"Dear Prudence, Won't You Come Out To Play?"

http://contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm

Note - the above link will change when the current month is archived.

November 2009

"Dear Prudence, Won't You Come Out To Play?...

For years now, we have been focused on the macro theme of the credit cycle in all its wonderful glory quite intently. For those reading our work over the years, you’d probably characterize it as focused “to a fault”. Again and again during the current decade we asked, is it a business cycle or a credit cycle? Of course after the events of the last few years, it sure seems that question has been answered in spades. At the moment, we believe our little credit cycle obsession is still the key focal point for what may lie ahead in terms of real economy and financial market outcomes. In this discussion we want to have a brief look at components of credit cycle character that as of today simply have no precedent over the last six decades of recorded Fed data. After looking at these data points, we want you to ask yourself, should we really be expecting a “typical” economic recovery? Secondly, we want to briefly have a look at historical patterns of consumption in prior recessionary cycles and what experience of the moment may be telling us relative to behavioral patterns of the past. Let’s get right to it.

When it comes to the macro credit and conjoined economic cycle, we suggest an important item to keep in mind is that historically; US economic recoveries of the last half-century have had similar “fingerprints”. Those being pent up demand for auto’s, housing and accelerating credit usage by the private sector. Every single one. They all look the same. But what we are seeing at the current time that is completely different than anything seen over the last six decades is net private sector credit contraction. The following chart could not be more clear on the issue. Remember, the private sector is made up of households and corporations (including the financial sector).

***see link for chart


As you can see in the chart, even at the depths of any recession of the last half-century plus, year over year credit demand by the private sector has always been in positive territory. We’re currently breaking new ground. And this new ground begs the question, is Fed monetary policy impotent? Here we have the lowest Fed funds rate of a generation, and credit is contracting. Completely the opposite of what we have experienced in prior cycles. It could not be clearer. We are convinced this key fact is simply not getting the attention it deserves. Moreover, we need to remember that government stimulus efforts have been focused on reviving credit demand as of late. C4C (cash for clunker) and the tax credit for home buying was the sheep’s clothing used in an attempt to spark credit reacceleration. Crazily enough, despite the success of C4C in August, non-revolving (largely car loans) consumer credit balances actually shrank in the month! Not even C4C could offset the power of household balance sheet reconciliation. That’s a very loud message.

We know we are going to sound like pessimists and doom and gloomers with a few of these comments. We also know that we risk looking like idiots down the road by suggesting we buck the longstanding Street truism of “do not bet against the US consumer”. But every dog has its day, and we believe the consumer/household dog is barking, and loudly. Is it the end of the world? Of course not, but we believe changing patterns of behavior at the household level will have very meaningful consequence for investment outcomes ahead. As it applies to US households, two themes emerge from the numbers. First, we are currently in the beginning stages of a household balance sheet reconciliation cycle that we feel will be of a magnitude greater than anything we have seen in the post War era. Secondly, and we’re still early in this, household behavior regarding consumption is likewise in the midst of necessarily important change directly linked to the balance sheet reconciliation phenomenon. Lastly, we believe these two forces will be greater in magnitude than Wall Street may be discounting and will play out over a longer time period than the consensus now expects. Let’s get to the numbers and trends relative to historical precedent..."

charts.

The summary...

http://contraryinvestor.com/2007archives/moaug07.htm

"...As we promised, trying to keep it short, there you have it. Although we believe each individual chart tells its own story, our main point in this discussion is that collectively, these relationships represent multi-year or multi-decade trend breaks for now. They are now occurring in simultaneous fashion. Just a coincidence? We think not. Moreover, we suggest an important need for continual monitoring as these trends quite similarly hug trends in powerful demographic changes. Could it really be that as the boomers push near and into retirement, what has been their dramatic impact on asset inflation through continual expansion in household leverage is changing? We believe this is indeed the primary question and message to continue to monitor in these relationships. As we’ve suggested many a time, the credit cycle is the key. And this is a slice of the broader credit cycle as it applies to households. Households key to longer-term consumption trends important to both the US domestic and many a foreign exporting economy. You know we’ll be checking back in on a quarterly basis to monitor whether these initial trend changes remain intact, or are simply blips on the ever-growing leverage expansion screen."

being curious.

"This song is about Mia Farrows sister Prudence. When they were in india with the Ravi guy, they were spending much of their time meditating. Prudence Farrow was trying to reach the highest level of meditation. She was very stressed out and everyone was worried about her. John especially took a liking to her. She would not come out of her tent. She constantly would meditate. No matter how much the boys or anyone else asked her, she wouldn't come out. So John wrote the song and would sing it to her. Hence "Dear Prudence, won't you come out to play" I am familiar with the meaning of most of their songs, I've have done extensive research. I am a huge Beatle fan, I love this band, the greatest band to ever play.

I just finished reading Patti Boyds' "Wonderful Tonight." As stated above, Dear Prudence is when all of the Beatles and their wives were in India with Mia Farrow and her sister, Prudence. She got so heavily into meditation she locked herself into her room for days.

Lennon wrote this song and they would set outside her door and sing it every morning in an effort to get her to "come out and play".

http://www.lyricinterpretations.com/Beatles/Dear-Prudence