Juan Cole: Top Things you Think You Know about Iran that are not True

Top Things you Think You Know about Iran that are not True

Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its neighbors or the US

Reality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war modern history (unlike the US or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of "no first strike." This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guards commanders.

Belief: Iran is a militarized society bristling with dangerous weapons and a growing threat to world peace.

Reality: Iran's military budget is a little over $6 billion annually. Sweden, Singapore and Greece all have larger military budgets. Moreover, Iran is a country of 70 million, so that its per capita spending on defense is tiny compared to these others, since they are much smaller countries with regard to population. Iran spends less per capita on its military than any other country in the Persian Gulf region with the exception of the United Arab Emirates.

Belief: Iran has threatened to attack Israel militarily and to "wipe it off the map."

Reality: No Iranian leader in the executive has threatened an aggressive act of war on Israel, since this would contradict the doctrine of 'no first strike' to which the country has adhered. The Iranian president has explicitly said that Iran is not a threat to any country, including Israel.

Belief: But didn't President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threaten to 'wipe Israel off the map?'

Reality: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did quote Ayatollah Khomeini to the effect that "this Occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time" (in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-e ruzgar mahv shavad). This was not a pledge to roll tanks and invade or to launch missiles, however. It is the expression of a hope that the regime will collapse, just as the Soviet Union did. It is not a threat to kill anyone at all.

Belief: But aren't Iranians Holocaust deniers?

Actuality: Some are, some aren't. Former president Mohammad Khatami has castigated Ahmadinejad for questioning the full extent of the Holocaust, which he called "the crime of Nazism." Many educated Iranians in the regime are perfectly aware of the horrors of the Holocaust. In any case, despite what propagandists imply, neither Holocaust denial (as wicked as that is) nor calling Israel names is the same thing as pledging to attack it militarily.

Belief: Iran is like North Korea in having an active nuclear weapons program, and is the same sort of threat to the world.

Actuality: Iran has a nuclear enrichment site at Natanz near Isfahan where it says it is trying to produce fuel for future civilian nuclear reactors to generate electricity. All Iranian leaders deny that this site is for weapons production, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly inspected it and found no weapons program. Iran is not being completely transparent, generating some doubts, but all the evidence the IAEA and the CIA can gather points to there not being a weapons program. The 2007 National Intelligence Estimate by 16 US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency, assessed with fair confidence that Iran has no nuclear weapons research program.

I should be more careful, as so often in the past I've been caught passing off my own writings as Professor Cole's ;)

I think Cole's point is that whether your theology is Islam or Iranophobia, it makes bad policy.

Tehran, Oct 26 - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday called for Israel to be "wiped off the map".

"The establishment of the Zionist regime was a move by the world oppressor against the Islamic world," the President told a conference in Tehran entitled 'the world without Zionism'.

"The skirmishes in the occupied land are part of a war of destiny. The outcome of hundreds of years of war will be defined in Palestinian land," he said.

"As the Imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map," said Ahmadinejad, referring to the late founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Imam Khomeini.

http://web.archive.org/web/20070927213903/http://www.iribnews.ir/Full_en.asp?news_id=200247

The OP that you're actually replying to debunks the frequent misquote. The actual quote is just as ill-willed, but one hell of a lot less pro-active. Iran is trouble, but it's not the bogeyman the neocons and Likud warmongers make it out to be.

It was quoted that way by the Iranian government news outlet.

If you look at the statement word for word, it does not literally translate into "wiped off the map" however clearly a euphemism was used that the Iranians themselves thought best translated into "wiped off the map".

There is still dispute about the best way to translate his words into English.

If you are interest in reading more about that discussion, have a look at this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/weekinreview/11bronner.html?_r=1

is not a threat - "you must be beaten up after school" is not the same as "I'm going to beat you up after school." The statement was not "Israel must be wiped of the map by Iran."

That would make sense if the speaker (ie the Iranian President) believes that a nation-state where members of a particular religious/ethnic group have invaded and dispossesed the majority, and have privileged status over non-members, should be changed to a society where members of all religions and ethnic groups have equal rights, or where members of HIS religious group have more rights.

The Iranian President believes that, because Israel is a nation where, as a core foundational aspect, Jews lord it over everybody else (Christians, Muslims, Hindus, atheists, etc), it really doesn't have the right to exist as it exists today. He believes Israel exists because Jews have power, and nothing else sustains it. But he believes it doesn't exist because it has the moral right to do so.

Thus, in his logic, if it were to change and give equal rights to non Jews (although I assume he would go further and privilege Muslims in the process), and stop its criminal practices, then it would earn the right to exist.

What do I believe? I think the USA loses a lot by backing Israel. My position has nothing to do with Israel having a right to exist, because they have a very powerful military, and whatever happens to them they have largely brought on themselves, their brutal treatment of minorities in Israel and the occupied territories makes them enemies, and it's up to them to sort out the consequences.

"They have invented a myth that Jews were massacred and place this above God, religions and the prophets."

"We ask the West to remove what they created sixty years ago and if they do not listen to our recommendations, then the Palestinian nation and other nations will eventually do this for them."

"The real Holocaust is what is happening in Palestine where the Zionists avail themselves of the fairy tale of Holocaust as blackmail and justification for killing children and women and making innocent people homeless."

