Graph: Unemployed for over 26 weeks

The BLS is reporting unemployment at 9.7%, despite the economy having lost 20,000 jobs. Here are the workers that were disappeared off the unemployment statistics because they no longer count for anything as far as the government is concerned:



http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/unemployed-over-26-weeks-and-seasonal.html


Edited to resize image.

which would be a boon for political propagandists, if it people weren't finally catching on to the way the unemployment figures work.

But seriously, this is really not a good thing. I wonder why this is getting unrecd though, it isn't as much a reflection of the president as it is on the seriousness of the times.

remove the baselines and the numbers are always "reasonable".

"Here are the workers that were disappeared off the unemployment statistics because they no longer count for anything as far as the government is concerned:"

are no longer counted. That is my understanding. In order to be counted as unemployed, you have to be actively looking for work, I believe. So, when there are no jobs and you have no more places to apply to, once you have given up for the moment, then you are no longer counted as unemployed.

That's why our numbers are never accurate. Actually, I wanted to still be working. But being over 66 and not having a job, there is no chance I will get another one so I don't apply any more. I'm not counted as unemployed.

I went to the Bureau Of Labor statistics to see how the unemployment rate is calculated. It is actually calculated by a poll of 60,000 households (about 110,000 people) that represent the demographics of the country. This poll provides the data that is crunched and that the Unemployment Rate is calculated from. This method eliminates inaccuracies that would be inherent if unemployment benefit data or the like were included. They've been doing it this way since 1940, so I guess everyone is comfortable with the methodology... I would assume that a lot of people aren't even aware of the methodology. The media hasn't been real up front with this either. Here's a link to the BLS site... it's very informative.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

This was about the only way you could get timely data.

In 2010 with computers, there is so much more data out there readily available.

For instance, the number of people who are receiving unemployment benefits, income tax collections for a month from pay rolls, etc

The other thing most people don't know, is that only 60% of the data is ready on the first Friday of the month, there is 40% more data to be crunched later in the month hence the revisions.

They would utilize "all" of the available data along with the CPS they use now, and generate a much more accurate statistic. One would think anyway.

GDP is a joke too.

There is useful information in the actual report, the statistic that is the headline number is absolutely meaningless.

Let's say that we have actual unemployment at 25% but the demographics of it are that after adjusting the people called to reflect the demographics of the population, an unusually high percentage, say 15% of people over 55 are unemployed, 7% of people between 30 and 55 and only 6% of people between 18 and 30 who are not in school are unemployed. The percentage of people 55 and over who are unemployed is much larger than the percentages of unemployed in other age groups (having already adjusted the demographic called to compensate for differences in the numbers of people in different age groups).

The unemployment figures will be way off.

As I talk to my friends who are for the most part over 50 and even 55, I find that very few are working or able to get jobs. This was not true a year or two ago. My friends have not retired early. They have been laid off, many actually over a period of years beginning in maybe 2002, and have not been able to get new jobs. I think that the unemployment figures are seriously skewed by this phenomenon.

The younger people that I know are employed. Older people, people who have worked hard all their lives, are not. The figures are incorrect.

This is the way it's been calculated for 70 years now, should it be revised... sure! My biggest issue is that hardly anyone knows how these figures are arrived at. I can't tell you how many times in the past two days I read or listened to "well... they've been unemployed longer than 26 weeks so they've dropped off the list" or "they haven't filed for benefits so they are not counted" etc, etc. It's even been portrayed this way by people in the media. So yes... these figures are 'off' and yes... these figures 'were' off when Reagan was in office and unemployment had skyrocketed... what were the "actual" numbers for '83??

Ask them if they are working, than ask them why they aren't working, and than ask them if they aren't working would they like to be working.

I wish I was making that up.

People who are homeless, or who have unstable housing living with others don't get counted. People who don't have telephones don't get counted.

People who have jobs, but they have accepted desperately low paying, short hour, part time jobs while they try to survive may be counted as simply "employed." That paints a very misleading picture about a lot of people who are on the verge of unemployment, and very under-employed. Even people with temp jobs are counted as full time stable workers. This creates the illusion that millions more people have permanent stable jobs than really do.

Numbers are gamed for policy purposes. Always have been. Always will be. Unfortunately, poor people don't have powerful people advocating for policy on our behalf, so the numbers that highlight poverty get buried, skewed, and misdirected.

it under counts the young as well. Most people my age or younger don't get land lines.

and that number growing, as people use cell phones exclusively, that lack of representation is only going to get worse.

