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Swine Flu Cases Overestimated? Study Of State Results Finds H1N1 Not As Prevalent As Feared

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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 05:02 PM
Original message
Swine Flu Cases Overestimated? Study Of State Results Finds H1N1 Not As Prevalent As Feared
CBS) If you've been diagnosed "probable" or "presumed" 2009 H1N1 or "swine flu" in recent months, you may be surprised to know this: odds are you didn’t have H1N1 flu.

In fact, you probably didn’t have flu at all. That's according to state-by-state test results obtained in a three-month-long CBS News investigation...

CBS News learned that the decision to stop counting H1N1 flu cases was made so hastily that states weren't given the opportunity to provide input...

While we waited for CDC to provide the data, which it eventually did, we asked all 50 states for their statistics on state lab-confirmed H1N1 prior to the halt of individual testing and counting in July. The results reveal a pattern that surprised a number of health care professionals we consulted. The vast majority of cases were negative for H1N1 as well as seasonal flu, despite the fact that many states were specifically testing patients deemed to be most likely to have H1N1 flu, based on symptoms and risk factors, such as travel to Mexico...

With most cases diagnosed solely on symptoms and risk factors, the H1N1 flu epidemic may seem worse than it is. For example, on Sept. 22, this alarming headline came from Georgetown University in Washington D.C.: "H1N1 Flu Infects Over 250 Georgetown Students."

H1N1 flu can be deadly and an outbreak of 250 students would be an especially troubling cluster. However, the number of sick students came not from lab-confirmed tests but from "estimates" made by counting "students who went to the Student Health Center with flu symptoms, students who called the H1N1 hotline or the Health Center's doctor-on-call, and students who went to the hospital's emergency room."

Without lab testing, it's impossible to know how many of the students actually had H1N1 flu. But the statistical trend indicates it was likely much fewer than 250...

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/21/cbsnews_investigates/main5404829.shtml




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Junkdrawer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
1. Here's the irony:
Many, many people will skip the vaccine due to the hysteria generated by those pushing the vaccine.
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uppityperson Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
2. There is a need for an inexpensive,accurate, readily available influenza test
Having done the rapid flu test on several people and having it come back negative even though they had all the basic influenza signs/symptoms, having researched and found that there are a high number of negatives, and knowing the blood test is expensive and not often done, it would be VERY good to have an inexpensive, accurate, readily available influenza test to be able to more accurately determine true numbers of cases of which type influenza.

That said, I have had influenza a number of times over the yrs, but never got tested since I would not have changed my treatment or care.
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stray cat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 05:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. CDC has stated deaths from H1N1 are twice as high as estimated
the cdc does PCR tests which are accuarate
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 06:06 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. link?
since the CDC is the source for death estimates, one wonders how deaths could be "twice as high as estimated".
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Swede Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 06:04 PM
Response to Original message
4. Ontario reports 24 H1N1 deaths in 72 hours.
I kinda think it's not being overestimated.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=1517
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 06:08 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. that's a link to an entire message board, not to any specific information.
how about a real link?
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Swede Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 06:11 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. It's about half way down the page.
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Hannah Bell Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Nov-14-09 06:29 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. thanks. but a tad anomolous:
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swilton Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-15-09 03:11 PM
Response to Original message
9. What Else is New
Our government tries to scare us to death to prove that they have a job.
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