Will the Independents leave the Democrats for the Republican Party?

Their mass exodus from the Republicans in the last election helped Barack Obama and the Democrats win by the huge margins that they did. Now there is talk - and polls - indicating that they are not happy with Obama or the Democrats. Will they go back to their first love, the Republican Party? Why did they leave in the first place? And what do they think has changed? Or perhaps they will look for a Third Party?

You have to look at the data by age cohort. The independents who were voting Republican were largely baby boom and Gen X: the younger ones still give this President high marks, and will probably lean Democratic for the rest of their lives.

It's certainly a "well known fact" (whatever that means) that younger folks tend to lean more to the left. Won't many of them just turn right when they get older?

I think the best thing we have going for us is the long-term decline of the economy. When people are too comfortable they start to think they did it all on their own. When people are poor they know it's not their fault, and most of them are right. Once we don't have it as easy as we have since WWII, and people have to scrimp and think long-term, I think a lot of this right-wing mania will go away.

But not because right now young people lean left. That doesn't make sense to me.

leans further left than youth have in a long, long time. Though it's been somewhat controversial in the literature on political socialization, I still harbor a belief in the primacy principle: folks tend to vote the same way over their lifespan: if you have bothered to figure out that you're a Democratic voter at age 18, it would take some persuasive information yo get you to switch.

There's also nothing that forces folks to become more conservative as they age, and the process may actually run the opposite direction:

http://www.livescience.com/health/080310-liberal-seniors.html

Young folks lean left today because they have lived through the failure of Republican policies. Their early experiences mirror those of the folks who were young during the Depression, the most solidly Democratic voting cohort of the past century.

because they are purported to be the next "Greatest Generation" according to Strauss and Howe
who wrote Generations: The History of America's Future.

They believed thats what change meant when Obama made his eloquent speeches.

It all hinges on whether they see a significant difference from the GOP on that score because they are NOT socially liberal, and they are naturally drawn to the social conservatism the GOP represents.

At this point I dont believe they are seeing enough of a difference as far as their personal lives go between the corporate driven economics of the GOP and our party to remain completely on our side.

:rofl: They never really left.

if they lean right and toward insanity and bigotry.

Otherwise they will vote for democratic or stay at home.

Democrats need to do more to clean up the financial mess by having congressional investigations into what went wrong, and enacting strong regulations.

They also need to do as much as possible to relieve the burden on the working class.

I think steps towards those things will help greatly with enthusiasm, poll numbers and votes.

I haven't voted for a Republican since 1980, so the "first love" comment is silly IMO.

is because the few things I feel strongly about even before I left the Repubs and became a better social advocate through sites like this are seemingly being left alone by Obama.

IE I want Medicare for all, always have.

IE I want the middle class recovery, but Obama is still all Banks, and Huge Corps

IE I want Gitmo closed and the wars stopped

I think surprisingly it is because neither Obama nor the Dem Congress are giving us much "different".

So no I don't think Reformed Repubs will be going back under current circumstances. If that were so more than 20% would be identifying as Repubs. I would guess that they would be looking to energize a third party, maybe Libertarian but not if Libs don't support public healthcare and the economic health of the middle and upper middle class who are in dire straits right now.

Many actually thought the GOP wasn't right enough but many others who did "lean Dem" now are not happy with how the economy is panning out and are really upset by the bailouts. Neither party will have a monopoly on their votes. They may well vote third party.

Sometimes when I read about certain things regarding Democrats in Washington right now, I think to myself, "Why'd I bother changing, it's all the same circle jerk?"

If unemployment is above 9% in 2010 the Republicans will make gains.

If unemployment is under 9% in 2010 the Democrats will make gains.

The entire election will be about economic policy unless we have a terrorist attack or Afghanistan starts to go bad, than Republicans make gains.

It is really that simple.

So if I were a democrat in congress or in the White House, I'd be doing everything humanly possible to ensure that unemployment number is below 9%, Afganistan doesn't become a mess, and that there isn't a terrorist attack if I'd like to keep things the way they are or make gains.

The independents may be softening on the Democrats, but they are in no way moving towards the Republicans. Right now, a lot of pundits and Republicans think diminishing approval of Democratic politicians automatically translates to big Republican wins. In reality though, there has been a pretty hard shift away from what the modern Republican party represents. Once they have to start fielding candidates that have to tout the party line and throw red meat to the knuckle dragging base their disapproval will skyrocket (of course they only have 20% party ID so it can't fall much farther).

The hard right and libertarian shit doesn't play too well with the general public.

more deregulation of all corporations, imperialistic wars for the elitist empire crazed rich...gutting all social programs in favor of giving the money to corporations in the form of subsidies, incentives and tax cuts, more unions busted and more of our jobs outsourced...while exploiting and polluting of our air water & land for industry...prejudice and hate to people who are different or don't agree with their fascism....That's republican ideology....fuck the poor & workers...Lies greed & hate....the republican way and finally stealing everything including our Treasury that isn't nailed down!

and no tax cuts on the rich have been repealed.

else they would be Republicans.

Independents are a swing demographic who vote most often in Presidential elections and look to pocket book issues or charismatic appeal. They do not vote in large numbers in midterm elections unless things are very bad indeed. Except for Perot, who was able to swing people with his populist charm before going crazy as a skid-row cockroach, they are not attracted to voting for a third party. So unless we see some very charismatic populist (right or left) they will likely stay home in droves and leave it to the party faithful in the 2010 midterm. Indeed, independents are not a monolithic demographic. A lot of the youth chose to sign up for none of the above and became independents. In California, both parties base has eroded to people moving to non declared status.

Republicans will be pulling out the culture war stops to get religious crazies to vote. Those on the left better look to their GOTV campaign.

Their votes mean a great deal. That is why both parties court them.Many people don't like either party.

With all the hooplah this summer and the rushpublican "popularity" numbers are worse they were a year ago. Sure doesn't sound like a party on the "comeback". Many of the teabaggers are not happy with the GOOP...especially the Paulbots who didn't vote for President Obama last year nor did the other "libertarians".

When you look at history, third parties rise in times of social or economic stress and if the divides we're seeing now continue, I have long predicted that the GOOP could rupture if they don't win back a sufficient number of seats next year...at least 35 in the House and 7 or 8 in the Senate. We're seeing the start of the implosion in the NY-23 race and I suspect there will be some very blood primaries (Florida being one) next year that could divide what's left of that corrupt party and open the door to a "populist" third party in 2012...like a Strom Thurmond in 1948, George Wallace in '68 and Perot in '92. The RNC has lost control of its party and the moment a Steele or someone else asserts some authority watch things get real ugly.

It's hard to make any predictions on 2012 or to read tea leaves at this point, but the undercurrents are far more forboding inside the GOOP than it is with Democrats. Many of us know how painful being in the wilderness is and now that we've worked so hard to rebuild majorities, we're not letting them get away this soon.

Cheers...

Traditionally independents meant moderates, but moderates seem to be more than adequately represented by the Democratic party. Right now there seem to be a lot of former republicans drifting around under the name of independent, but only some are moderates, while others are either radical libertarian Ron Paul types or simply people who don't want to be associated with the 8 years of fail that were the Bush administration.