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Nate Silver gives Coakley 25% chance of victory

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Irish_shark Donating Member (133 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:52 PM
Original message
Nate Silver gives Coakley 25% chance of victory
SILVER: "Right now, our trusty little model of Massachusetts gives Martha Coakley just a 25 percent chance of prevailing tomorrow. Intrade also puts her odds at about 1 in 4. My subjective assessment might be a little better than that, but not much."

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/25-0.html

Let us pray.
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PM Martin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:54 PM
Response to Original message
1. unless dems come to vote.
sad.
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pnwmom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
2. Now that's depressing. n/t
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:55 PM
Response to Original message
3. who?
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Irish_shark Donating Member (133 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. Nate Silver
Edited on Mon Jan-18-10 10:59 PM by Irish_shark
"The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions – he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states – won Silver further attention and commendation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

In April 2009 he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by TIME Magazine. http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/0,28757,1894410,00.html
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ddeclue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
4. That's about right folks - if Boston turns out in large numbers she might win..
otherwise it's game over.
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:57 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Game over, Man!
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qazplm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #6
18. They cut the power??!
How could they cut the power??
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Drunken Irishman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
5. So you're saying there's a chance?
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:00 PM
Response to Original message
8. I thought he called a toss up. 25% chance is not a toss up.
What's with that?
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Irish_shark Donating Member (133 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. Maybe he called it a toss-up 24 hours ago. He updates frequently n/t
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dkf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. Sigh.
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BrklynLiberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:00 PM
Response to Original message
9. That is beyond depressing...
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tekisui Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:04 PM
Response to Original message
11. Pray nothing. Get out the vote.


I just can't see it happening like that.
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leftygolfer Donating Member (287 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:05 PM
Response to Original message
12. It's a 1 in 4 shot...
I still say toss up. But even if he's right...at 1 in 4...that's not impossible by any means. we can do this. we need to do this.
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:06 PM
Response to Original message
13. It's time to fire Rahm. He's repeating his 1994 performance. (nt)
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FreeJG Donating Member (304 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Rahm runs the congressional races...not the senate it's Sen. Bob Menendez
head of the democratic senatorial campaign committee, or DSCC
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:32 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Rahm is CoS now just as he was in 1994. Fire him. (nt)
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Skittles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-18-10 11:24 PM
Response to Original message
16. let us pray? no, let us VOTE
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