China Makes A Bold Move In Central Asia, Takes U.S. By Surprise

Some good (albeit long) articles about new pipeline developments...a real game changer. Muy importante!:


China resets terms of engagement in Central Asia
By M K Bhadrakumar

Nursultan Nazarbayev has a way of drawing lines in the sand. The president of Kazakhstan recently told global oil and metal majors that new laws would allow only those foreign investors that cooperate with his industrialization program to tap his nation's mineral resources.

"We will work only with those who propose projects helping diversification of the economy," he said at a December 4 investment conference in Astana, the Kazakh capital, which was attended by ArcelorMittal, Chevron, Total, ENRC and other investors. To any unwilling to collaborate, he said: "We will look for new partners, offer them favorable conditions and resources to fulfill projects."

..snip..



A pipeline to the heart of Asia ...
Nazarbayev's message was direct: Western investors could keep their money if interested only in exploiting Kazakhstan's mineral wealth. The president was speaking as a momentous event in the history and politics of Central Asia was resetting the terms of engagement for foreigners in the region: the development of an ambitious 7,000 kilometer pipeline to link the region's gas fields to cities on China's eastern seaboard.

Ten days after Nazarbayev spoke, Hu arrived on a Central Asian tour for the formal commissioning of the 1,833-kilometer pipeline connecting gas fields in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan (and possibly Russia) to China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region.

..snip..

There was widespread skepticism among observers whether the Central Asia pipeline project would see the light of day. Indeed, China pushed ahead against Western views that last year's renewed unrest in Xinjiang put it at risk. "China is putting a lot of eggs in one basket,'' one British expert said. "An awful lot of oil and gas is coming through a small region. Looking now at trends in Xinjiang, you could ask whether a route from Central Asia is actually more secure than routes through Southeast Asia or the South China Sea."

The implication was obvious: that China's Central Asian pipeline could become a sitting duck for terrorists. As Robert Ebel, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, put it, security could be impossible if the pipelines become targets as they pass through vast stretches of sparsely populated areas in Central Asia and Xinjiang. "There is no way you can protect a pipeline along its entire length. It just can't be done", Ebel, a security expert, maintained. Unrest in Xinjiang, particularly, threatens the Central Asian pipeline, he added. "I'm sure it's causing grey hairs on the people in Beijing," he said.

... sends shock waves to Washington
The American experts have drawn a doomsday scenario for the Chinese pipeline. Writing in the Central Asia & Caucasus Institute Analyst of Johns Hopkins University in October last year, Stephen Blank of the US War College branded Xinjiang as a "pressure cooker" which Beijing is nowhere near controlling.

Growing nervousness in Washington about the Chinese pipeline was quite palpable. The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee held a rare hearing in July regarding China's geopolitical thrust into the Central Asian region. Testifying at the hearing, Richard Morningstar, the US special envoy for energy, underlined that the US needed to develop strategies to compete with China for energy in Central Asia.

This was perhaps the first time that a senior US official has openly flagged China as the US's rival in the energy politics of Central Asia. US experts usually have focused attention on Russian dominance of the region's energy scene and worked for diminishing the Russian presence in the post-Soviet space by canvassing support for Trans-Caspian projects that bypassed Russian territory. In fact, some American experts on the region even argued that China was a potential US ally for isolating Russia.

cont'd

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KL24Ag04.html


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THE ROVING EYE
China plays Pipelineistan
By Pepe Escobar

BEIJING - For all the rhapsodies on the advent of the New Silk Road, it may have come into effect for good last week, when China and Central Asia got together to open a crucial Pipelineistan node linking Turkmenistan to China's Xinjiang.

By 2013, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Hong Kong will be cruising to ever more dizzying heights courtesy of gas supplied by the 1,833-kilometer Central Asia Pipeline from Turkmenistan - operating at full capacity. The pipeline will even help China achieve its goals in terms of curbing carbon emissions.

And in a few years China's big cities will also be cruising courtesy of oil from Iraq. (See Iraq's oil auction hits the jackpot Asia Times Online, December 16.)

China needs Iraqi oil. But instead of spending more than US$2 trillion on an illegal war, Chinese companies got some of the oil they needed from Iraq by bidding in a legal Iraqi oil auction. And in the New Great Game in Eurasia, instead of getting bogged down in Afghanistan, they made a direct deal with Turkmenistan, built a pipeline, profited from Turkmenistan's disagreements with Moscow (Gazprom stopped buying Turkmen gas last April, which cost the Central Asian "stan" $1 billion a month), and will get most of the gas they need.

The running myth is that China is addicted to oil. Coal would be more like it. The No 1 global emitter of greenhouse gases, China still produces more than 70% of its energy from coal. Beijing will inevitably get deeper into biogas or solar energy, but in the short term most of the "factory of the world" runs on coal. Of its verified energy reserves, 96% are coal. ..cont'd

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KL24Ag07.html

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A Delicate Dance Of Power

A delicate dance of power
By Robert M Cutler

MONTREAL - China's emergence as an important player in the development and use of energy resources found in the Caspian Sea basin, alongside longer established interests emanating from Russia, Europe and the United States, is a reminder of the ever-changing dynamics of the region, too easily overlooked during periods of apparent statis, such as during the late Soviet era.

