Recession in U.S. May Erase Previous Expansion's Jobs, Goldman Sachs Says

U.S. Recession May Erase Prior Expansion’s Jobs, Goldman Says
By Carlos Torres


Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time in three decades, a U.S. recession may wipe out all the jobs created during the previous expansion, according to Ed McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.

Pending payroll revisions and the likelihood that employment will keep dropping in coming months mean the 8.3 million jobs created from 2003 through 2007 will be lost, McKelvey wrote in an Oct. 6 note to clients.

The only other time that’s happened in the post-World War II era was during the “aborted” recovery sandwiched between the 1980 and 1981-82 recessions, McKelvey said. “The current situation is obviously quite different,” he wrote.

The payroll count in September stood just 1.13 million above the August 2003 trough reached in the aftermath of the 2001 contraction. About 824,000 more jobs may be subtracted from the count for the 12 months through last March when the figures are officially revised early next year, a preliminary Labor Department estimate showed last week.

Goldman’s research shows a “loose” relationship between the direction of that revision and adjustments to payrolls in the following months, McKelvey said.

“Coupled with the size of the upcoming revisions, this suggests fairly strongly that the benchmark revision next February is likely to include a downgrade of the trend in payrolls since March,” he wrote. ...........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aBH460YDfWSs

used a flimsy cover while real jobs were outsourced at an ever increasing rate. SO now we don't have either flimsy fake ones OR real ones.

A large part of the Financial Service industry has been set up to administer the collection and structuring of baby boomer's retirement. Simply put, they don't need as many people for the pay-out as they do for the sale.

they should know. I trust them. :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: