WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said on Friday.

Some countries are reporting that as many as 15 percent of patients infected with the new H1N1 pandemic virus need hospital care, further straining already overburdened healthcare systems, WHO said in an update on the pandemic.

"During the winter season in the southern hemisphere, several countries have viewed the need for intensive care as the greatest burden on health services," it said.

"Preparedness measures need to anticipate this increased demand on intensive care units, which could be overwhelmed by a sudden surge in the number of severe cases."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090828/hl_nm/us_flu_pandemic

Its really low isn't it?

Don

""Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections," WHO said.

"In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure. Saving these lives depends on highly specialized and demanding care in intensive care units, usually with long and costly stays.""

He asked what the mortality rate was. He didn't ask what the op said.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 9 - Preparing for the second wave: lessons from current outbreak
Preparing for the second wave: lessons from current outbreaks

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 9

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_seco...

H1N1 now the dominant virus strain

Evidence from multiple outbreak sites demonstrates that the H1N1 pandemic virus has rapidly established itself and is now the dominant influenza strain in most parts of the world...

Close monitoring of viruses by a WHO network of laboratories shows that viruses from all outbreaks remain virtually identical. Studies have detected no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form.

Viruses have a habit of doing that. It's very early in this thing. We'll have to see if it mutates into a more virulent or lethal form.

supposed to believe it when it includes highly specific info.


"Close monitoring of viruses by a WHO network of laboratories shows that viruses from all outbreaks remain virtually identical. Studies have detected no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form."

Everytime a virus story gets out you always have a poster that claims to be a well qualified professional (that has zero direct involvment with it) that disputes what the well qualified professionals who have been working with it constantly in the report say.

"Close monitoring of viruses by a WHO network of laboratories shows that viruses from all outbreaks remain virtually identical. Studies have detected no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form."


The media OP the fire med tech posted gives an entirely different impression, being vague & misleading. As I said repeatedly.

To what degree no one really knows. Hopefully it will mutate and weaken in lethality.

"viruses from all outbreaks remain virtually identical." "no signs that the virus has mutated to a more virulent or lethal form."

they genetically sequence viruses, you realize. so "to what extent no one really knows" = bullshit too.

your OP, with its bullshit headline & selectively vague reporting, gave exactly the opposite impression:

"WHO warns of severe form of swine flu

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said on Friday."

It's the *same* flu; the "going straight for the lungs" is likely due to susceptibility of the hosts, such that the virus is able to get past the normal naso-pharnyx defenses.

I know that viruses mutate frequently and that they become less lethal the majority of the time, I hope that is the case this time as well.

to the virus which caused the mexican outbreak.

They are reporting that there is a more severe version. Right up there in the OP. Meantime, the virus has been doing every damn thing that scared us about it to begin with: It began mild...but it infected all thru the summer, where traditional flu does not. It infects HEALTHY YOUNG PEOPLE instead of the very young and very old of traditional flu.

word when mexican outbreak began.

why don't you wait a bit before you start catapulting?

Which means they were right... and those of us who were worried were right too.

Perhaps you are the one who should stop, wait, and read first? Just asking.

& they (media) were *wrong*.

sole info on this supposed "new form" in the article:

"clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease"

which countries? case numbers? % deaths/case? distinguishing clinical/structural features of the "new form" & diagnostics?

since they stopped testing for the *old version* in the medically rich/advanced us, i wonder *how* these anonymous "clinicians" know this is indeed "new".

the article reports vague & basically unverifiable info. but the doomsters here are already blowing into death city & wishing karmic retribution on those who prefer to wait for hard data rather than pass on vague reports & rumors.

They always talked of the chance it would mutate.

that's a given.

I'm talking about the initial reports of massive death tolls, specific targeting of young people, etc.

it was mostly bullshit.

