Are we really going to lose 20 to 50 house seats???why would

this be...how could this country go so right wing...we must work very hard to see this doesn't happen..I cannot see how people are buying this right wing stuff....

We will gain a few so don't worry.

the Rs gain would be big but nobody predicted quite how big it would be. Cook came clost though.

I was heavily into politics around that time and just about every moment of the first two years of Clinton's first term ended up being a mess because of Gingrich and his "bomb throwers" in Congress, the "Dittoheads", the fundies, and other assorted wingnuts, not to mention the "Blue Dog" Dems undermining him and fighting him tooth and nail at every turn.
Plus, the Republicans were nowhere as near as unpopular then as they are now, particularly since they hadn't been in power for a long time and people seemed willing to give them a chance to run Congress. Just about all of the news outlets, polls, etc. predicted a disaster for the Democrats in the 1994 mid-term election and, with very few exceptions, they turned out to be pretty accurate. I kept hoping and praying that they would be wrong but, unfortunately, they weren't. It was a bloodbath for the Dems and it was FAR from unexpected from what I can remember.
I don't see a similar dynamic playing itself next year absent some massive scandal or catastrophe, particularly if Dems get a good HCR bill through Congress and to President Obama's desk.

Add to that, most people weren't on the internet, there was no Keith, no Rachel, nothing to fight back against the rightwing smear machine echo chamber.

AND, the Big Dawg didn't win the White House with a MAJORITY of voters, Obama did.

the only way we lose a bunch is if the Dems allow the health care debate to go on and on and then do not pass anything. That's what sank them in 1994. As long as they pass something this year they have all 2010 to steer the political agenda and debate to whatever they want it to be.

BUT..
midterm elections are notoriously ho-hum, and if enough lefties are mad, they will stay home, leaving the revved up, birthers & the like to stack up more votes for their loonies:(

how energetic our so-called Dem. Party will be.
I find them to be very very quiet..
too quiet..
awfully quiet
terribly quiet.

But, DUers don't like to hear that.

:shrug: The power is in your hands, isn't it?

When the fucking blue dogs are selling out the party and the country, blame the left for calling them on it.

I guarantee you, come the mid terms it will be the lefties that are at the polls - and the discouraged dems will be the fence sitters who are are buying the blue-dog line.

lost - maybe the professional bribe takers politicians need to be reminded that they are there to represent the People, not the stockholders

the house by and large is ready to vote for a strong health care plan. It's the senate where we have problems.

the average loss of the party in power in the first midterm election of a presidents term is about 20 seats, I believe.

Even Dr. Doom sees the job outlook vastly improved by the 2010 elections.

the lose of 50 seat might be the rosy picture. It's the economy stupid as the saying goes.

don't understand how midterm elections work. The party in power usually always loses seats and if the economy is down still in November, 2010 it is likely we will lose seats. I don't think it will change who controls the House or senate, however.

...these are not normal times. If the midterms become an unofficial mandate on healthcare then the GOP could get slaughtered. That is not even considering their instrumental role in the near destruction of the US banking system and the economy combined with their subsequent opposition to everything the Dems have done and will continue to do to fix it!

I think the Dems could very well destroy the GOP in 2010 if they play their cards right. The GOP knows this which is why they are so desperate and pretty much playing the fear card non-stop with their blatant lies.

If you listen to the media too much, it will affect your mental health. The RIGHT is going to lose more seats, it is going to get worse for them. NO ONE in this country is fooled by the obvious facts that George Bush and Dick Cheney lied to EVERYONE and destroyed HUGE amounts of the federal infrastructure for a decade of abuse and neglect. NO ONE can deny it, it sits as proof today in our shame as a country based on law.

I don't know a single person in South Texas that likes George or Dick, and they all voted Repuke in 2004. Nowadays they ALL stay way from politics, won't even go vote out of disgust - probably a lot of self loathing IMO.

No, any polly anna who wants to believe we are doomed can. But the GOP still has a few more seconds left to embarrass the conservative base. Don't worry, Dems can't look even close to as shitty as Repukes will look over the next 50 years.

