ADP: 84,000 Jobs Whacked In December, Worse Than Expected

ADP: According to today's ADP National Employment Report®, private sector employment decreased by 84,000 in December. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.

Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights -- December Report:
-- Total employment: -84,000
-- Small businesses* -25,000
-- Medium businesses** -25,000
-- Large businesses*** -34,000
-- Goods-producing sector: -96,000
-- Service-providing sector: +12,000
Addendum:
-- Manufacturing industry: -43,000

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-private-sector-lost-84000-jobs-in-december-2010-1

Ouch, I think there are hidden jobs in online sales and gift cards.

:spank:

This calls for more than one trip to the woodshed... ;-)

The bat single went up in the BOG group.

Can't handle reality, Can't handle facts, Can't handle Truth, see any of those things as blasphemous to the Football team and it's Quarterback, and therefore must be put down with extreme prejudice.

They are probably already Googling furiously to find some MSM nugget of Propaganda to snuff out this brush fire as we speak.

Critical Thinking is Criminal, AJ.

Didn't you know that?

and than they will link to articles proving my point and not see it, because they will be looking at commentary, not the actual facts in the article.

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

:rofl:

"Employment losses are now rapidly diminishing and, if recent trends continue, private employment will begin rising within the next few months."

:nopity:

He'll stop bleeding eventually.

some woo woo goes off on crystal therapy and big pharma conspiracies.

Or maybe in your case, Jamie Lee Curtis was right.

Apes Can Read Philosophy, they just don't understand it.

Speaking of Ignoring and idiots, how did you escape my list?

This is only going to add years to your sentence, young man.

Oh well, time to correct that.

*Click*.

But I think you're missing the irony.

Blessed silence.

I know that some of the job losses in those sectors are simply due to outsourcing operations to countries like China that have very weak environmental and labor standards.

A lot of job losses in manufacturing were do to the fact they have something to blame it on.

My company still does manufacturing here in the U.S. and let me tell you, it's very tough to operate with competitors that outsource to China and cut their prices by 25% or more and still make a hefty profit. We had to specialize in a niche market in order to keep things going and profitable, but it's only a matter of time before the outsourcing question is brought up again. The COO has already floated the idea of having parts made and/or purchased from China, Taiwan, and Indonesia.

I know of one company in our sector that closed a shop with 1,200 employees and replaced 3/4 of them with labor in China. All except for the top brass who continue eating the even bigger profits they are raking in now.

The were the worlds largest manufacturer of commutators.

Overnight, almost, they became the worlds largest importer of commutators. He was gone too.

The fact that our politicians don't recognize this as a severe problem is probably one of the worst things going on in this country today. These were once well paying jobs that drove entire communities. Now, they are dinosaurs and entire communities collapse around them. Then we see the economic and social mess that it creates in its wake.

We do nothing to protect workers and U.S. companies here at home, but we go out of our way to make sure that executives can make these deals and bring home tons of money for themselves.

Enjoying our lovely weather?

had to go out and buy socks a little while ago..I worry for our agri..and the porpoise are not coming by as usual right now!!

Hope you had a great holiday.. :)

fly

And had friends over, who were single, or in the midst of divorces, with their dogs for x-mas dinner. It was really a madhouse!

Down the same in November. December of 2008 was supposed to be the bottom. Doesn't look like it.
-----------------------------------------------------

Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed that a recovery was taking root and would continue to do so. That spells trouble for both bonds and stocks. Here’s why, and what to expect as a result.

Meanwhile, the implications of the NAR’s data on pending home sales are terrifying. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/01/05/tax-receipts-down-means-treasury-supply-up-professional-edition/

was the answer I got from the economic meltdown deniers.

around here the past couple of days..

geezzzzz..Dr Phool..you sure know how to f up a cheerleading party!!

;) :sarcasm: :popcorn: :rofl: :yourock: :yourock: :yourock:

fly

I hang around the house with the new Lab puppy, and post on DU when she's not chewing on my arm.

ADP press release

I directly linked an article from a website.

You cherry picked.

No more offensive when you bold things dear.

It's possible that we are turning the corner, but this news indicates we are not turning it very quickly at all.

Is not looking at things objectively. The economic downfall was a cover for many of them to ship the jobs overseas to increase profits.

I don't look for manufacturing to stop shedding jobs for a very long time.

is it a better report than the first two months of the year?



February 2009:




What about the first increase since March 2008? Bad news?

Get back to me when real jobs are being created and the downward spiral and demise of the manufacturing industry is reversed.

Thanks for acknowledging that the OP is bogus spin.

and each month the losses are smaller and smaller going to the positive..you did not think that a snap of fingers would move a 700,000 job loss per month to the positive did you...