Because people saw no evidence themselves, and the initial figures were all that were confirmed in reported cases, they poo poo'd the whole damn thing. Now, here we are in a situation where we would all be in a much better place to deal with this potential disaster, but we were all shut up because of the "wise" few who poo poo'd the whole damn thing and tried to make everyone who was concerned feel like morans.

who jumped on the initial mistaken, overhyped reports out of mexico which stated, in the absence of solid, verified evidence, that there were a high number of deaths & high percent mortality, that the flu was more deadly to "healthy, young" people than other groups, etc.

same way you're now jumping on this contentless report as though it contained solid info.

it doesn't.

alarmists are dangerous.

Gotcha...

reportage.

but you take it for gospel. gotcha.

"severe form" refers to diagnosed virus variant or just pockets of severe cases (e.g. with multi-organ failure) as typical in stressed populations v. healthier ones.

& since there's no info about where the "severe cases" are being reported, we can't even suss out what's most likely.

but go ahead, wring you hands, stomp you feet.

more severe cases have to do with weaknesses in special populations (e.g. the poor, nutritionally deficient, etc.) or are anomalies.

That alert individuals might want to be aware of.

I don't see anyone (or hardly anyone) suggesting that the extinction of the human species is just weeks away. Drawing notice to this *possible* development is hardly being a doomster. Not everything needs to be pooh-poohed just because the full story hasn't emerged yet.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6413915&mesg_id=6413999

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=6413915&mesg_id=6414039

there's no info in the article. "some clinicians" could = ten cases.

Not WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!

Seems you are the one who is blowing things out of proportion.

diagnostics? when id'd & where?

there's no info in the media report. no solid info *at all*.

And try not being so willfully ignorant.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/h1n1_second_wave_20090828/en/index.html

"Perhaps most significantly, clinicians from around the world are reporting a very severe form of disease, also in young and otherwise healthy people, which is rarely seen during seasonal influenza infections. In these patients, the virus directly infects the lung, causing severe respiratory failure. Saving these lives depends on highly specialized and demanding care in intensive care units, usually with long and costly stays.

During the winter season in the southern hemisphere, several countries have viewed the need for intensive care as the greatest burden on health services. Some cities in these countries report that nearly 15 percent of hospitalized cases have required intensive care.

Preparedness measures need to anticipate this increased demand on intensive care units, which could be overwhelmed by a sudden surge in the number of severe cases."

Since the focus of this article was studying the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere, by context you can learn that the countries they are talking about are in the Southern Hemisphere. There are over 177 countries that have reported the H1N1 flu, do you expect them to give a detailed list of every single country they are referring to when they say "around the world"? They seem pretty good at listing when a complication is seen in only one, two, or possibly three countries. Notice they give every bit of detail on the few cases which have developed resistance to antivirals in other updates.

Or, if you'd like the more detailed information, there are plenty of charts and diagrams on their normal weekly update site.

And before you say that the Southern Hemisphere experience over their winter means nothing to us, please remember that studying the cases in the other hemisphere's winter is how we determine which strains to include in our own flu shots. This is not new science, this is very standard science which has proven for many years to be effective in predicting the flu season for the US.

... and no, I'm not scared or terrified or any of the other things you are accusing people of here. I am simply choosing to be informed on the issue instead of jumping to conclusions either way.

*percent infection & severity in young v old"? or what is meant by "directly infects the lungs".

do *you* know?

do other flus infect the skin, the blood, the eyes - what do they mean by "directly"?

is this "new" variant h1ni flu genetically different from the mexican variant?

or is it hitting poorer, weaker populations, as in the higher morbidity & death rate of the previous h1n1 in canadian aboriginals?

do *you* know?

there's no info on the who website.

in the lungs, unlike the seasonal flu which does not replicate in the lungs.

By replicating in the lungs (infecting the lungs) it can cause viral pneumonia and severe lesions in the lungs in suceptible populations.

That is not really "news," however. It was reported by researchers back in July.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090713212231.htm

flu?

yes/no is fine.