Don't take my work for it, just look at Sarah Palin.

that we get another record turnout and sweep the Republicans out almost completely. I don't like to see people here who seem resigned to losing congressional seats because the Republicans are saying it will be so.
Don't get scared and fold - get mad and fucking VOTE!!!!!!

I don't care if you hate the centerists or whoever - vote for every Democrat and complain or try to influence them when they are in office.

How about if there were only 20 or so Republicans in Congress?

Only Registered, Voting Democrats can make it so!!!!!


mark

First of all a lot of the polls are biased. There is a definite reich wing agenda going on here to try get moral up by (gasp) lying. If you look at the more credible polls you are seeing the dem base being frustrated by how slow the change is coming but that is all. The vast majority would never ever consider voting for a Republikkkan. These opinions the GOP is spewing assumes they will which just shows how dillusional they are.

welcome to DU :hi:

I mean, I know how some would prefer to ignore that obvious fact. However...I suspect many "election" results are actually a piece of the broader propaganda used to, say, as polls often do, guide the course of the public mind rather than being reflective of it.

Take my dilemma for example. Harry Reid is up for re-election this time around. I have a choice , vote for him and continue allow him to serve as majority leader a position he has failed at miserably in my opinion or I can vote for a republican just to get him removed from the leadership position.

If he were not majority leader i would likely be content to let him sit where he is as he is good at bringing money home to Nevada. However I care for the entire country as well and while i don't think a republican would represent me better than even mild mannered harry. I do think the damage potential would be greatly reduced.

As the election draws closer this is something that is distressing me more and more.

off years. When you look at coded voter lists you see that Rs tend to be much more regular voters. Older voters are more reliable voters than younger voters. A higher percentage of the older voters are Republican or swing voters. Swing voters often vote for the party out of power in off year elections.

Without a major issue impacting behaviors, the majority party can expect to lose 15-20 seats. When you manage a congressional re-election campaign in an off year, you pray for hot local issues to get your voters out. You do things like work with your state labor council to launch a ballot measure to raise your stat's minimum wage.

While there are some variations to the pattern, the general rule is that the party holding the white house loses house seats in mid term elections. Over the past 70 plus years, that has happened 16 out of 18 times.

Look at the historical for the last 70 plus years.

1936 -FDR re-elected; Democrats gain seats
1938- Democrats lose 72 House seats
1940 -FDR re-elected, Democrats gain seats
1942 - Democrats lose 45 House seats
1944 - FDR re-elected, Democrats gain seats
1946 - Democrats lose 55 House seats
1948 - Truman elected, Democrats gain seats
1950 - Democrats lose 28 seats
1952 - Eisenhower elected, repubs gain seats
1954 - Repubs lose 19 seats
1956 - Eisenhower re-elected, repubs lose 2 seats
1958 - Repubs lose 49 seats
1960 - JFK elected; Democrats lose 20 seats
1962 - Democrats lose an additional 4 seats
1964 - LBJ elected, Democrats win seats
1966 - Democrats lose 48 seats
1968 - Nixon elected, repubs gain seats
1970 - repubs lose 12 seats
1972 - Nixon reelected, repubs gain seats
1974 - repubs lose 49 seats
1976 - Carter elected. Democrats gain 1 seat
1978 - Democrats lose 15 seats
1980 - Reagan elected, repubs gain seats
1982 = Repubs lose 27 seats
1984 - Reagan re-elected, repubs gain seats
1986 - Repubs lose seats
1988- Bush I elected, Repubs lose 2 seats
1990 - Repubs lose 8 more seats
1992 Clinton elected, Democrats lose 9 seats
1994 - Democrats lose 54
1996 - Clinton reelected, Democrats gain 8 seats
1998 - Repubs lose 5 seats
2000 - Bush 2 elected, Repubs lose 2
2002 - Repubs gain 8
2004 Bush reelected, repubs gain 3
2006 repubs lose 30

Having said that, whether the Democrat lose 10 seats, 20 seats or 30 seats will depend on a lot of things that haven't happened yet. The state of the economy will have a lot to do with it. I don't see the Democrats losing their majority unless something quite unexpected occurs.