I'd lose a lot of blood at first, and less blood later. The question after I get to the Hospital is will I walk again. The administration's "job creation" efforts have assured me, no but we got a nice electric wheel chair for you.

We are going to be in positive job growth next month and maybe revisions will find us in positive job growth this month

That is real time data in a database based on payrolls. Not the squishy government stats.

According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, "Nonfarm private employment decreased 84,000 from November to December 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The December employment decline was the smallest since March of 2008. Employment losses are now rapidly diminishing and, if recent trends continue, private employment will begin rising within the next few months."

:rofl:

You made the claim of revisions. It was also seasonably adjusted (I.E the hard numbers are bigger).

You need to create 125,000 jobs a month to break even.

"That is real time data in a database based on payrolls. Not the squishy government stats."


I just pointed out what the article your op is based on said..

"Employment losses are now rapidly diminishing and, if recent trends continue, private employment will begin rising within the next few months."


As I posted:

We are going to be in positive job growth next month and maybe revisions will find us in positive job growth this month

It isn't a government report which comes out awesome, than turns to shit by the 3rd revision after no one is reporting.

:)

That's the important facet that needs to be explored. I'd also like to see the pay/compensation that these people are getting as part of these new jobs.

We can create all of the McJobs that we want, but it won't reverse the trends when it comes to poverty, standard of living, etc. etc. etc.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100104/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writer Christopher S. Rugaber, Ap Economics Writer – Mon Jan 4, 1:07 pm ET

WASHINGTON – An unexpectedly strong report on manufacturing activity Monday bolstered confidence that the nation's factories will help sustain an economic recovery.

The report by a private trade group signals that industrial production is likely to keep expanding in coming months, economists said. That could lead, in turn, to increased hiring and job creation.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index read 55.9 in December after 53.6 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth

If the job creation and hiring does happen here in the states, that will be a welcome change. But I have my doubts, since so many used this as cover to send jobs overseas and to cut the over 45 workforce. I know because I'm heavily involved in the manufacturing and service sector and I've seen first hand.

I don't do any payroll reporting until the 15th of the following month. Sales are reported on the 25th. Where do ADP's figures come from? Do you know?

I assume when you terminate an employee, you notify the people paying them the terms of severance for the system.

At best, it will be a lukewarm accomplishment when we stop shedding jobs, but the damage has been done to the manufacturing and goods producing industries. It won't be reversed with the current policies and the realignment of wealth will still be at the top, while many, many struggle.

attacked so vehemently by certain posters.

Thanks for answering the question.

I think Friday the Labor Dept. numbers come out, and I guarantee you they'll be higher.

Don't take my word for it. Look at them yourself when they come out. I've been commenting on that discrepancy for about 2 years now.

I actually think the ministry of propaganda is going to drop more people from the U3 numbers to cover it up and certain posters here will report the U3 without reading the rest of the report.

PIMCO said that they are no longer buying and are selling US and British treasuries.

An indication that a whole lot of shit is gonna hit the fan down the road. They're very wired, and usually right. And it's legal to make trades on the debt market, based on non-public knowledge.

Supply and Demand.

Higher interest, less money to artificially boost the economy with government spending financed by borrowing.

....

Well paying jobs are drying up. Manufacturing is rapidly becoming a dinosaur.

This is a major problem any way that you spin it.

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

February:

Certainly not in these sectors and usually in the service sector, where wages are not comparable for the most part.

Please try again later.

If you feel you've reached this recording in error, please wait 15 minutes, and I'm sure I'll be able to find something to Copy/Paste for you.

Love,

ProSpin.

This has been the trend for several quarters now. It is not a positive development.

The jobs coming in are, on the whole, low-paying jobs.

It's funny, because the GOP did this for years under Bush and the same people cheerleading the "jobs" being created today were railing against this when the GOP was using it as their own propaganda piece.

regardless of who is in charge.

before you can go into the positive numbers, you need to lower the negative numbers. It is expected, current trends holding, that we will have positive growth by the first quarter.

Of course trends are good... and all that

How life?

watching apocalypse man, apart of the refresher the fact that they are ... running programs like this... is scary.

Well, at least we don't have snow. :)

we will watch the reset of the country dig out (as well as Northern Mexico... this blast is reaching all the way to ahem parents in mexico city)

You get more desperate every day.

And more obvious.

is that either you are married to Tim Geitner or Larry Summers, or are HEAVILY invested in both the equity and Treasury markets. It's either that or you are seriously wealthy, like "fuck you money" wealthy.

These are the only three things that could explain your fervent adherence to this dystopic macro-economic fantasia you continually promote here.