"In contrast to the seasonal influenza A H1N1 confined to the nasal cavity the pandemic influenza A/H1N1v isolates also replicated in the trachea, bronchi and bronchioles. No ferrets died from their infection."

http://ecdc.europa.eu/en/activities/sciadvice/Lists/ECDC%20Reviews/ECDC_DispForm.aspx?List=512ff74f-77d4-4ad8-b6d6-bf0f23083f30&ID=625&MasterPage=1&PDF=true

but since you don't seem willing or able to read links, here is a very brief summary:

replicating in the lungs is something that more virulent flus do.

replicating in the lungs is something the seasonal flu does not do.

So no, it is not unique specifically to this strain of H1N1. But yes, it is unique to virulent flu strains.

thus far, the virulence of this strain = ?


i read links just fine. i'm asking the questions for a reason.

to your question.

No, it is not unique to this strain of flu. It is a characteristic associated with more virulent flu strains. It gives this strain the *potential* for greater virulence.

Thus far, H1N1 virulence, as you know if you've read the links provided in this and other threads, varies by population. It is showing its capacity for virulence in certain populations.

Susceptible populations are those with compromised immune systems, children with immature immune systems that haven't had prior exposure to swine flu, pregnant women, and those with underlying health issues.

Such as the sad situation in the other current thread on swine flu, in which someone's young (20s?) friend with MS died just 2 days ago -- visited the doctor in the morning, misdiagnosed as sinus infection, sent home, returned to hospital that evening and died from collapsed lungs and heart shortly thereafter.

And the other victim in this thread, currently hospitalized and in very serious shape.

And as you likely know, every flu has varying virulence "depending on the population".


But a flu's general virulence = its virulence across all populations. & thus far, this flu's virulence is about the same as regular seasonal flu.


"compromised immune systems, children with immature immune systems that haven't had prior exposure to swine flu, pregnant women, and those with underlying health issues."

= the same populations are at higher risk from *all* flus.

you already know all the answers. ;)

I don't believe anybody has disputed the point that *so far* this flu's virulence is about the same as seasonal flu.

However, it's ability to directly infect the lungs gives it potential for virulence that the seasonal flu doesn't have.

That, and the fact that it spreads easily, and the fact that the majority of the world's population doesn't have any immunity to it, is probably why WHO, the CDC and other organizations are tracking it so carefully and why the push to have a vaccine ready.

stances, one of those circumstances being the susceptibility of the host.

it's not that the ability to "replicate in the lungs" necessarily = a more virulent virus. it's that if the virus DOES "replicate in the lungs", the course of illness will be more severe. because then you have infection in the lungs.

as is demonstrated by this virus, which in most people causes only mild illness & doesn't go "directly to the lungs," but in SOME people causes severe illness & DOES enter the lungs.

why it hits SOME people harder, based on the evidence i've seen so far, is because they have poor immune response for various reasons.

because I don't believe that is true.

In fact, the researcher at the link I provided, which you claim to have read, states clearly that the seasonal flu does not replicate in the lungs.

And reveals winning Powerball numbers. Somewhat less than ten, perhaps.

Cautious observation is called for here... not the verbal slamming of the wisely cautious.

has remained at %0.5.

That said, it should be remembered that lots of cases are so mild as to not be diagnosed or confirmed. (so the actual death rate might be substantially lower)

It's not that different from other flu viruses (SO FAR, a mutation is a potential game changer), however, it seems to strike people who are in the prime of life and have healthy immune systems with more frequency than either the very young or the very old. It is thought that this is a result of a natural immunity for those born before 1954 due to exposure of an identical (or extremely similar) virus in the years prior to 1954. That's just a theory at present.

However, given the virulence of the H1N1 outbreak, a prediction of 50,000 death or more (due just to this virus) isn't out of the question. The big difference will be WHO dies (when compared to "normal" flu season). It's not "news" when a 78 year old in a retirement home dies of the flu some winter, but when the 35 year old guy in the office next to you dies... well, people tend to pay more attention to that.