Yet the appearance of this new power in the region also confirms the essential stability of a core group of relationships about which others wax and wane, with a periodicity of possible future importance that China's presence can help us to identify.

Two bilateral energy relations, Kazakhstan-Russia and Turkmenistan-Russia, are of such import and duration that we can justifiably speak of the Kazakhstan-Russia-Turkmenistan triangle as the foundation for the evolution of Central Eurasian energy geo-economics. That is the case, even though the third leg of that triangle, the relations between Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, is only beginning to manifest itself through cooperation over the gas pipeline to China.

Development of hydrocarbon energy resources in Central Asia and the South Caucasus began independently of each other, although they share the same chronology. Yet despite the apparent disorder of everyday life in the region over the past decade and a half, "patterns", if not a "logic", that recur and recombine in different and ever newer ways are detectable.

In particular, it is possible to detect three phases over the past 16 years in Caspian/Central Asia energy development and its connection with the South Caucasus. ..cont'd

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KL24Ag03.html ]

:eyes:

for the goodies.

How can Obama still listen to the proponents of the same destructive policies?

We gave away much of our technology, trade secrets, and know-how in the name of big profits for the corporate oligarchy from cheap as dirt labor and the promise of access to a new Chinese middle class twice as big as America's. Now as that promise turns to dust, the American middle class is being forced to bail out the very masters who sold us up the river for a few quick bucks.

Consequences ... and we the people are paying for it - in more ways than one.

SCO is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China is building its "sphere of influence".

http://www.sectsco.org/EN/

SCO is an organization that is defenitely not publicized by the American media.

but apparently that's not the case. So not only does that put a damper on any plans to further the U.S.-backed Nabucco pipeline, but according to this article it seems that it forces us to turn to Iran.

Another surprise is obviously that China plans to go ahead with this pipeline despite apparent vulnerabilities which also implies, perhaps,
that they will be taking a much larger role in 'security' of south central Asia. Move aside NATO!

And Europe is in a fix because they MUST find a way to become part of these
changes in their neighborhood while being relatively weak militarily and dependent on energy sources beyond their immediate borders. So our old allies have some tough decisions ahead as do we.




From the first article:

Through one mega project, Beijing has what Moscow has been striving for over a decade with a piecemeal approach. The European Union's chances of winning Turkmen supplies for its US-backed Nabucco pipeline project (connecting the Caspian with southern Europe) now seem severely diminished. Moscow can heave a sigh of relief, as the Nabucco project planned to cut Russia out of Europe's direct gas trade with the Caspian.

Therefore, if there is a zero-sum game, it is like this: China's gain is Europe's loss, which in turn can be Russia's gain since Russian gas is now certain to remain Europe's main energy source for the foreseeable future. Needless to say, Europe's continued dependence on Russian energy constitutes a vital chip for Moscow in its efforts to forge partnerships with major European countries.

Indeed, Russia can now advance its ambitious North Stream and South Stream gas pipelines to Europe without constantly having to look over its shoulder for competition from rival US-backed Trans-Caspian pipelines such as Nabucco.

Again, the US and Europe couldn't have missed the Chinese warning that Beijing intends to make a serious bid at some time for the Russian gas produced in its western Siberian region as well as its European part (which are at present the principal sources of supply for Europe). In effect, China has projected itself as a competing consumer of Russian gas.

All in all, the Chinese pipeline considerably strengthens Russia's stance. This probably explains the quiet satisfaction in Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's voice when he was asked about the implications of the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline.

"The commissioning of the Turkmenistan-China pipeline is not going to affect our plans to expand our own pipeline network, which could possibly also reach China,'' Putin said. "I am referring to China's growing consumption of primary energy resources. We maintain regular, close contact with our Chinese colleagues on this issue. We know how fast the demand is growing there, and they too are closely monitoring the situation. The gas link to Turkmenistan will not undermine our plans."

Most important, the "loss" of Turkmen gas for Nabucco means that the project itself now critically depends on sourcing Iranian gas. In other words, Iran figures prominently in any serious European plans (strongly backed by the US) to diversify its gas imports so as to cut down dependence on Russian energy supplies.

..snip..

As Blank put it: "For all those who are watching for the emergence of China as a dominant economic and political player in Asia, these new deals with Russia have a profound significance that we overlook at our peril."

Obama really needs to get away from the fossils from previous administrations still trying to prove their failed ideas are valid.

He is too young to be ossified with them.

if the mullahs are gone, and a more western-friendly government comes out of it, it could make a pipeline route through iran a lot more attractive and feasible than trying to secure afghanistan and parts of pakistan for one there. and a revolt in pakistan could make it the new 'iran', in terms of its opinion of, and willingness to work with, the west.(i.e.us)

Why didn't someone in the U.S. think of cooperating with people instead of killing them?