I dont think it's rational for anyone to pretend they think they know what will happen next year.

the media keeps saying something over and over again and some believe it because they say it. They keep saying that this country is a rightwing or leaning right as though it were really true.

Some of those who claim to be conservative are more liberal in there day to day lives than some who are posted as super liberal by the rightwing.

THey also say over and over that Pres Obama needs to explain more or break it down and I have seen him explain it over and over as he did throughout the campaign and at his townhall meetings.

The media kept telling lies as they are doing now and some who haven't been watching these liars throughout the campaign are now seeing what we have been dealing with.

The thing we have to do is keep knocking it down and let them know we don't agree with the bull they keep spouting we need to spread the real info.

That is why they are so desperate and playing the fear card so heavily with their lies. If (and this is a big if) the Dems play their cards right we could get more primaries to get more progressives in there, get rid of a few of the blue dogs, and slaughter the GOP! Ultimately moving the country further to the left which EVERY credible poll and all the demographics show is inevitable. The reich wing is terrified of this and getting more and more desperate. THAT is what is really happening and the few sane intelligent Republikkkans out there KNOW IT!

Case in point, Gramps McCain in one of his few moments of truth and clarity said that the GOP is in serious trouble because they don't have the hispanic vote and hispanics are the fasted growing more important demographic moving forward!

Most Americans get their impressions and knowledge of what is
going on politically from TV.

Democrats for whatever reason CHOOSE NOT TO GO ON TV to passionately
give the Democratic Position on Issues. You would think there
are no Dems in DC. You could believe the GOP is still in charge.

To the average Joe and Jane, this leaves the impression the
Democratic Party is out to Lunch.

They have permitted the Republicans to define and describe
what is in the Health Insurance Reform. As a result, the GOP
have been able to spread all kinds of lies and misinformation.
Now the public is believing more and more of it.

The Democrats on the Hill apparently do not want confrontation.
Joe and Jane Sixpack are very culturally confrontational.
They see people who avoid confrontation as wimps. No Democrat
has done anything to convince them otherwise.

Let us hope the party gets a handle and a spine, otherwise
they will lose seats.

I don't think TV was much of a factor in 1938 when the Democrats lost 72 seats in the mid term elections or in 1942 when we lost 45 or in 1946 when we lost 55. I doubt it was much of a factor in 1950 when we lost 28 or in 1954 and 1958 when the repubs lost 19 and 49 seats respectively.

For decades it has been a fairly consistent pattern that the party holding the WH loses seats in the mid term elections. Sure there are a couple of exceptions, but I think its around 16 of 18 times in the past 70 years.

and there are enough dumbasses out there repeating this mantra over and over again.

I haven't looked at the results of all elections but it appears that historically the party in power loses seats in the midterm election. That isn't scientific or conclusive but seems to be very common.

I think we can minimize our losses if we actually behave like the party in power by delivering on the promises. We need to deliver significant and meaningful health care reform. We need to deliver on a sane and sustainable energy policy. We need to deliver on an effective environmental and climate change policy.

We control the House by a significant margin, the Senate with a 59 seat majority in the caucus (hoping Massachussetts moves quickly to change the law to give Duval Patrick the power to appoint an interim Senator subject to the special election in January) and the White House with a very popular President.

If we can't enact legislation that addresses issues of major concern to the nation then we deserve to lose seats in the midterm. At some point we have to decide as a party if we want to be a majority party that can be proud of its legacy or the party of wimps that are afraid of their shadows.

"I'm telling you no matter how low they drive support for this with misinformation, the minute the president signs a health care reform bill his approval will go up. Secondly, within a year, when all those bad things they say will happen don't happen, and all the good things happen, approval will explode". - Facts From The Big Dog - Former President Bill Clinton

The republicans know this and is one of many reasons why they will never vote for any health care plan and will do all they can to stop one from being passed...So Dems, it might as well have a strong public option...Fuck the republicans!