When I tried to get people to pay attention to this when it first came to be, and the WHO was warning that this was what they expected. A few "wise" DUers looked at statistics and decided those of us who were concerned were worthy of kicking.

I sincerely hope their Karmic retribution is lighter than this flu.

...also seem to be the most skeptical of government claims about our health and disease. The contradiction is a bit humorous.

I never put those two things together. You're absolutely correct.

I was called every name in the book, and many tried to make us all feel like morans for being concerned.

Where here we are... I take no pride in being correct the first time... sometimes it just doesn't pay to be right.

We would have all been a lot more prepared for this if these alleged "wise" people had just stfu.

And you think you deserve better information than they are giving.

:eyes:

I think that presuming the swine flu is "all hype" is bizarre and paranoic. Just because something IS reported loudly in the media doesn't make it NOT TRUE. :crazy:

Likewise, I think it's good to be concerned about quickly produced vaccines made by for-profit corporations: particularly considering our relationship with vaccines (see Vaccine A and military experimentation.) That being said, I don't think it's a bad idea to get vaccinated if the flu gets worse. It's what's called a calculated risk.

In the end, I think thinking people are crazy for being worried about a virus is crazier than being worried about a virus. And anyone who thinks that we've entered the wonderful "end of history" phase of capitalism where "all problems are eternally resolved" is nuts.

I am continually perplexed by those who think drastic shifts in human existence are *impossible* just because one hasn't happened in a hundred years or so. Totally bizarre to me.

thus, you'll probably win.

In particular, the posts of people who disagree with you. No one is saying its all hype, or that it's crazy to be worried, or that "drastic shifts in human existence are *impossible*".

What a few people with a bit of perspective are saying is that there is no hard evidence thus far of this disease mutating into a more serious form, and certainly none whatsoever of it posing a risk to human existence as we know it- and so to claim these events as likely or indeed inevitable on the basis of media-spun anecdotal evidence is not sensible caution, but reckless, irresponsible panic-mongering that, whatever course this disease takes, will do no-one any good whatsoever.

You seem to be saying that supporting a government program means you have to uncritically accept everything any governmental agency says in relation to the subject with which that program deals.

Your grasp of teabagger thinking is apparently excellent. Your grasp of irony, less so.

We really need an educated populist.

and has for the last 2 weeks with Type A, that quickly became H1N1, that morphed into viral pneumonia in 48 hours. We didn't know all that for a few days as they have to culture the samples taken. He has been in a drug-induced coma to better fight it. He is on a pronated bed to rotate his body at intervals to keep the organs away from the lungs and to facilitate the fluids being sucked out.

He is 57, doesn't smoke, drinks a glass of wine per week or so, eats organic, goes to the gym, not usually ever sick.

He told me before he went under that he had never felt that sick so quick in his whole life.

Pray for my friend, as it is one day good, one day bad, rinse, repeat. He remains unconscious, intubated, receives dialysis daily as the infection has caused his organs to start to shut down. If he survives it will be a long rehab process as well, hopefully without lasting damage to lungs and kidneys. He is very lucky as he has a good job with a good PPO insurance plan. He is getting the very best treatment possible. Still it is touch and go.

I'm convinced after being skeptical at first. This is one mean MoFo and it is hitting healthy, middle-aged people the hardest. Please don't pooh-pooh this very real risk. I hope no one here gets it, but I know come winter, they will. This is real. Let's hope as many people as possible get the vaccine, that our society's obsession with hygiene will limit its spread throughout the population. More immportantly, we need universal healthcare so that those with it are treated properly.

I will get the vaccine as soon as it is available. I was exposed to him on 2 succeeding days before he went to the hosptital with a 103 fever.


Just my dos centavos

robdogbucky

All my best wishes for your friend's recovery.

The more severe form of the disease is that in certain populations (immune-compromised, underlying health issues, immature immune system, etc.) the virus starts in the upper respiratory tract, but quickly moves to and infects the lungs / lower respiratory tract.

In most populations, the immune system fights off the virus and prevents it from infecting the lungs. The disease is contained in the upper respiratory tract.

It is the same strain of virus -- the illness progresses to a different arena.

They don't know if it is a substrain or something else that makes it sometimes invade the lungs and then the mortality rate is very high w/o treatment - after all intensive care on a respirator for weeks is not a cakewalk

And that kills tens of thousands every year.

Is the vaccine that people have been busily trying to develop, and which is based on the initial (pretty mild) strain of Novel H1N1, likely to provide even partial immunity to what this report suggests will be a much more lethal variant? Or will it be entirely useless?

on a lot of factors. The vaccine hasn't been tested (I've heard of one trial of 600 individuals).

And the great danger is that the virus mutates (which, as it passes from human to human, is more likely with each infection). If the mutation changes the genetic makeup significantly, the vaccine now in development would prove useless. Couple that mutation with another that increases morbidity in the victims and we have a 1918 style pandemic, complete with worldwide spread (of the mutation) due to our ability to travel quickly.

But, knock on wood, it hasn't happened yet.

enough.

if there are none, the sample population is too small for a valid trial.

"A number of clinical trials were designed and have begun to ask fundamental questions that would inform how we would use the virus, the proper dose, some early safety data as well as the use of the vaccine in certain populations," Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during an afternoon press conference.

There are five trials, Fauci said. One trial, which started in early August, is designed to determine the most effective dose of the vaccine and whether one or two doses will be needed. "We expect first-dose data in mid-September and second-doses data in mid-October," he said.

Early results for this first trial among adults have found the vaccine to be safe with no serious side effects, he added.

http://health.usnews.com/articles/health/healthday/2009/08/21/swine-flu-vaccine-seems-safe-in-early-trials.html

Minor side effects are nothing but slight discomfort and inconvenience. Serious side effects should be the focus.

be: you said "no side effects".

If you read the WHO report, you will see that the virus is more lethal in certain populations -- generally people with underlying health issues. But it is not a more lethal strain -- it is the same strain that people with compromised immune systems can't deal with.

If the virus mutates by antigenic drift (slight changes to the antigens) then there will still be immunity. If it mutates by antigenic shift (major changes) then there will be less immunity conferred. But that is highly unlikely at this point...antigenic shift happens rarely. If I understand correctly, this H1N1 represents an antigenic shift from the earlier strains, and yet there is still some residual immunity.

What happens is that the antigens (proteins and other molecules that inhabit the viral membrane) mutate to new forms over time. As long as there are still some original antigens present, then the antibodies produced in response to the vaccine will recognize and bind to the virus. If too many of the original antigens change, then it reaches a point where the antibodies no longer have any recognizable antigen to bind to.

mild first wave, followed by a deadly mutation.

:eyes:

Historian Alfred W. Crosby observed that the flu seems to have originated in Kansas.<30> Political scientist Andrew Price-Smith published data from the Austrian archives suggesting that the influenza had earlier origins, beginning in Austria in the spring of 1917.<31> Popular writer John Barry echoed Crosby in proposing that Haskell County, Kansas was the location of the first outbreak of flu.<32> In the United States the disease was first observed at Fort Riley, Kansas, United States, on March 4, 1918,<33> and Queens, New York, on March 11, 1918. In August 1918, a more virulent strain appeared simultaneously in Brest, France, in Freetown, Sierra Leone, and in the U.S. at Boston, Massachusetts. The Allies of World War I came to call it the Spanish flu, primarily because the pandemic received greater press attention after it moved from France to Spain in November 1918. Spain was not involved in the war and had not imposed wartime censorship.<34>


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic

morbidity/mortality toll in various locations.

2) how was it determined the outbreak in france, sierra leone, etc. was "a more virulent strain" than the supposed initial outbreak in kansas? do you know?