Kisses,
GR

and November's jobs losses were revised DOWNWARD from 169,000 to 145,000.

:thumbsdown:

Remember, 125,000 jobs need to be added each month just to keep pace with population increases.

sorry to burst the doom bubble

That's the problem. We're not anywhere near the end of the woods yet.

with no flash light and Rahm Emmanuel taking a bribe from the Big Bad Wolf to let us know when we get to Grannys.

I'm sure when the jobs report goes positive, there will be a lot of cheerleading. But once you dig into it and realize that the jobs that were created aren't well-paying jobs that can keep up with what people need to live, you'll get shouted down as a naysayer.

I've been preaching about the lack of well-paying jobs since the Bush years and I'm not going to stop now just because we have a Democratic President. A pile of shit is still a pile of shit, regardless of whose lawn its on.

With a little bounce of recovery and then back to deep recession again?

n/t

..

Keep your eye on the Treasury Bond auctions and interest rates. Interest rates rise, yes. The government still able to borrow and re-finance the deficit, no.

Is there a good article on this?

MSM wouldn't know how to report it.

Eventually people are going to demand inflation priced into bonds with over 1 year duration when they realize we will monetize our debt. Particularly with the FED Mortgage Backed Security bailout that is going on right now...btw, I thought that was what TARP was originally for.

Our leaders are getting almost amusing to watch right now.

What exactly did TARP do if it didn't bail them out?

That can't have been all!

:rofl:

They should be my hookers and coke!

:evilgrin:

n/t

Recession over

period

of a paycheck working McJobs.

too bad for the doomers and haters

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34643658/ns/business-businessweekcom/

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is quick to admit that he doesn't "particularly enjoy heights." So why would he climb into a cherry picker to be lifted 40 feet in the air?

To show off a 196,000-square-foot office park in the Cincinnati suburb of Milford to executives from Tata Consultancy Services, India's biggest tech company and a thriving part of the Tata Group conglomerate.

To sweeten the deal, Strickland threw in $19 million in tax credits and invited the TCS crew to a state dinner at the governor's mansion. "The economy is difficult," Strickland says. "I will go wherever I can to find jobs."...

We should boycott Ohio!!!1111

:thumbsdown:

You really think it's a good thing for a state to be so desperate that it'll encourage foreign investment knowing that large portions of the profits will leave the jurisdiction in order to get crumbs for its residents?

Tell me, where are the well-paying jobs these days? Where are the jobs being created?

Don't bother, I don't need to hear bullshit spin.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2010/db2010015_516128.htm

...Unemployment in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metro area that includes Silicon Valley was 11.8 percent in November, down from the August record of 12.1 percent, according to California's Employment Development Department. Applied Materials Inc. and Sun Microsystems Inc. in Santa Clara and Adobe Systems Inc. in San Jose announced more than 5,000 job cuts since October amid falling sales of computer chips, software and equipment.

Commercial property foreclosures will at least double in 2010 and job growth won't return for two years after that, held back by U.S. consumers who are saving more and "getting back in line with sustainable spending habits," Haveman said.

DOMINO EFFECT

Bloated inventory and tight lending standards will curtail office construction in pockets around California for "the next several years," said Jack Kyser, founding economist of the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.

"That means there won't be jobs for construction workers and hence no tax revenue from sales of construction materials," Kyser said. "It is the ultimate domino effect."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126263231055415303.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

The number of Americans filing for personal bankruptcy rose by nearly a third in 2009, a surge largely driven by foreclosures and job losses.

And more people are filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which liquidates assets to pay off some debts and absolves the filers of others. That is significant because a 2005 overhaul of federal bankruptcy laws aimed to encourage Chapter 13 filings, which force consumers to sign onto debt-repayment plans in exchange for keeping certain assets.

The changes were designed to make it more difficult for people to shed their debt, particularly in a Chapter 7 filling. A "means" test, for example, was introduced to separate those who could afford to repay their debt from those who couldn't. A Chapter 7 filing is off the table if the means test determines a person is able to pay back at least a portion of the debt after it is restructured.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adEjJ0gcev7Q&pos=4

an. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said he sees about a one-third chance the U.S. economy will slide into a recession during the second half of the year as fiscal and monetary stimulus fade.

“It is not a low probability event, 30 to 40 percent chance,” Krugman, an economics professor at Princeton University, said today in an interview in Atlanta, where he was attending an economics conference. “The chance that we will have growth slowing enough that unemployment ticks up again I would say is better than even.”

