Who do you think is the 1 Senator most likely threatening to filibuster the P.O?

Here is a nice analysis from OpenLeft. And based on past remarks, who do you think it is?

Source: OpenLeft
Multiple anonymous sources (quite a day for anonymous sources, eh?), are telling the Huffington Post that Harry Reid is only one or two votes shy of reaching cloture on health care bill with some sort of opt-out public option:

The first thing to keep in mind is that whip counts don't exactly work on a vote by vote basis. It is true that the leadership keeps a hard count, but many of the members who are considered solid "yes" votes can switch to undecided at times like these. When they sense the leadership really wants something, switching to "undecided" gives members a chance to negotiate something for their district.

Second, for what it is worth, my best guess based on information I have seen is that Evan Bayh is the "one" vote Reid is short (I feel good about that guess), and Ben Nelson is the "or two" vote that Reid is short (although I feel less sure about that guess). Here is why:

* Mark Pryor, Joe Lieberman and Mary Landrieu have all said they are leaning against joining a filibuster. It doesn't mean they are solid yes votes for the reason I stated above, but right now they don't appear to be the main obstacles.

* Max Baucus and Kent Conrad have never threatened to filibuster, and are highly unlikely to do so given both their leadership positions (committee chairs) and their role in crafting the overall legislation.

* Two different sources have given me two different lists of three Democratic Senators who are direct threats to filibuster. While four names total were provided in those two lists, only Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson appeared on both of the lists. Again, take that for what it is worth, since the situation is in flux, and since both I, and my sources, have been wrong before.

* Perhaps most importantly, unlike really any other Senate Democrat, Evan Bayh has directly suggested threatening to filibuster. No other Senate Democrats has made a comment like this:

That is a direct threat to filibuster, and it is out in the public record. It strongly leads me to believe that Evan Bayh is the "one" vote that Reid is short.

* While I don't have nearly the same supporting evidence, I think that Ben Nelson is the "or two." He backed away from the opt-out public option yesterday, after initially making some supportive comments. Granted, he isn't threatening to filibuster in the same way that Bayh is, so Nelson might not be the "or two."

More here: http://openleft.com/diary/15667/best-guess-on-the-one-or-two-senate-votes-needed-for-cloture

Rethugs and maybe several bluedick democans

But if we can pinpoint who it is, we can help him or her achieve infamy since this would be a historic first. It's amazing a single one of these narcissists gets to decide the entirety of health care reform. I'm surprised the cowards haven't formed a gang yet.. with Empress Snowe as leader :eyes:

it was first discussed, and although Liberman probably won't vote for the bill on the floor, he's already said he will not be part of a fillabuster.

It depends if we meet all his demands and do him some special favors, I'm sure. After all, we wouldn't want him to become irrelevant :sarcasm:

Stabbing us in the back has always been an effective way to generate the attention he craves.

With this many potential defectors, and with only one of them needed to support a GOP filibuster, I don't think a public option is going to make it.

:)

he'll toe the line. I'm not worried about Burris at all.

in history as trying to defeat the biggest and most important social reform in any of our lifetimes? :shrug: They're nuts if they do.

Blanche Lincoln is likely going to lose in 2010, so she'll be looking for a nice health insurance industry job. She's not very wealthy by Senate standards.

see what's more important to representatives of this country.

but it's really a sad statement that it could be any on the list.

I'm worried more about him.

of all the Senate Democrats he has the least to worry about for bucking the party. He's up for re-election in a red state that voted for the President by the slimmest of margins and he has a campaign war chest of over 7,000,000. The DSCC can't really threaten him with his war chest.

Also Bayh has shown in the past (stimulus, credit card reform, mortgage reform) a tendency to support big business on every issue and has been the sole source of watering down legislation when he can.

And his stand against wiretapping alone is justification enough to keep him in the Senate. He stood up when no one else would.

Since only 5% of the public will be allowed to choose it, and it doesn't kick in until 2013.