"The West claims that more than six million Jews were killed in World War II and to compensate for that they established and support Israel. If it is true that the Jews were killed in Europe, why should Israel be established in the East, in Palestine?"

"If you have burned the Jews, why don't you give a piece of Europe, the United States, Canada or Alaska to Israel. Our question is, if you have committed this huge crime, why should the innocent nation of Palestine pay for this crime?"

"Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury."

"Remove Israel before it is too late and save yourself from the fury of regional nations."

"The skirmishes in the occupied land are part of a war of destiny. The outcome of hundreds of years of war will be defined in Palestinian land. As the Imam said, Israel must be wiped off the map."

"If the West does not support Israel, this regime will be toppled. As it has lost its raison d' tre, Israel will be annihilated."

"Israel is a tyrannical regime that will one day will be destroyed."

"Israel is a rotten, dried tree that will be annihilated in one storm."

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1145961353170&pagename=JPost/JPArticle/ShowFull

Is it threatening to attack Israel?

Is it preparing its fighter jets to attack Israeli nuclear projects?

Ahmadinejad talking about Israel reminds me of Reagan talking about the USSR. A lot of rhetorical bluster, but that's all.

(hezbolla) the french bombed their forces after they bombed french and american troops in beirut.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=96453§ionid=351020101

http://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2007/04/iran-balochi-insurgents-and-iraq-tango.html

Iran's government is bad and their support for terror is inexcuseable. But that doesn't mean they're engaging in genocide.

referring to the "American Empire". (Not to mention, previously, the British one) :o

is still taught as how to win a naval battle. Iran is not mary fuckin' poppins.. Not saying they need military attention, just a close eye.

But as you say, keeping an eye on them and keeping international pressure on them is critical. Of course it's easier to coordinate international pressure if you clean up your own act first. That seems to be what Obama is doing--note how now Russia is joining the effort to keep nukes out of Iran's hands.

I would encourage people to examine his claims a bit more closely.

The most frustrating one is his bizarre idea that the President of Iran was only calling for "regime change" in Israel since the phrase he used was "the regime occupying Jerusalem" rather than Israel.

This, of course, ignores the fact that he only ever refers to Israel in that manner. Israel itself is the regime occupying Jerusalem in his formulation, and that is what he (and the Supreme Leader whom he was quoting) wants to see "vanish from the pages of time."

His response to the Holocaust denial question is also craftily deceptive.

I don't recall anyone asking the question: "But aren't Iranians Holocaust deniers?" to which the obvious answer (that he provides is) "some are, some aren't." The actual question is "Isn't Ahmedinejad a Holocaust denier?" to which the answer is "Yes, he is."

Certainly one can argue that it does not matter that he is, but to restructure the question so as to create the impression that what most people believe is actually not true is rather deceptive.

He plays similar games with this belief/reality:

Belief: Iran has threatened to attack Israel militarily and to "wipe it off the map."

Reality: No Iranian leader in the executive has threatened an aggressive act of war on Israel

He changes the "belief" around when addressing it in his "reality" response.

The initial belief was that Iran has threatened to attack Israel (which he changes to an "aggressive act of war" in the reality section).

Of course, the reality that Iran has threatened to attack Israel repeatedly, but always with the implication that doing so would be in retaliation for some action (or perceived action) that Israel hypothetically would take.

None of this is to suggest that there isn't a lot of false information about Iran being spread around by those who are desirous of a conflict. In spite of that, I would encourage people not to necessarily accept Juan Cole's arguments at face value.

I would be mor specific but I'm typing on my phone.

It has a pretty interesting take on the translation issue:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/11/weekinreview/11bronner.html?_r=1

I favor diplomacy.

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as they do it. Israel deciding that palestine has no right to exist is no different than Hitler deciding Jews have no right to exist. It's past time to slaughter that damned sacred cow too. No I'm not being antisemitic. Just call Israel on their Bull shit. But that's what the Antisemitic Aegis was designed to do. Guilt people for calling Israel on it's bull shit. It's no better or different than the 70's when blacks were going through their "it's because I'm black" phase. Eventually we had to tell them. No, it's because you're a Dumb ass. Sticking a gun in the tellers face is not a legal way to make a withdraw from a bank and who owned your grandfather doesn't have a damned thing to do with it. You're going to jail because you're a crook plain and simple. The whole world needs to break it down to Israel just like that.

You are aware that the Palestinian population in the West Bank and Gaza are growing?


VI. West Bank & Gaza Strip: Arab Population (1948-2005)

B. Chart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year West Bank Gaza Strip

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1948 462,100 82,500

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1950* 765,000 240,000

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1960 799,000 302,000

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1970** 677,000 368,000

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1980 964,000 497,000

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1985 1,044,000 532,288

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1990 1,254,506 642,814

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1995 1,626,689 875,231

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000 2,020,298 1,132,063

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2005 2,385,615 1,376,289

http://israelipalestinian.procon.org/viewresource.asp?resourceID=000636#chart3

The Palestinians have been crowded into smaller and smaller bantustans. If they have a high birth rate, that doesn't justify the Israeli policy.

The recent action in Gaza was not ethnic cleansing, true. It was mass murder of defenseless civilians.

By the way does anybody know what has happened to the woman who wrote Baghdad burning?

Iran never struck another country.