"The New American Militarism," by Andrew Bacevich. He does a great job of discussion the belief that has evolved among U.S. leaders and citizens in general that the military option is the fastest solution for geopolitical problems.

We probably have the government we deserve, on average, because it's the government we elect.

If you haven't already noticed...we no longer have representative government.
Corruption is rampant, money rules Washington, and the reliability of our voting system in questionable at best. B. R. O. K. E. N.

but tolerate it when they forget those promises and become agents of big business.

As a people, we tolerate the corruption.

Even here on DU, when I've advocated civil disobedience, general strikes, boycotts and divesting in banks and stocks, I get shot down by the but-that-would-make-things-worse and the don't-question-the-president crowds.

I have the same concerns about electronic voting that you do. And I would be the last one to argue that we have representative government.

But I still believe we have the government we deserve until we do whatever it takes to get the government we believe we deserve.

And I for one am done supporting liars and crooks.

I think the system is broken and I'm waiting for enough people to agree on that fundamental point.

and the system itself is dysfunctional not only due to corruption but also
due to a rapidly changing world which this system seems unsuited to handle. How much time do we have?
While there is clearly an impulse to tear it down, I do wonder who holds the
vision for what will replace it?
And our values are shifting too, so who knows what will rise from the
ashes. As regards the current status quo... all the kings horses and all the kings men couldn't put Humpty together again.

completely destroying it. The only way to do that is to make the politicians more afraid of us than they are of their corporate masters. We still decide who goes to office, and all the campaign contributions only matter as long as voters are buying into all of the marketing the contributions pay for. Money only equals office if the people allow it to happen.

For that to happen, We the Sheople need to return to being We the People.

I don't know how to make that happen, but I think better definitely waits on the other side of worse.

They may not be killing people, but all is not fluffy bunnies and kitties when discussing Chinese energy corporations.

China, as a whole, is in no way a model we should follow.

I just thought it was amusing that we're fighting wars at huge cost of lives and wealth, not to mention reputation, and China sneaks in and negotiates a deal for the same gas reserves to which we thought we were ensuring our access.

The thing I found refreshing about the Central Asia scenario described in the articles was the position that any company doing business in a country has an obligation to do more than just extract wealth and resources. It's a position I admire in Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales in Venezuela and Bolivia.

I'm sure it's a terrifying feeling being on the doorstep of a powerful country like ours with precious resources the U.S. needs so desperately. Which is why the Russians have stepped up their military support for Venezuela and arms trade, and China has engaged them in trade for those resources.
We are having the door slammed in our faces whichever direction we turn. If I were them I would keep one eye looking over my shoulder.

And the karma for our actions in South America is coming back to haunt us
apparently, as they don't seem to be in any hurry to align with us as a regional trading block or a military block.

about retiring somewhere in Latin America.

I also smell sulfur.

Too bad we did not dismantle the war department and make it the peace department.. All these generals blustering & begging for war, for decades :puke:

.. for 2 decades now. Now that their trade/currency model with us is collapsing, they are going to go it alone.

They really don't need us that much any more, and they will find ways to meet their own needs without pointless wars and bullshit.

Facinating to me. There is so much to learn.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang

We'll just use our own stuff!

Hope your are sarcastic tho.

Wars are thoughtless escapades to resist change in natural resources mixed with idiology/religious institutions.

New energy and news ways of creativity I hope for American Exceptionalism for all.

Education is the best (except for nature and some mucic and arts). Love.

sarcasm emoticon out just to see who doesn't get it. Your words are spot on, my friend. In order to avoid the coming catasrophe in energy resources we should be in a WWII-style production and victory garden campaign - producing alternative energy and grid systems and localizing our food production, among other things.

Cuba learned a valuable lesson with the fall of the Soviet Union which we would do well to learn ourselves. Their supply of oil collapsed and they had to utilize every available inch of land to grow food. A sort of post-peak oil situation was upon them and they had to scramble to survive it. Here is a great documentary on how they did it that's very interesting: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VHt5QchfdQ

We (USA) should be focused on kindness rather than Empire by bullying, covert ops, lies, and violence.

The Neo-cons and Neo-Liberals are both to blame a fascist in nature.

We have so much to offer and The West in general, Russia, and China all scapegoat Islamics. No wonder there are so defensive. Their own -- Saudis and Tribal leaders sell them for Empirial support regardless of source.

there were several articles over a couple of years bringing up the point that oil/gas nations were going to use the west to drill and build pipelines. the oil and gas nations were going to control who they were going to sell to.


why should we pay with our blood and money to protect china`s gas and oil supply?

governments in the pipeline's path. Of course, Russia and/or China may take exception to that....

It's not been a secret at all. All they have to do is read Democratic Underground.