But, it ain't 1918, this virus is entirely different, and the human population's resistance to pandemic infections is not comparable to 1918.

So we could be looking at nothing at all, or 99% morbidity, or something in between. And that's about as exact as it gets.

have antibodies to this virus.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090713212231.htm

We won't know for sure until it really starts to hit.

disappeared & came back in a mutated, more virulent form = hooey.

abnormally invasive for lungs in some cases. I ended up in an ambulance to the ER with some strange systemic symptoms I never had with regular flu - bronchitis lasted for weeks with severe constant cough.

What are the signs and symptoms of this virus in people?

The symptoms of novel H1N1 flu virus in people include fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue. A significant number of people who have been infected with this virus also have reported diarrhea and vomiting. Severe illnesses and death has occurred as a result of illness associated with this virus.


http://www.cdc.gov/H1N1flu/qa.htm

I hadn't had bronchitis for 20 years until this year.

fully gone away and it's been almost two months. July 3, I felt fine. July Fourth morning, felt fine. July Fourth evening, was lying on the couch hacking and coughing, felt like absolute utter crap for a full week. It didn't start in my head and throat, like usual. Weird--I wonder, now.

:hide:

A couple of weeks ago, I was in a restroom in a MEDICAL OFFICE with many doctors, and there was NO SOAP in the restroom!

#(^*($*^@($#*_*&^%%&#()@(*!!!!!!!!

:wtf:

That said, whatever happened to the global chicken uprising they were blathering on about a couple of years ago?

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm

Assessment of Current Situation

The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) epizootic (animal outbreak) in Asia, Europe, the Near East, and Africa is not expected to diminish significantly in the short term. It is likely that H5N1 virus infections among domestic poultry have become endemic in certain areas and that sporadic human infections resulting from direct contact with infected poultry and/or wild birds will continue to occur. So far, the spread of H5N1 virus from person-to-person has been very rare, limited and unsustained. However, this epizootic continues to pose an important public health threat.

There is little pre-existing natural immunity to H5N1 virus infection in the human population. If H5N1 viruses gain the ability for efficient and sustained transmission among humans, an influenza pandemic could result, with potentially high rates of illness and death worldwide. No evidence for genetic reassortment between human and avian influenza A virus genes has been found to date, and there is no evidence of any significant changes to circulating H5N1 virus strains to suggest greater transmissibility to or among humans. Genetic sequencing of avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses from human cases in Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia shows resistance to the antiviral medications amantadine and rimantadine, two of the medications commonly used for treatment of influenza. This leaves two remaining antiviral medications (oseltamivir and zanamivir) that should still be effective against currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses. A small number of oseltamivir resistant H5N1 virus infections of humans have been reported. Efforts to produce pre-pandemic vaccine candidates for humans that would be effective against avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses are ongoing. However, no H5N1 vaccines are currently available for human use.

Research suggests that currently circulating strains of H5N1 viruses are becoming more capable of causing disease (pathogenic) in animals than were earlier H5N1 viruses. One study found that ducks infected with H5N1 virus are now shedding more virus for longer periods without showing symptoms of illness. This finding has implications for the role of ducks in transmitting disease to other birds and possibly to humans as well. Additionally, other findings have documented H5N1 virus infection among pigs in China and Vietnam; H5N1 virus infection of cats (experimental infection of housecats in the Netherlands, isolation of H5N1 virus from domestic cats in Germany and Thailand, and detection of H5N1 viral RNA in domestic cats in Iraq and Austria); H5N1 virus infection of dogs (isolation of H5N1 virus from a domestic dog in Thailand); and isolation of H5N1 viruses from tigers and leopards at zoos in Thailand). In addition, H5N1 virus infection in a wild stone marten (a weasel-like mammal) was reported in Germany and in a wild civet cat in Vietnam. Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus strains that emerged in Asia in 2003 continue to evolve and may adapt so that other mammals may be susceptible to infection as well.