They never give caveats to explain flaws in their numbers when they give out these numbers to the public. They just treat the numbers as accurate despite the large known flaws. It's assumed that we don't really need to know the truth with any real accuracy anyway, so why bother. :(

and you have a cell phone and a land line, the land line is probably an expense you cut. You are correct, I was looking at some interesting stats on the unemployment fund compensation and income tax collections for the past 6 months that pretty much say, the BLS survey is absolute bullshit.
:shrug:

Back during the 1980s, I was in a discussion where a right-winger was saying, "We don't have high unemployment rates like Europe does."

A colleague of mine from Germany responded, "We actually count everyone, and we don't cut off their unemployment benefits at some arbitrary point."

is unemployed. It also asks if anyone has had hours reduced. A separate and larger survey asks even more detailed questions about whether sometbody working partime seeks/needs fulltime employment.

Whether you are counted or not depends on what unemployment number you look at (U1-U6)

People who have been without work but filed at least one job application in 12 months fall into a classification of "marginally attached" to the workforce, and ARE counted in certain employment numbers, such as U6.

But the U6 unemployment number released yesterday was 16.5% Seasonally Adjusted or 18% Non-Seasonally Adjusted.

because the unemployment rate is household-survey based. It isn't based on claims filed, paid or expired.

Only four women have full time jobs. The only reason I'm making it is eventually I made my own job.

There are forgotten people out here in the mean streets, a lot of them.

It ain't all surf and sunshine out here.

And they are forgotten purposely. So that they might be put "out of mind", all effort is made to put them "out of sight" as well.

Many of those who are still hanging on by the skin of their teeth are so involved in ensuring their own survivial that acknowledging the extent of desperation out there is beyond the strength they can muster. Keep that job, never mind what. Pay for rent, electricity, food and clothing. One gets so caught up in the daily grind and quest for surviving another day, week, month that those outside of one's immediate circle are no longer acknowledged.

And then there are those who are seen in St. Moritz with their doggies wearing diamond-studded collars and little made-to-measure coats. The fact that there is so much misery and poverty out there seems to elude them. It simply isn't part of their Fendi-Prada-Versace world. Whenever I see this, I ask myself how many people could have had a hot meal for the price of that dog collar.

What's so much worse is that there is even a need in a country such as the United States to think in these terms: dog collar versus hot meals. For those living in poverty and homelessness, human dignity is torn to shreds in today's society. Having to ask for handouts and charity. Endless paperwork. Having aches and pains go untreated. Being made to feel like a leech. Sleeping in a car when it is freezing cold outside, always having to be aware of either the police or predators.

I'm at a loss when it comes to thinking of peaceful solutions. I'm afraid there won't be any.

Thanks! I'm sharing this...

And to the many sisters and brothers out there:

:grouphug:

You are not forgotten!

:grouphug:


Worse than diamond studded doggie collars, I just have a hard time seeing the "McMansions" standing empty here because they are second homes(Second homes?! Yeah. crazy, isn't it?)...meantime in the NFS lands that border these gated communities the homeless live..having to move every few days so they are not violating one law or another.

It is just illogical to have people who need a place to live and houses sitting empty- not just here but cities and towns all over America.

Last I heard over 50,000 homeless, and over 80,000 empty houses...

There is so much good that could be accomplished if it weren't for greed. Just plain old greed and wanting to out-Jones the Joneses.

"I got mine, don't worry 'bout his." Okay, so I've taken this quote out of context. Sorry, JB. Nonetheless, it is the truth.

Last time I was in Southeast Texas this past summer, there were so many brand new houses (yes, those "McMansions") standing empty in what is called the West End of that particular city. In the other, less desirable, part of town - the South End - there are dilapidated houses standing at odd angles, many still with blue tarps on the roofs after hurricanes Rita and Ike. This is where I used to live. I know the people there. That was home many years ago. Today, the only folks remaining are those who are too poor or too old to leave. It seems like a ghost town. There is nothing resembling a functioning infrastructure left.

The neighborhood had always been poor - but now it's gone. It's dead. Even the men on the corner by the bakery with Mad Dog bottles in brown paper bags have abandoned ship. Whether voluntarily or not... I don't know.

:thumbsup:

There are many - too many - of us out there. We need to find a way to consolidate our voices. They can't keep us down forever.

"In the United States, a discouraged worker is defined as a person not in the labor force who wants and is available for a job and who has looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of his or her last job if one was held within the past 12 months), but who is not currently looking because of real or perceived poor employment prospects."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discouraged_worker


Don't ask me why they don't count them. They are unemployed. I also read they don't count unemployed self employed people either. I haven't verified that yet.

are at the absolute bottom (criminal record, drug abuse, poor employment record), are the working poor (worked a service-sector job for years but got laid off), are blue-collar (are laid-off builders and the like), and are white-collar professionals.

It made the number prettier.

Playing games with the unemployment numbers, is as old as the unemployment numbers.

I was unemployed for 17 consecutive weeks last year and 19 over all. This year it's been since Jan 1 for 5 consecutive weeks.

Link: http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html

:kick:

Where will all of this end?

Can't even begin to think of the calamities out there which people have to deal with.

x(

laid off from high tech career in 2/2002. By 2/2003 -- hundreds of resumes, 3 responses (2 to sneer at me, 1 seriously bargain hunting (less than half my former pay in an area with similar col) -- I realized high tech wasn't coming back any time soon.

Didn't find another job until 9/2005. That employer poisoned me, harrassed me in my home and crossed the line when one of them trespassed and assaulted my animals, so I quit in 5/2007.

Went back to school in 9/2007. Finally found part-time work in 8/2009. By then I'd blown through what had been decent retirement savings and ended up walking the streets in local city to sell some costume jewelry to raise a little cash to keep food on the table.

My part-time job -- crap pay at a call center for financial industry -- will likely end post-tax season, so I'm looking already for a replacement job and trying again to sell my house and get out of this hell-hole.

I'm in default on my student loan because I have only been employed half the time since I graduated. :(

Unions went from 39% to 8% today --

and the Teacher's Union is now under attack by the Dems!!!

Will Americans wake up when there is absolutely nothing left to fight for???

my sister is in her 76th week...my brother has been struggling at $8.00 an hour for years now. Good news, my brother in law with 4 kids just switched from a 16,000 a year job to a 34,000 a year job, ooh hoo, he's rich now!! :(

k&r

a lifestyle comparable to that of the countries our manufacturing sector moved to. Instead of paying me a union wage $24/hr to build airports and skyscrapers, they want to pay me $24/month. And, eventually, if I'm not willing to work for that amount, they'll find someone who is.

We are run by profit- and greed-driven corporations. Every aspect of our lives is controlled by corporations, including our governance. Until we rise up and change the status quo, we will continue to slide slowly into wage-slavery and poverty.

How long will we continue to allow our children and grand-children's futures to be compromised?

given resourse depletion and biosphere degradation.

Somethin' gotta give.

We were on the edge of economic catastrophe with the potential for another great depression. We are just now seeing some positive signs of recovery. It will take a long time to get back where we were, if we ever do. The economy of the Bush era was based on bogus wealth.. however that bogus economy did generate lots of jobs. The challenge is now to replace those lost jobs with jobs based on something real and sustainable. Not an easy thing to do.

Newsflash - this entire economic system is a catastrophe for most. Getting outside of the beltway now and again might be enlightening.

But I realize that is not good enough for folks out of work.

but that can't hold up when the foundation is crumbling beneath it...

real signs of improvement in this area. Retail stores retained a higher portion of their holiday help this year than they have any year since 2006. The list of jobs advertised now on Craigs list is more than 3 times longer than it was in May or June.

Manufacturing firms on the port began adding jobs in the fall and are continuing to increase their work force. Number of containers processed through the port dropped in the second half of 2008 and that drop continued through September 2009. Since then the number of containers processed has been increasing slowly but steadily. The Longshore A & B list members are working steadily. Even some of the C & D casuals are getting called in once or twice a week.

Last year at this time 2 of my neighbors were unemployed. One returned to work in June, the other in October.

The foreclosure rate in my area has declined dramatically. Sales of both new and existing homes are picking up. Home prices are increasing gradually, too.

Are we out of the woods? Hell no. Do things look better than they did for many? Absolutely.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/employment-report-20k-jobs-lost-97.html

The percentage jobs loss for the Great Recession is now only rivaled by the Great Depression. It even beats the 1980-82 double-dip recession. The unemployment stats are so cooked now I think the true rate now even beats 1980-82.

We are going to have a structural unemployment problem for YEARS to come.

If they are still looking for work, they count in the headline number, U-3. They have not disappeared off that measure unless they have stopped looking.

My wife, who has 18 years experience in her field, has been out for FIFTY EIGHT weeks... I sure hope she gets a gig soon.
Man we sure could use the extra dough.

The only reason I didn't apply earlier was because of a liar who was the executive director of my union who said the district would fight it and say I committed "misconduct." What a lying POS.

from CNN and BLS


The 2008 looks like the mirror image of this, descending to maximum losses over the span of a year