Scott Brown vs. Martha Coakley: will bad weather affect vote? (could help Democrat Coakley)

As the Scott Brown vs. Martha Coakley contest for the Massachusetts Senate seat comes to a head, some experts say bad weather on voting day Tuesday could help Democrat Coakley.


The forecast in many parts of the state calls for cold, wet weather – which could keep some voters at home.

That could ultimately benefit Democratic candidate Martha Coakley, says pollster David Paleologos of Suffolk University in Boston, who has conducted polling on this race.

Because the worst weather is supposed to hit the more conservative towns of northern and western Massachusetts, voters who might typically favor state Sen. Scott Brown (R) could have a more difficult time making it to the polls, Mr. Paleologos says.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0118/Scott-Brown-vs.-Martha-Coakley-will-bad-weather-affect-vote

Go Coakley!!!

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS NEW
ENG TUE AND TUE NIGHT WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY MOVING TO FAR
NORTHERN NEW ENG.

FIRST SHORTWAVE ARRIVES TUE WITH WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION. EVENTUALLY THIS LOW BECOMES STRONGER BUT NOT UNTIL IT
REACHES GULF OF MAINE TUE NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND STRONGER
SHORTWAVE.

DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL QG FORCING WILL BRING
NUMEROUS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO SNE DURING TUE...WITH MODELS PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN GIVING 0.10-0.25" QPF NORTH OF THE PIKE WITH LESS TO
THE SOUTH. POPS INCREASED TO LIKELY BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO GO
CATEGORICAL ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE PIKE. TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD AND
PTYPE WILL BE MAINLY SNOW IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...BL WARMING
WITH LOW LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PRESENT SOME PROBLEMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
RI AND SE MA WITH PTYPE MOSTLY RAIN OR SOME MIXED SNOW WITH RAIN
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF PVD-TAN-GHG.

TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S TUE SO SNOW ACCUM WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON ELEVATION. POTENTIAL FOR 2-3" OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF
THE PIKE WITH LOW PROB OF 4" NORTH OF ROUTE 2. NO ADVSY AS COVERAGE
OF 3-4" IS LOW.

LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE EVENING...THEN
PRECIP SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST AS DRY SLOT MOVES IN. AS SFC LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MAINE TUE NIGHT...CHC FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WRAPPING AROUND ACROSS S NH...BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTH INVOF OF MID LEVEL LOW.

nt

Every poll which has asked the question has shown a dramatic enthusiasm gap between Coakley's voters and Brown's.

The question is to what extent WHERE the bad weather strikes offsets this.

nt

I can see how each side could benefit if its bad weather. The traditional reasoning is that the side with the most passion to vote will do better since they would go out no matter the weather. But I am not sure.