-snip-

most in the hospital don't wash their hands as they are supposed to.....and don't like to wear gloves.

Yes, I'm sure you have some stories to tell.


I hope someday that you do.

This is beyond insane!

http://www.azcentral.com/12news/news/articles/2009/08/29/20090829flurestrictions0829-CP.html

The number of confirmed H1N1 flu cases in Arizona tripled over the past week after a dip earlier this month.

Concern that cases will keep rising rapidly is causing some hospitals to ban children from patient rooms or all areas as a precaution against spread of the virus. Still, the number of weekly flu cases is nowhere near what it was earlier this year, when more than 300 cases were reported during a single week in early May. Also, many schools have not reported any cases during the first few weeks of classes.

"It's definitely a jump, but it's not consistent enough to say it's a pattern," said Laura Oxley, a spokeswoman for the Arizona Department of Health Services.

The state has confirmed 1,157 cases and 20 deaths since the H1N1 virus was identified earlier this year. Maricopa County health officials have warned that as many as one in four Arizona residents will fall ill from influenza this fall. Local health experts have been encouraging parents and employers to develop contingency plans in case they, their family members or workers fall ill.

Most flu cases during the summer have involved the H1N1 virus. That virus, added to the seasonal flu strain, is expected to push up total flu cases in the coming season..."




http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/7644


"With the usual lack of reverence for life when dealing with the living, right wing hysteria directed against health care threatens our entire population, especially the young. On the verge of a flu epidemic that attacks the youth most viciously, the right wingers in town hall meetings are fighting frantically to beat back the health care we need.

The question of costs, most vocal in the teabagging population, is an artificial one. The other nations of the industrialized world have much better health, while the U.S. leads in infant mortality and general decrepitude of our population. The threat that the right wing sees to our youth is one of the pocketbook, obscuring the very real threat of illness and death from, for example, the flu epidemic that is imminent...

Outbreaks among sports teams who came together in preseason are already sweeping the continent, and games are being canceled. This week saw the general student population gather, with outbreaks in that population already underway. There is no capacity to handle the situation, and no health care system ready for it. In 18% of hospitals, registered nurses report that other nurses have become infected, and one California nurse has already died from H1N1 flu.

With a situation as dire as this one promises to become, what is our right wing doing? The extremists are fighting against health care under the flimsiest of excuses, most vociferously because of the threat of 'takeover by government' of a health care system that at the moment is dominated by profit at the expense of actual care..."

next to last week of august & 54 the last week?

really?

do you have comparison data for seasonal flu in the state for several years & know the variability of flu season there?

i don't, but that's the data you need to know what the numbers you report *mean*.


http://www.azdhs.gov/flu/

"Every year in the Arizona, on average:

5% (*325,000) to 20% (*1,300,000) of the population gets the flu;"

(= average 27,080-100,000 cases/mo, but concentrated in flu season)

"more than 4,000 people are hospitalized from flu complications, and;

about 700 people die from flu."

Flu vaccination is recommended in october or november, & peak cases = january.

So normal flu season variability = approx oct-may.

so an uptick from 17 to 54 confirmed cases at the beginning of september doesn't seem particularly astonishing to me, especially since there was a downtick a few weeks ago; no consistent pattern.




People who should get vaccinated each year are:

1. People at high risk for complications from the flu, including:

Children aged 6 months through 18 years ,
Pregnant women,
People 50 years of age and older,
People of any age with certain chronic medical conditions, and
People who live in nursing homes and other long term care facilities.

This has been known for some time now...

There is push back from some in the public health community on how this has been handled...

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/SwineFluNews/story?id=8438883

Mortality is at or somewhat less than seasonal flu...

Obviously cannot be taken lightly, but this apparent need to ratchet up the worry level from time to time seems somewhat unnecessary...

Do I get a TV show for saying stuff like this?