Krugman, 56, said the Federal Reserve’s plan to end purchases of $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of federal agency debt in March could spur an increase in mortgage rates and lead to declines in home sales and prices.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers, seeking to revive credit markets, cut the benchmark interest rate almost to zero in December 2008 while switching to asset purchases and credit programs as the main policy tools. The U.S. central bank has expanded its balance sheet to $2.24 trillion from $858 billion at the start of 2007.

“Probably mortgage rates go up some,” Krugman said. Housing sales may “falter,” he added.

.....

too bad

Since they switched quickly when he started talking in a positive light about their health care "reform".

is the real story there.

Krugman hasn't been exactly optimistic about the current economic environment. Many economists feel the same.

If he's out there saying 30-40%, it's probably worse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/opinion/04krugman.html

That 1937 Feeling

By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 3, 2010

Here’s what’s coming in economic news: The next employment report could show the economy adding jobs for the first time in two years. The next G.D.P. report is likely to show solid growth in late 2009. There will be lots of bullish commentary — and the calls we’re already hearing for an end to stimulus, for reversing the steps the government and the Federal Reserve took to prop up the economy, will grow even louder.


But if those calls are heeded, we’ll be repeating the great mistake of 1937, when the Fed and the Roosevelt administration decided that the Great Depression was over, that it was time for the economy to throw away its crutches. Spending was cut back, monetary policy was tightened — and the economy promptly plunged back into the depths.

This shouldn’t be happening. Both Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, and Christina Romer, who heads President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, are scholars of the Great Depression. Ms. Romer has warned explicitly against re-enacting the events of 1937. But those who remember the past sometimes repeat it anyway.

As you read the economic news, it will be important to remember, first of all, that blips — occasional good numbers, signifying nothing — are common even when the economy is, in fact, mired in a prolonged slump. In early 2002, for example, initial reports showed the economy growing at a 5.8 percent annual rate. But the unemployment rate kept rising for another year.....


If the economy were doing fine, Krugman would not be arguing for more stimulus money.

If you feed them too much reality, to fast, they'll :puke: :puke: :puke:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/oil-prices-push-above-81-per-barrel.html

Oil Prices Push Above $81 per Barrel

From the NY Times: Oil Surges Above $81, Driven by Several Factors

A combination of frigid weather, expectations of an improving economy and new tensions between Russia and Belarus catapulted crude oil prices above $81 a barrel on Monday.
Higher prices could impact the U.S. economic recovery (it is probably time to start watching U.S. vehicle miles driven again).

Back in the Spring of 2008, we started seeing many signs of potential demand destruction - including fewer U.S miles driven, Asian countries reducing gasoline subsidies, and China stock piling oil for the Olympics.

And maybe we are seeing the first signs of demand destruction again, since the Dept of Transportation reports that U.S. vehicle miles declined in October: Traffic Volume Trends....

I hope a bunch of them were freepers too.
See how they like this country's insurance shit sandwich.

:patriot:

So, in fact we gained jobs. We just didn't get to work 'em.

:sarcasm:

I get the H1-B stuff at work, begging me to hop onto the newest big thing in the industry - hire people from out of the country to come in and do the work for you - at a lower price!!!

It's pathetic that we are still allowing this to go on. I've got two full drawers of a filing cabinet filled with applications from people in our area desperately looking for work.

:wtf: :wow:

sez it all.

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

where it can be seen.

Or McDonald's is hiring sociologists.

We sent out a massive amount of Xmas cards this year. More than usual, probably in lieu of an actual visit and gift exchange.

Let's say there was a 10% increase in both. It still probably doesn't cover the retail missing in the tax data. 10% sounds huge but if someone told me there was a 5% decrease in traditional retail and a 10% increase in those categories, they would have to be half the size of the traditional to make up for it.

:shrug:

has done neither. Indeed, they haven't even tried.

The consensus among economists was that the ADP report would show a drop of 90,000 jobs.

It showed 84,000 instead... 6,000 better than the projection.


It is also the best ADP report in 25 months.


In summary... It is good news.


But AllentownJake has an agenda.... so he's dishonest.

The consensus was for 75K jobs lost, not 90k. Therefore, the number came in 9,000 worse than projected.

I'm sorry, but I didn't hear from one single, solitary analyst today who considered this report "good news".

What's in the water you people drink?

Well it's better than the hate mail.

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-private-sector-lost-84000-jobs-in-december-2010-1

So 84K is actually 9,000 more jobs lost than what they expected, according to the article. I don't know where you got your 90K figure from; it's certainly not in the article Jake posted.

when I have splitting headache!
:rofl:

But can't find a link to back it up.

Anyone have one?

Because I'd like to have that link handy to shove in the cheerleaders faces.

Also-K & R the OP! :kick: