Joe Wilson Election: Chances Damaged By Outburst

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Rep. Joe Wilson may have shouted his way into the toughest election fight of his life.

Just ask former Sen. George Allen of Virginia, a conservative darling who suffered a surprise defeat in 2006 after calling an Indian-American campaign worker "macaca" – an ethnic slur in some countries. Or Rep. Cynthia McKinney of Georgia, who was tossed out of office the same year after striking a police officer who tried to make her show identification before entering the Capitol complex.

Voters often frown on rude conduct, and Democrats would like nothing more to have Wilson's scalp in 2010 – not just to win another seat, but to hold up the victory as evidence that even the conservative South rejects the town-hall style vitriol that President Barack Obama is facing.
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His victory last November with 54 percent of the vote over first-time Democratic candidate Rob Miller raised red flags. While the 8 percentage-point margin over Miller was still significant in an unusually pro-Democratic election environment, Wilson's tally was far weaker than the 60 percent to 70 percent showings that Republicans routinely post in the South. And Wilson's election results over the last four cycles show a consistent downward trend, from 84 percent in 2002 to 63 percent in 2006 and a low point last year.

His district stretches from Columbia, near the center of the state, toward the coast, enveloping Hilton Head Island and Beaufort – areas densely populated with northern retirees. It encompasses wide economic contrasts. Allendale County traditionally registers the state's top jobless rate – 21.8 percent in August – while Lexington and Beaufort counties are among the most affluent.

It is also home to large military installations such as the Army's Fort Jackson and the Marine Corps' Parris Island Training Depot.

Some statewide Democratic candidates have carried the district in recent years, but it hasn't been represented by a Democrat in Congress since 1965.

Wilson's likely 2010 opponent will again be Miller, a former Marine captain who served two tours in Iraq and resigned his commission to run last cycle.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/20/joe-wilson-election-chanc_n_292650.html

This is going to be very, very ugly. Wilson also raised a great deal of money.

Miller has the chops to win, and there are enough voters that will side with him. It's a matter of message and turnout.

deoend on turnout! I have never missed a vote in my lifetime. I only wish lots of others could say the same.

The migration of northern retirees into his district is part of the reason why he has claimed a steadily declining percentage of the vote in each of the last three elections. That segment of the populations was really turned off by his "rebel yell". This group should be described as swing and a former Marine running as a pro-defense, fiscal conservative "gentleman" could capture a significantly greater share of their votes next year (he already earned a plurality in that part of the district in 2008).

is unique in that it is BOTH an historical event, AND a trivial distraction. Let's hope that years from now, he will be seen as a minor footnote to history, and that Dems will be remembered to have risen above. C'mon decent people of South Carolina!