Revised: My head count on a public option bill on reconciliation (we still have the votes)

We have 60 Democrats, and I assume a new senator from Massachusetts who is pro-public option.

So, in a reconciliation vote, I see the following Democrats voting no, along with all Republicans:

Conrad
Lieberman
Landrieu: Forget her. She's a lost cause.
Lincoln: Won't switch unless Wal-Mart comes out in favor of a PO.
Nelson (NE): Forget it.
Byrd: supports public option as policy, but not folding it into the reconciliation process; he cares more about parliamentary niceties than doing what is right for the American people.

So that's 6 off the boat.

Possible or Likely NO votes (depends on the political winds in their states and the specifics of the public option bill)

Nelson (FL): Voted for Schumer's amendment today, but not Rockefeller's amendment (FL)
Pryor: I don't trust him.
Baucus: seems ideologically OK with a PO, but in his capacity as committee chair he seems obsessed with bipartisanship and scotching the public option. As a regular senator on the floor, though, his vote could be up for grabs.
Carper: For whatever reason, seems shaky. He supported Schumer's amendment though

So that's 10, unless there is some other turncoat that I am unaware of. And that all assumes, of course, that the senators in the second category ALL vote NO. We could still win a couple of them in the end. A 50-50 tie would require bringing Joe Biden back to his old office to do the final deed.

http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_fifty_vote_senate

How do you propose an assurance that there will be 51 votes when the time arrives for final passage?