposed to strengthen until Friday.

Modern forecasting is getting better about tracks, but intensity is still a dart throw...

That's why Shoreham never opened. Getting 2 million plus off a big fishy island just ain't a happening.